According to China Central Radio and Television’s economic voice “World Finance”, statistics show that in the third quarter of this year, the global semiconductor market fell by 7%, declining for two consecutive quarters, and the rate is expanding. What is the reason for the continued decline in the semiconductor market? What are the structural changes in the market?
According to agency statistics, in the third quarter of this year, global semiconductor revenue was US$147 billion, down 7% from US$158 billion in the second quarter. This is the second consecutive quarter of decline in the global semiconductor market. The decline in the second quarter compared to the first quarter was around 2%.
Why does the semiconductor market continue to shrink and expand? According to expert analysis, it is mainly due to the sluggish demand for consumer electronics products. According to statistics, the upstream and downstream chip demand for consumer electronics products such as personal computers, mobile phones, and tablets accounted for about 70% of the total market, and the shipments of these products declined significantly in the third quarter, and the demand for chips also fell.
Han Xiaomin, general manager of Jiwei Consulting, said: “In the past two years, many downstream customers have stocked up and stocked up, and the inventory has been a bit too high. This year, under the condition of declining demand, everyone is in the stage of destocking. Therefore, the average unit price this year In fact, it is not ideal, and the entire communication semiconductor market is relatively weak and falling.”
From a structural point of view, semiconductors also have incremental markets, one of which is automotive chips. Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, revealed that the current shortage of automotive chips still exists. “Compared with last year, the shortage of chips is now from a comprehensive shortage to a structural shortage. But because cars need a lot of chips, the types of shortages are different. If any chip is missing, the vehicle will not be able to be delivered to consumers in the end. hands.”
Han Xiaomin analyzed that there are two major trends in the automobile market: electrification and networking. The number of chips required for a bicycle has increased a lot compared to the past. This is the main reason for the increase in demand for automotive chips.
“Globally speaking, it should be said that the sales of automobiles have not increased much at present, and are even declining by single digits. However, automobile semiconductors are estimated to have a growth rate of about 15% this year. It is still the structural aspects of the car. The problem is that new energy vehicles continue to increase in volume this year, including the increase in the share of electrification or intelligence.” Han Xiaomin introduced.
Another incremental market for global semiconductors is in the fields of industrial automation control and artificial intelligence. Chen Jun, deputy general manager and chief analyst of Sigma Consulting, predicts that, especially in the field of artificial intelligence, the growth rate of demand for some chips can reach double digits.
Chen Jun said: “In fact, industrial control comes more from the industrial automation promoted by Industry 4.0, including artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, etc. The demand for this area is still in a stage of positive growth. The current annual growth rate of industrial control The growth rate should be around 7%-8%. Artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things, in terms of AR and VR, have at least maintained a growth rate of more than 10%-15%.”
On the whole, whether it is automotive chips or artificial intelligence chips, the current market share is not high, so the trend of the semiconductor market mainly depends on consumer electronics products. Chen Jun believes that from the perspective of supply and demand, the downturn in the global semiconductor market may continue until the end of next year.
“For the entire semiconductor chip, production capacity will continue to increase in the future. From the end of this year to the end of next year, the basic increase in production capacity will be about 9%, and the supply will increase at this time. For next year’s demand, we generally see It is basically the same as this year, and may even be worse than this year. Therefore, in general, in 2023, it should be in a stage of relative oversupply.” Chen Jun said.
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