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North America and Europe have recently been hit by monkeypox epidemics, and market attention has continued to heat up. Xinhua News Agency quoted the latest data from the World Health Organization. As of the 21st, a total of 92 confirmed cases and 28 suspected cases of monkeypox have been found in 12 countries around the world. On Tuesday, the World Health Organization said outbreaks of monkeypox outside Africa could be contained and should not be made a fuss.
In fact, monkeypox outbreaks have been endemic in Africa for the past few decades. On May 23, experts from the World Health Organization stated that the countries currently experiencing monkeypox epidemics are “non-endemic countries” of monkeypox virus, with less than 200 confirmed and suspected cases of monkeypox. The local monkeypox epidemic is controllable and human-to-human transmission can be prevented. There is no need for large-scale monkeypox vaccination.
Deciphering monkeypox: Smallpox ‘close relative’, slow to mutate
At the moment when the new coronavirus is raging around the world, people are highly sensitive to the signs of the new epidemic, but it is certain that, unlike the new coronavirus, it has been 52 years since the monkeypox virus was confirmed. Not unfamiliar. Moreover, the new coronavirus is an unstable RNA virus, and monkeypox is a DNA virus that mutates slowly. The two are completely different and have different transmission methods.
Monkeypox cirus (MPXV) is a member of the genus Orthopoxvirus, a family of viruses that are DNA viruses, including the most well-known smallpox virus and vaccinia virus. Like the new coronavirus, monkeypox is also a zoonotic disease, and the modes of human-to-human transmission include respiratory droplets, blood, body fluids and contact with objects.
As early as 1958, monkeypox virus was first isolated and identified. The virus came from a cynomolgus monkey shipped from Singapore to Copenhagen, Denmark, hence the name monkeypox, but the main natural host of monkeypox is not monkeys, but Africans. Rodents, including mice, squirrels, etc. In 1970, the first human monkeypox case was identified in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
The monkeypox outbreak in the United States in 2003 was mainly spread by groundhogs. At that time, the US CDC and the Food and Drug Administration of the Department of Health and Welfare jointly issued an announcement, announcing the ban on the import of all rodents from Africa, and the prohibition of domestic production of prairie dogs and 6 genera of African rodents such as the Gambian giant rat. A variety of trade activities such as transportation, sales, and exhibitions.
The clinical symptoms of monkeypox are very similar to those of smallpox, including high fever, headache, cough, rash all over the body, and pus from the wound. Important clinical signs of smallpox infection. The disease process of monkeypox infection is gradual, the first is a rash on the face, and then it spreads to all parts of the body. The rash is filled with fluid, and then gradually forms water scars and pus scars. Finally, it dries up, becomes crazy, and falls off.
As a DNA virus similar to the smallpox virus, monkeypox mutates very slowly and is relatively stable. Previous research suggested that variola virus evolves by about 1 to 2 nucleotide changes per year, while monkeypox is slower. However, according to the latest analysis by American scholars, the monkeypox virus in this outbreak has 94 nucleotide changes and 51 amino acid changes compared with the previous one, which is already relatively large. Regarding the mutation of monkeypox virus, the current research is limited, but it has not stopped.
In terms of preventive treatment, there is no special oral drug for monkeypox, but the smallpox vaccine can play a preventive role. However, as the only virus that has been eliminated by humans, in 1980, the World Health Organization had announced its eradication, and the world began to stop vaccinating against smallpox. The United States began to stop routine vaccination in 1972, and the domestic smallpox vaccine began to stop in 1981. That said, people under the age of 40 (or 50) around the world no longer benefit from the protection afforded by previous smallpox vaccination programs, and immunity to monkeypox has declined, which may have mutated monkeypox into transmissible Stronger viruses provide convenience.
However, WHO data shows that the smallpox vaccine is 85% effective against monkeypox virus. At present, the British government has begun to provide smallpox vaccine to some medical workers or people at risk of monkeypox virus exposure. The effectiveness of the smallpox vaccine against monkeypox virus also made the secondary market suddenly become popular with a number of “monkeypox concept stocks”.
The popular monkeypox concept is fleeting
Once the monkeypox epidemic was confirmed, many “monkeypox prevention and control concept stocks” became active in the domestic secondary market, mainly in the field of detection and prevention.
On May 20, Zhijiang Bio (688317.SH) surged 16.34%, becoming the leader of the monkeypox concept stocks. As an in vitro diagnostic company, the prospectus disclosed by Zhijiang Bio in January last year shows that a total of 245 products of the company have obtained EU CE certification, including the monkeypox virus nucleic acid detection kit (fluorescent PCR method). The reagent can specifically detect the nucleic acid fragment of monkeypox virus, and can be used for diagnosis of related diseases caused by monkeypox virus infection in clinical or scientific research.
Since then, Zhijiang Bio has made it clear that its monkeypox virus nucleic acid detection kit can accurately identify monkeypox virus and assist in the accurate diagnosis and prevention of related diseases. This product has orders at home and abroad, but registration has not yet started in China, and it is only for disease control and scientific research purposes.
On May 23, Zhijiang Bio reached the daily limit. The company stated at the performance briefing that its monkeypox virus nucleic acid detection kit had recently received orders from overseas countries such as Portugal, Spain, the Czech Republic, the United Arab Emirates, as well as some domestic customs, Emergency reserves and scientific research orders for disease control. Zhijiang Bio also stated that the materials for related kit products are sufficient, and the production plan can be quickly adjusted according to demand.
In addition, Shengxiang Bio ( 688289.SH ) stated that the company has reserved monkeypox virus nucleic acid detection kits (PCR-fluorescent probe method) in its scientific research products; There are monkeypox virus nucleic acid detection kits (fluorescent PCR method), which are sold in the disease control and scientific research market, and overseas registration work including EU CE has been started; Daan Gene (002030.SZ) has monkeypox virus-related scientific research product reserves , No Xiangguang has been certified. In fact, Kaipu Bio (300639.SZ) has the laboratory detection ability of monkeypox virus, and has formed laboratory products that can be used for scientific research purposes.
On May 23, Shengxiang Bio , Soshi Bio , Daan Gene , and Kaipu Bio closed up 15.84%, 10.41%, 7.47%, and 6.00%, respectively. Also joining the ranks of the rising detection concept are Rejing Bio (688068), Rendu Bio (688193.SH), and Dean Diagnostics (300214.SZ). Similar to the trend of detection concept stocks, there are also prevention concept stocks, mainly including Baike Bio (688276.SH), Kangchen Pharmaceutical (603590.SH), Renfu Medicine (600079.SH), Chengda Biology (688739.SH) ), Yatai Group (600881.SH).
Immediately afterwards, a wave of clarification announcements was issued.
Baike Bio announced on the evening of the 23rd that the company’s chickenpox vaccine cannot prevent monkeypox, and there are currently no related products to prevent monkeypox virus. On the 24th, the stock fell 13.01%. It should be noted that monkeypox virus and smallpox virus belong to the genus Orthopoxvirus of the family Poxviridae, while varicella-zoster virus belongs to the family Herpesviridae, and the two are not the same. Vaccines are not universal, but the DNA vaccine technology platform is included in the 100g biotechnology reserve.
Kangcheng Pharmaceutical is reported to own a 5.22% stake in Urui Medicine, which is the only partner company of BavarianNordic in China and parts of Asia, while the Danish company BavarianNordic owns one of two smallpox vaccines licensed by the U.S. FDA —JYNNEOS. In this regard, Kangcheng Pharmaceutical announced that the company did not participate in nor understand the daily operation and management of Urui Pharmaceuticals, and there was no cooperation with Urui Cayman in the research direction of smallpox and monkeypox diseases, and the company did not have any research in the field of vaccines in the short term. investment plan. On the 24th, shares of Kangcheng Pharmaceutical closed flat.
As of press time, Renfu Medicine , Chengda Bio , and Yatai Group have not responded. All three have a stake in Wuhan Bowo Bio, and the vaccine developed and produced by the latter in cooperation with GeoVax includes the monkeypox vaccine.
In terms of drugs, the US CDC said that there is currently no specific treatment for monkeypox, but it can be combined with the smallpox vaccine, as well as cidofovir, Brincidofovir, tecavivir, vaccinia immune globulin and other drugs to control the disease.
This also allows Unionway (301166.SZ), which owns Tecovere in China, to catch the express train of concept stocks. However, this product is “only used for scientific research experiments and does not support clinical research.” Baipsis (301080.SZ) was also asked by investors whether it had raw materials for tecavire, and later responded that it did not have relevant raw materials and had not launched products related to monkeypox.
It now appears that most of the monkeypox concept speculation in the A-share market is “created out of nothing”. According to the 21st Century Finance and Economics report, Gaohe Investment Research Center believes that it is basically in the speculation stage of concept stocks at present, and there is no substantial performance contribution. Investors need to pay close attention to the development of the monkeypox epidemic, but also pay attention to avoid the risk of speculation in concept stocks.
On the other hand, a batch of “true monkeypox concepts” in the US stock market have also turned from ups and downs.
Tonix Pharmaceuticals’ TNX-801 vaccine is effective against smallpox and monkeypox. The stock rose 14.93% on May 20; SIGA Technology (SIGA.US) has an FDA-approved drug Tecoviride, which can inhibit 50% The in vitro replication of monkeypox virus caused the stock price to soar by 43.35%. However, the sharp rise in the above-mentioned stocks basically occurred last Thursday and Friday, after which the stock prices fell sharply. On the 24th, SIGA Technology also said it was detecting the growing monkeypox outbreak and supporting response measures.
In general, there is uncertainty in the spread of monkeypox epidemics. From the characteristics of the virus itself, the possibility of large-scale human-to-human transmission is low and the harm is relatively small. This may become the main reason for the short-lived “real monkeypox concept” in US stocks. reason. Specifically in the domestic market, A-shares have been in a slump since the beginning of the year. The Shanghai Composite Index has lost nearly 600 points, the Shenzhen Component Index has evaporated more than 3,000 points, and the ChiNext Index has returned to the level of July 2020. The market urgently needs to boost morale. “Shen Bing” has fantasies and is rushing for new concepts. Before, “Qianjin vinesu” became popular, and later “monkeypox concept” became popular.
(This article was first published on Titanium Media App by Yang Yaru, editor by Sun Cheng)
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