I’ve always wondered about the addictive nature of games – why are people so addicted to games, and some people just can’t stop? So, I checked the mechanism of action of some addictive substances, such as drugs, alcohol, etc., and finally found that the main reason for addiction is that after these substances enter the human body, people can be mentally satisfied, such as excitement, sedation, etc., thus To gain a sense of pleasure, from a chemical mechanism, the human body produces dopamine, the so-called “happy molecule”. The addictive nature of games is also the effect of dopamine, which makes people addicted to games to produce spiritual satisfaction, that is, a sense of happiness.
But why do people seek this dopamine high? Fundamentally, this is the result of millions of years of human evolution, that is, the human body will produce a behavior of seeking advantages and avoiding disadvantages. People will feel lost in real life. At this time, they need to gain some sense of accomplishment to alleviate their loss, even if they go to the illusory world for help. So we found that people who are addicted to drugs, alcohol and games have a bad life, both children and adults. Scarce resources determine the structure of the human social pyramid—people at the top of the pyramid are a minority. Such a structure must have many “unsatisfactory”, the more you go to the bottom of the tower, the more troubles, these emotions drive the human body to find the port of release, which is the real demand of addictive substances. This kind of demand is different from entertainment. Many people compare games with short videos and think that short videos are replacing the needs of games. I personally think it is inappropriate. Glory, but feel lost. Similar to pure entertainment projects such as movies and TV series, short videos are just a means of spending time. In fact, short videos have partially replaced long videos, but have not had a significant impact on the “addictive demand” of games.
So, what kind of “game” can meet people’s needs? Personally, the difficulty factor is an important indicator. Too simple can not stimulate people’s “sense of achievement”, too difficult often disappoint people, not only can not meet the needs, but the opposite. Therefore, the game must be moderately difficult, and people need to overcome some difficulties when immersed in it, but there must be a certain clearance rate, so that people can get a “sense of achievement” from it. Moreover, we found that there is an inverse relationship between the difficulty factor and the people covered. Relatively simple games cover more people, and large-scale computer games are often the hobbies of heavy gamers.
With the development of Internet technology, the form of the game has also undergone two stages of evolution: from the original stand-alone game to multiplayer battle. A single-player game is relatively simple, in which humans and machines play against each other. Once a game is completed, the game’s attractiveness to players rapidly declines, and for a single player, its lifespan is relatively short. In a multiplayer game, because it is a human-to-human battle, the opponent is no longer a rigid machine program, but a person with strong learning ability. The evolution of both sides increases the uncertainty, thereby improving the playability of the game. , but different player levels reduce the playability. In order to solve this problem, player matching is generated, that is, the computer matches according to the player’s level, beginners to beginners, heavy players to heavy players, so that for a single player to match That said, the longevity of the game has grown considerably.
The above has made a brief review of the nature, needs and form of the game. So, why did Tencent gradually grow into the current game king in the market gap where Lianzhong dominated chess and card, Shanda performed “Legend”, and NetEase recreated “Journey to the West”? The market is dazzled by the classification of games, such as RPG, ACT, AVG, SLG, RTS, MMORPG, FPS, FTG, MOBA, etc. It is like entering a hypermarket, and researching each category not only takes a lot of time, but also unnecessary . Let’s take the commodities in the store as an example. There are many kinds of commodities in supermarkets, but they can be divided into two categories. One category belongs to brand products, and the differentiation is very significant. The other category belongs to the general commodity attributes, the differentiation is not obvious, the competition is very fierce, and the channel has a relatively high right to speak, such as Shuanghui’s ham sausage and Yili’s milk. For a wide variety of games, it can also be divided in this way, such as “World of Warcraft”, “Darkness”, “Three Kingdoms”, etc. These games have a strong brand effect, and some have even been made into movies that swept the world. These games are dependent on channels. Low, often established their own publicity channels; and other types of games, such as chess and card games, speed racing, fighting, gun battle, etc., it is difficult to tell which game occupies the minds of consumers, and users are more concerned about such games. Focus on playability. If we follow this clue to analyze, we find that Tencent’s games basically fall into this category, chess and card, “QQ Speed”, “Dungeon and Warriors”, “League of Legends”, “Peace Elite”, etc. fall into this category. However, such games are not significantly different, with general commodity attributes, and consumers pay more attention to playability. The playability of the game is determined by several indicators: one is whether the user can get the greatest sense of achievement from the game; the other is the user matching degree, that is, whether it can be well matched for users of all levels; such games generally There is no first-mover advantage, and the channel advantage plays a decisive role in it. Specifically, the social nature of Tencent QQ/WeChat enhances the playability of the game, and users can easily see which friends are playing which games, which increases the possibility of viral spread of the game, as multiplayer battles require mutual understanding , Compared with strangers, the team of friends greatly enhances the playability of the game, and at the same time, the sense of achievement obtained by each other after winning is also greatly improved, and finally converges to a significant improvement in the user experience. As a result, we saw that Tencent took advantage of the social attributes of QQ to quickly gain a dominant position in Lianzhong’s chess and card field, and “Peace Elite” came from behind to defeat “Wilderness” to become the king of gunfights. In addition to using the social attributes of QQ/WeChat to improve the playability of Tencent games, the mass base of its products cannot be ignored. For example, as a game with a broad mass base, chess and cards have a large offline market, and early arcade games The speeding and fighting modes of the game have also been imprinted into the minds of consumers very early, and the shootout in childhood is also a game with a broad mass base. These game forms (chess and cards, fighting, gunfight, speeding, etc.) It is easy for people to get started, and Tencent QQ/WeChat also covers the largest population. The two have the same tonality and overlap greatly, so that Tencent Games covers the largest user group. As we all know, user matching requires a sufficient number of users, the more The more accurate the user matching, the more accurate the user matching, and the higher the playability of the game. Due to the mutual promotion of the two indicators of winning achievement and user matching, Tencent Games has achieved a user experience that is much higher than that of competing products. At the same time, because it covers a large enough user group, the krypton gold effect does not need to be extreme, making Tencent games. The user experience of the game has been further improved, and finally achieved its king status, making it difficult for competing products to compete, occupying the largest share in many categories, such as chess and card, “QQ Speed”, “King of Glory”, “Peace Elite” and so on. For this type of game, even if there are some elements that improve the user experience in competing products, Tencent can quickly follow up. However, Tencent games rely on the sociality and playability advantages brought by the largest user base, but it is difficult for competing products. Transcendence, this is also the reason why “Glory of the King” and “Peace Elite” have dominated the screen for a long time in the team duel game, breaking the curse of the half-year lifespan of mobile games.
For another type of game with brand effect, such as “World of Warcraft”, “Darkness”, “Three Kingdoms”, “Westward Journey”, etc., its core originates from the IP attributes of the game itself, and the storyline of the game itself occupies the Great mental guidance, just like when I tried Diablo, in addition to the playability of character fighting and customs clearance, it is more about entering the dialogue plot and map guidance to immerse players in the game’s storyline, and the players are more It is guided by the storyline in the game, rather than a simple duel. Therefore, this type of role-playing game can be differentiated according to its own storyline, and its dependence on channels is relatively low. The storyline and exquisite pictures play a great role in stimulating players’ sense of immersion. Nearly two The hotly debated “Wukong” also has this feature. Since this type of game relies on the storyline, its demand for social attributes is relatively weak, and the playability of team battles is also weak. At the same time, due to the differentiated characteristics, this type of game cannot maximize the user group. Each game has its own unique user group. Just like Maotai has a Maotai user group, consumers of Wuliang may not be used to it. The sauce is fragrant, but this type of game does not have a strong demand for player matching itself, and is more similar to man-machine battles. Therefore, from the perspective of social team formation and user scale, the advantages of QQ/WeChat cannot be reflected in such games. Therefore, Tencent does not have an advantage over competing products in this category. Although Tencent’s game R&D team is not weak, in the competition of this type of game, it is more like shooting film and television works. It is almost difficult to predict which game will explode and when. Today, NetEase released the explosive product “Journey to the West”, and tomorrow Mihayou’s “Yuan Shen” will occupy the air. Who knows which will be the next one?
Therefore, I believe that Tencent’s games have two common characteristics: First, Tencent’s games have a broad mass base, so they can cover the widest number of users, and user matching and balanced Krypton Gold can improve the playability of Tencent’s games Second, Tencent’s games are mostly based on direct confrontation between the two teams. This typical social attribute can take advantage of the powerful channel advantages of QQ/WeChat to improve user experience. The mutual promotion of the two makes it difficult for competing products to surpass them, which determines that the lifespan of Tencent games in the same category is relatively long, far exceeding the so-called 6-month lifespan in the market . However, in the field of games with differentiated IP attributes, it is difficult for Tencent to take advantage of the channel advantages of QQ/WeChat, which is also a space for competing products to survive. In this field, due to the explosion of similar film and television works, there are almost no rules to follow. We also It is difficult to say that Tencent cannot create explosive products. Of course, given Tencent’s acquisition capabilities in the game field, the probability of explosive products is still very high. I am not surprised or panicked by the appearance of “Yuanshen”. This is a very normal thing. There will be “Yuanshen” without “Yuanshen”. Who knows who will win the next game Woolen cloth?
I am not pessimistic about Tencent Games. First of all, games with general commodity attributes naturally occupy more shares, and due to the number of users, krypton gold is relatively restrained, and there are various ways of monetizing and playing such games. “I understand. However, don’t hold too high expectations for Tencent’s games to go overseas. For overseas, the company’s goal is to open 50% to 50%, and I’m relatively conservative, only taking half of the domestic price. Tencent’s gold master feature can help it make overseas acquisitions while building its own publicity and distribution channels. Therefore, I take the lower limit of the growth of Tencent games to be slightly higher than the GDP growth. After all, it is difficult for an addictive product to be weaker than the GDP growth rate for a long time, which is determined by the characteristics of demand. Of course, there are still many indicators for specific estimates, such as demographic structure, ARPU, market share, etc. Interested golfers can climb it by themselves.
For the so-called youth protection policy, I personally think that it is not enough to have a long-term impact on the demand for games, because real life is not perfect, the structure of the human pyramid will not change, people need to find a way to release pressure, and games just satisfy this demand. At present, the channels for contacting games are much higher than those in the 1980s. TVs, various game consoles, computers, mobile phones, VR helmets, etc. And the playability is also much more. In this kind of play environment, you say that gamers will have a generational generation. I don’t believe it. At most, it only reduces the number of ordinary matching users. Think of the one-hour traffic peak on the weekend and you will know the addiction. Strong demand for sex.
Well, I have talked a lot today, the purpose is not to recommend stocks, I just want to discuss with you my shallow understanding of the game, and hope to get corrections from golfers! $Tencent Holdings(00700)$
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