$Yinhua Tianji-Quietly Ying(TIA05031)$ $Yinhua Tianji-Niannianhong(TIAA041001)$
This is our 1010th weekly strategy report.
Looking back on the past week, there are still huge differences in market views, and our view is still very firm, that is, it is still a good time for medium and long-term investment layout, and the opportunities may far outweigh the risks.
Before resuming the market, let us first express our attitude. Standing at the moment, we think that the most important thing is probably the position, and the position is the most important thing at this moment.
The strategy review for this week is as follows:
1. The words of the market are the most important
Of course, what we think is not important, what matters is what the market thinks.
Last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index finally closed up 1.66%, and the ChiNext Index closed up 1.41% (Wind, 2023.1.15). In the case of relatively sluggish trading volume and the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, the market trend showed A certain degree of aggression.
From the perspective of technical graphics, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index have stood above the 30-week line for the second consecutive week, and the ChiNext Index has also stood above the 30-week line. This is an important signal. (Wind, 2023.01.13)
In addition to technical graphics, people have gradually come out of the impact of the epidemic;
There are also measures to support the development of the platform economy and guide the real estate market back to normal, which have also been intensively introduced recently.
In general, if we listen carefully to the voice of the market, we should be able to have a basic perception, that is, the market is getting stronger, and the words of the market are the most important.
2. The cycle rule is the most important
From the perspective of investment, the law of the cycle is reflected in two aspects. One is the cycle of the market itself.
The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has been adjusted for nearly 2 years since it touched 5930.91 on February 18, 2021, and ended at 4074.38 after the market closed on January 13, 2023. Periodic reversal (Wind, 2023.01.13).
Historically, the CSI 300 has not closed down for three consecutive years, and the CSI 300 has fallen for two consecutive years in 2021 and 2022 (the CSI 300 (000300.SH) range rose and fell Ratio: -5.20% Wind, 2021.01.04-2021.12.31;
Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (000300.SH) interval rise and fall: -21.63%, Wind, 2022.01.04-2022.12.30);
As of January 13, the CSI 300TTM was valued at 11.87 times, which is 28.59% of the historical percentile. (Wind, 2005.04.08-2023.01.13. The historical performance of the index does not predict future returns.)
Another aspect is the basic law of social and economic development, which helps us discover great investment opportunities.
Judging from the history of major capital markets such as the United States, Japan, and Europe, as well as the history of our Chinese A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, in a relatively long period of time, the performance of consumption and medical care is very prominent, which is why we are investing. The configuration in , gives a valuable reference, what needs to be solved here is the timing of intervention and the timing of proper exit.
If we study it more carefully, we can also find that in addition to consumption and medical care, every era will have major breakthroughs in the field of science and technology, which will become the main line of investment in that era. You can recall the steel in the 1960s and 1970s. Automobiles in the 1980s and 1990s, the Internet around 2000, and now, China’s breakthroughs in chip semiconductors, new energy, and military industries seem to meet the needs of the times.
There is another type of situation that we should also pay attention to, that is, leading enterprises in the entire national economy, including industry leaders in finance, consumption, medical care, technology, etc., can often win for a long time.
These ideas are fully reflected in the strategies of our Yinhua Tianji-Quiet Yingying and Yinhua Tianji-Niannianhong fund investment and advisory portfolios.
3. The most important thing right now
At present, the entire market is very controversial about the future trend. Many people are still entangled in the short-term ups and downs and cannot extricate themselves from the short-term perspective. Bottom area layout opportunities.
For the moment, the most important thing may be the position. If you can’t have enough positions, you may miss the following market.
Since the beginning of this year, the CSI 300 has closed up 5.24% (Wind, 2023.01.03-2023.01.13). Many investors lament that they cannot outperform the index, which is a relatively normal phenomenon in the early stage of the market;
When the market comes out of the bottom area and starts to strengthen amid divergences, there will be an index breakthrough process in the early stage. After the market breaks through, it will be the operating range where a hundred flowers bloom, excellent segmented sectors and company performance.
Why is the current position the most important?
Some deduction can also be done from the perspective of probability and space.
We still take the CSI 300 as an example. As of January 13, the TTM valuation of the CSI 300 was 11.87 times, which is 28.59% of the historical percentile.
Without considering the performance growth of listed companies in 2022 and 2023, from a common sense point of view, the CSI 300 is about 28.59% away from the bottom of history (Wind, 2005.04.08-2023.01.13. The historical performance of the index does not indicate future earnings).
So do you think that the performance of listed companies will not continue to grow in 2023?
As mentioned earlier, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has fallen for two consecutive years, and there has never been a three-year consecutive decline in history. Combined with the current valuation and point, combined with the market environment in 2023 to fight for the economy, is it right? Should it be more optimistic? (Wind, 2023.01.13)
4. Recent investment strategies
We re-examined our main strategy, which should be said to be more in line with the current market situation.
In terms of positions, whether it is Yinhua Tianji-Quietly Ying and Yinhua Tianji-Niannianhong, the positions of the equity part have practiced our judgment on the current market.
In terms of guidance and communication, my family insists on investing in Yinhua Tianji-Quiet Yingying and Yinhua Tianji-Niannianhong every Monday. In terms of attitude and communication, I have practiced my family’s heavy-duty research and judgment.
In terms of the direction of investment, the Hong Kong stock market we deployed performed relatively well, and the performance of medicine, consumption, and broad-based investment also met expectations.
However, the science and technology innovation board and the direction of military industry in the layout are not so prominent for the time being.
After reviewing and thinking over the weekend, we still have some thoughts on the current investment strategy. Looking back, we can still have better allocation and operation. It cannot be said that we have done the best, and we need to work harder in the future.
But in the short term, around the Spring Festival, we do not expect to make major adjustments to the strategy.
In addition, I would like to remind everyone that we should not only see the opportunities but not the risks.
No matter how optimistic we are about the current market, we cannot destroy one principle, that is, investing with spare money. We must be clear that as ordinary investors, giving up the fantasy of “getting rich quickly”, lowering expectations, and insisting on managing money with spare money is the correct investment philosophy.
5. Reflection of the Value of Investment Advisory
Many people have not really realized the value of buy-side investment advice, and have not yet realized the value of fund investment advice. They still fall into some difficulties like buying individual stocks and single funds. We can understand this, after all, fund investment advice is also A new type of business that combines investment and services, there are still many things that need time to verify, but from our understanding, these few things will be what we are doing Yinhua Tianji-Quiet Yingying and Yinhua Tianji -The embodiment of value in the process of annual red:
1. With a deeper understanding and knowledge of the market, with teamwork, you can better make reasonable and scientific judgments on investment direction, strategy, risk control, etc. For example, our understanding, judgment and adherence to the investment value of Hong Kong stocks may also be realized in the future.
2. In the cyclical fluctuations of the market, guide investors to avoid risks in high-level areas and grasp investment opportunities in bottom areas. In the past year, we issued a reminder on July 4, 2022 “Suspension of fixed investment does not mean bearishness” In order to avoid short-term risks, the Shanghai Composite Index reached the highest point of 3424.84 in the second half of the next day (Wind, 2022.07.05).
Then, on August 29, after the rapid adjustment of the market, we also pointed out the investment opportunities in the bottom area, and between September and November, we launched my family’s regular investment doubling plan, that is, the fixed investment amount doubled every Monday.
Another example is now, we have repeatedly told everyone to cherish and seize the current investment opportunities. I wonder if everyone will listen to it?
3. Timely and effective full communication.
Through our articles and video “Fund Review” every trading day, weekly, monthly, quarterly, semi-annual and annual strategy reports, and through our daily communication and exchanges, we can timely share our strategies and ideas I want to inform investors that efficient and candid communication will also help investors maintain a peaceful and stable mentality.
These are very meaningful for improving the profit area of investors and improving the experience of investors. After a period of time, when the data can be made public, some verification should be obtained.
Of course, with the advancement of the investment advisory business in the future,
We also hope that we can resume the launch of the strategy of weekly scheduled votes and departures in different directions as soon as possible.
Realize the function of automatic follow-up,
As well as more in-depth and customized needs in the future,
The most urgent thing to promote at the moment is to launch the strategy of weekly scheduled investment and departure in different directions to realize automatic follow-up. These two pain points will improve investors’ follow-up investment experience and convenience.
This week, the weekly strategy has been reported and communicated with everyone. The core points:
1. The most important thing in the current market is the position.
2. The short-term performance of the market exceeded expectations, and the medium- and long-term trend is relatively clear.
3. The strategies of Yinhua Tianji-Quietly Ying and Yinhua Tianji-Niannianhong are still in line with the current market, and there will be no adjustments in direction in the short term.
4. Slowly discover the value of investment advisors.
I am silent, insisting on researching and analyzing funds every day,
An investment observation and reflection every trading day,
A “Fund Review” video every trading day,
A weekly strategy report is released every Sunday,
Maintain efficient communication and communication at any time, a fund investor who insists on improving research capabilities.
If you think the content is valuable, if you feel that Quiet Ying and Niannianhong Fund Investment Advisory Portfolio are trustworthy, and if you think the communication with consultants is very important, please like, leave a comment, and forward it. thanks.
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Reminder: This article does not constitute investment advice, the market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious.
Managed fund investment advisory services are provided by Yinhua Fund Management Co., Ltd. Regular fixed investment is a simple and easy investment method to guide investors to make long-term investment and average investment cost. However, regular fixed-amount investment cannot avoid the inherent risks of fund investment, nor can it guarantee investors’ income, nor is it an equivalent financial management method to replace savings. The investment advisory portfolio recommendations may include fund products managed by Yinhua Fund and fund products managed by other fund managers. Before using the fund portfolio service, investors are requested to carefully read the relevant agreements, business rules and strategy instructions, fully understand the details of the portfolio and the fund allocation of the portfolio, and confirm that the portfolio is in line with their own risk tolerance, investment period and investment goals. Investors should follow the principle of “buyer is responsible” when investing in fund investment advisory portfolio strategies. On the basis of a comprehensive understanding of the risk-return characteristics, operating characteristics and appropriate matching opinions of fund investment advisory portfolio strategies, investors should choose appropriate fund investment advisors based on their own conditions. Combination strategies, cautiously make investment decisions, and independently bear investment risks. Yinhua Fund does not guarantee a certain profit and minimum return of the fund’s investment portfolio strategy, nor does it make a commitment to guarantee capital. The risk characteristics of fund portfolio strategies are different from those of individual fund products. The past performance of investment advisory services does not indicate its future performance, and the income created for other investors does not constitute a guarantee of performance. The fund investment consulting business is still in the pilot stage, and there is a risk that fund investment consulting institutions will not be able to continue to provide services due to the cancellation of the pilot qualification. Funds are risky, and investment needs to be cautious. #Fund Creator Incentive#
@大徐子@李海斌感感数据数据@基金复基金@Ricky @ izhifu @库牛MR. He Yin
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