Original link: https://www.latepost.com/news/dj_detail?id=1416
“New Ten Articles” Released, Efforts to Return to Normality Begin
Similar to previous market expectations, the joint prevention and control mechanism released the “New Ten Rules” on December 7 to further optimize epidemic prevention and control measures.
On the basis of the previous “Twenty Articles” , continue to narrow the scope of high-risk areas, allow asymptomatic or mildly infected persons to be isolated at home if they meet the conditions, cancel the landing inspection, and do not check the health code. A more “heavy” wording was used to strengthen the vaccination rate of the elderly-“mobilize the whole society to participate in the mobilization of the elderly to vaccinate”.
The following is a comparison of measures taken by Wan Lian Cai on some specific topics in the “two editions” of the notice. The complete “New Ten Articles” can be viewed here.
After the release of the new notice, many local and industry authorities have followed up and adjusted the epidemic prevention and control policies:
- At least Sanya Phoenix and Guangzhou Baiyun Airport will no longer check negative nucleic acid certificates and health codes for inbound and outbound passengers;
- The China Railway Corporation announced that from now on, the 48-hour nucleic acid certificate and health code inspection will be stopped when buying tickets, taking trains, and entering and exiting stations; the adjustment time of various prevention and control measures for entering Beijing will be notified separately;
- The Beijing Municipal Government is scheduled to hold a press conference on epidemic prevention and control work at 8 pm on the 7th, proposing to “adhere to the ninth edition of the prevention and control plan, implement twenty optimization measures, and implement the new ten further optimization measures.” Continue to provide free nucleic acid testing services for the public; no longer check nucleic acid and health codes for people entering and returning to Beijing, and cancel landing inspections and “three-day inspections”.
- Note: One of the authors of this article lives in Shanghai, with a green code, 48-hour nucleic acid negative, non-close contact, no infection, and no high-risk community in the street. Being “popped up (3)” by Beijing Healthbao, the purchase of a ticket to Beijing at 12306 was rejected (as of 17:30 pm on the 7th);
- Chongqing requested that current prevention and control measures inconsistent with the “New Ten Measures” be no longer implemented;
- Guangzhou has allowed home isolation for close contacts, asymptomatic infections and mild cases who are eligible for home isolation;
- From the 8th, Shanghai will cancel the landing inspection and the “three-day three-inspection” and allow infected persons to be isolated at home; close contacts who are under centralized isolation can return to their place of residence in a “point-to-point” closed-loop if they meet the conditions for home isolation;
Feng Zijian, a member of the expert group of the National Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism for New Coronary Virus Pneumonia, said in a speech at Tsinghua University on December 6, “According to mathematical models, when the first wave of large-scale shocks reaches its peak, the infection rate among our population may reach 100%. About 60%, and then it will gradually fall back to a plateau, and eventually we may experience 80%-90% of people will experience infection.”
Social platforms not only have expectations for the recovery of social vitality after the epidemic is released, but also worry about large-scale infections. Two different sentiments were “quantified” in the data published by different platforms.
For example, the popularity of air tickets, train tickets, etc. on the Meituan platform has nearly tripled month-on-month, and accommodation booking orders during the New Year’s Day have increased by 606% month-on-week. According to the data provided by Feichangzhun, after the release of the “New Ten Articles”, the search volume of domestic air tickets increased by 350%, and the departure cities with the fastest growth were Urumqi, Shanghai, Harbin, Chengdu, and Hangzhou.
At the same time, the purchases of cold and antipyretic medicines from online pharmacies and local life service platforms have increased significantly, and most antigen reagents sold in quantities of 100 or more are out of stock. According to data from Baidu Health, in the week from November 28, the antipyretic and analgesic ibuprofen increased by 483%.
There are already 8 billion people on the earth, but the world has not become more united because of the epidemic. The current macroeconomic situation is not necessarily better than last October or early this year. The impact of global inflation continues, geo-political conflicts have improved in some places, and worsened in others. Blockages in production and transportation have appeared from time to time. Some important entrepreneurs in the world’s two largest economies are thinking about how to develop “safely” .
Previously, “Wandian Finance” reviewed that it took at least eight months for Wuhan’s consumption to get out of the impact of the 2020 epidemic. Enterprises need time to rebuild their expectations, and people also need to calculate whether to consume or save money based on industry expectations and income expectations—this will in turn affect corporate decision-making—that is, the transmission path of “employment→income→expenditure” . In short, the process of repairing the economy is like the process of preparing an airplane for taxiing after taking off, and it cannot be done overnight.
The macro research team of China Merchants Securities has released a series of research reports, reviewing the peak and valley of infection after the “opening up” of different regions and the impact of the epidemic process on production and consumption, which can be used as a reference:
China Hong Kong
- 2022/4 Gradually relax the epidemic control measures; from May 1st, non-Hong Kong residents are allowed to enter Hong Kong from overseas; from September 26th, people entering from overseas and Taiwan through the airport will no longer be quarantined;
- After the epidemic cooled down in April this year, there has been no significant rebound in official statistics so far. This may be related to the lack of mandatory nucleic acid testing;
- The unemployment rate began to decline in May and was at 3.9% at the end of September. The level before the epidemic was about 3%;
- The labor force at the end of October was 3.796 million, nearly 200,000 less than the same period in 2019;
- Consumption briefly rebounded in April when the epidemic prevention was greatly relaxed. From May to September, year-on-year growth and decline were mixed. In October, it increased by 3.93% year-on-year, which was 6.26% more than the same period in 2019;
Japan
- In 2022/3, domestic epidemic prevention will be lifted, and entry control will be relaxed in stages; in 2022/9, restrictions on the origin of entry will be lifted;
- 2022/7-8 The diagnosis rebounded, with a single-day increase of more than 100,000 (July) and 260,000 (August); during the period, the prime minister was diagnosed;
- The 2022/9 unemployment rate (2.6%, in September) has basically returned to pre-epidemic (2.4%, the same period in 2019); the labor force participation rate rose to 63%, surpassing the 62.5% in the same period in 2019;
- The industrial production index and capacity utilization index have not recovered to the pre-epidemic level, but they are very close. The September data is 2-3 percentage points lower than the same period in 2019;
- Consumer confidence has not recovered, 30.8 in October, the highest was 39.2 in November last year;
South Korea
- In 2022/3, the full vaccination will not be quarantined when entering the country. In April, the level of new crown infectious diseases will be lowered to B (the highest level).
- 2022/3-4 single-day diagnosis of new highs, rebound in August-September;
- Unemployment fell significantly with easing. 2.8% in October and 3.6% in the same period in 2019;
- The industrial production index is higher than before the epidemic and has recently declined;
- Poor consumption and slow tourism recovery. South Korea’s consumer confidence index continued to decline from April to July (20 percentage points behind the normal period);
Singapore
- In 2022/3, there will be no quarantine for entry for full vaccination, and almost all domestic epidemic prevention restrictions will be canceled in April; no quarantine will be required for entry without vaccination from August 29;
- 2022/6-7 The diagnosis rebounded, and the XBB mutant strain rebounded again in October;
- Employment is good and the unemployment rate is lower than in 2019. The job vacancy rate in the second quarter of 2022 was 5.6%, and 2.1% in the first quarter of 2020; the unemployment rate in 2022/8 reached a historical low of 1.9%, and rose slightly to 2.0% in September, still lower than the same period in 2019;
- Production resumed rapidly with the relaxation of epidemic control. The industrial production index in October was 123.69, compared with 99.17 in the same period in 2019.
- The rebound in consumption is also obvious. The retail sales index (current price) rebounded in March this year, the catering service index (current price) rebounded in May, and the sales index in September was higher than the same period in 2019;
- The number of inbound tourists has soared. In September, the number of Singapore airline passengers was 1.6715 million, an increase of 324.88% compared with March;
Vietnam
- 2021/10 decided to coexist, 2022/3 reopened the border to international tourists, and 2022/5 entry into Vietnam no longer requires new crown nucleic acid testing;
- In 2022/3 and 2022/8, the number of confirmed diagnoses rebounded, peaking at 250,000+ in a single day, and the mortality rate decreased with low volatility;
- A shrinking workforce and higher unemployment in 2021;
- The overall industrial production index fluctuated too much, and mining, power generation, and manufacturing production continued to recover after the epidemic eased;
- 21/10 Vietnam’s retail sales increased by 23.4% month-on-month, with a V-shaped rebound in consumption; the retail sales of the service industry, commerce, and hotel and catering industries all rebounded significantly after the relaxation of epidemic prevention, and the service industry was better than before the epidemic; as of October this year, Vietnam’s service industry , commerce, hotels and catering, and tourism increased by 72.42%, 6.20%, 3.71%, and -1.91% respectively;
- The recovery of inbound tourists was weak, with only 30% of the same period in 2019 in October. (Gong Fangyi)
Apple builds a car, back to “reality”
Apple and its original dream of building a car are drifting away.
The latest development is that Apple’s first car has abandoned the L5 fully automatic driving route. The hardware that traditional cars such as the steering wheel, brakes, and accelerator pedals will retain. year.
Kevin Linch, who is also in charge of the project, mentioned two goals, one is to retain the team, and the other is to launch it to the market as soon as possible. This is obviously far from people’s expectations for Apple’s disruption of the car industry at the beginning.
In the eight years that Apple has been thinking about building a car, the direction has been swaying and overthrowing, and the project leader has changed one crop after another.
In 2014, a car-making project called “Project Titan” was born within Apple. The first person in charge, Steve Zadesky, set the goal of developing a However, other executives, represented by chief designer Jonathan Ive (Jonathan Ive), insisted that if Apple wants to build a car, it must have no steering wheel.
In 2016, Zadesky left, and Apple’s veteran executive Bob Mansfield (Bob Mansfield) came back to take over, and Apple’s focus on making cars also changed from hard to soft. Bob believes that we should focus on developing autonomous driving and ecosystems, rather than building our own cars.
In 2018, Doug Field, who once led the mass production of Model 3, took over the car-building project and re-emphasized the need to build a complete car.
In September 2021, Field left Apple and jumped to Ford. Lynch, the former head of Apple Watch, was ordered to continue to develop fully autonomous vehicles, but important executives from the automotive team continued to lose.
In March of this year, Tianfeng Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo even revealed that almost all Apple’s car-making project teams have been disbanded. If they want to deliver in 2025, they must regroup within a few months…
In addition to frequent strategic changes and endless internal friction, Apple has also been unable to find a partner who can help. It is difficult for traditional automakers to accept that Apple will control the design and production data of cars and turn themselves into foundries.
Now that Apple has made good progress in the automotive field, there is only the in-vehicle intelligent system CarPlay. This in-vehicle version of iOS has cooperated with more than 700 models of 70 car companies around the world, which is much higher than the official Android and similar products of other Internet companies. . (Qiu Hao)
“Prominently do a good job in stabilizing growth, employment, and prices”
According to Xinhua News Agency, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on December 6 to analyze and study the economic work in 2023. Compared with the analysis and study of the economic situation and economic work by the Political Bureau on July 28, there are some changes in formulation.
Evaluate the situation at home and abroad
- 2022.12 : Facing the turbulent international environment and the arduous task of domestic reform, development and stability;
- 2022.07: Facing the complex and severe international environment and the arduous task of domestic reform, development and stability;
Coordinating epidemic prevention and control with economic development
- 2022.12: Adhere to the general tone of the work of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, focus on promoting high-quality development, and better coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development; implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand at the same time Deepen the organic combination of supply-side structural reforms, and focus on stabilizing growth, employment, and prices;
- 2022.07: Adhere to the general tone of the work of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, focus on promoting high-quality development, and fully implement the requirements of preventing the epidemic, stabilizing the economy, and ensuring safe development … It is necessary to efficiently coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development. Regarding the relationship between epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, we must look at it comprehensively, systematically, and in the long run, and especially look at it politically and settle political accounts. We must adhere to the supremacy of the people and the supremacy of life, adhere to external defense imports, internal defense rebounds, and dynamic clearing. When an epidemic occurs, we must immediately strictly prevent and control it.
Requirements for “safety”
- 2022.12: …to better coordinate development and security, comprehensively deepen reform and opening up, and vigorously boost market confidence; effectively prevent and resolve major risks, promote overall economic improvement, and achieve effective improvement in quality and reasonable growth in quantity; effectively prevent and resolve major risks Economic and financial risks, keep the bottom line of no systemic risks; industrial policy should be developed and safe at the same time; the party’s overall leadership over economic work should be strengthened; pay close attention to safety in production and disaster prevention and mitigation work, and maintain social harmony and stability;
- 2022.07: …Consolidate the positive trend of economic recovery , focus on stabilizing employment and prices, keep the economy operating within a reasonable range, and strive to achieve the best results; we must guard the bottom line of safety in all aspects; we must strengthen food security; we must coordinate development and security, and persist in The overall national security concept, earnestly shoulder the political responsibility of preventing and defusing risks, firmly establish the bottom line thinking, and improve the ability to foresee, respond to, and deal with major risks;
Monetary and Fiscal Policy
- 2022.12: Continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and strengthen the coordination and cooperation of various policies; a proactive fiscal policy must be strengthened to improve efficiency, and a prudent monetary policy must be precise and powerful;
- 2022.07: Fiscal and monetary policies must effectively make up for insufficient social demand. Make good use of local government special bond funds, and support local governments to make good use of the special debt limit. Monetary policy should maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, increase credit support for enterprises, and make good use of new credit from policy banks and investment funds for infrastructure construction;
Real Estate and Platform Economy
- 2022.12: None;
- 2022.07: To stabilize the real estate market, adhere to the positioning that houses are for living in, not for speculation, make full use of the policy toolbox according to the city’s policies, support rigid and improved housing demand, compact local government responsibilities, and guarantee the delivery of buildings , Stable people’s livelihood; To promote the healthy and sustainable development of the platform economy, complete the special rectification of the platform economy, implement normalized supervision of the platform economy, and focus on launching a number of “green light” investment cases;
open to the outside world
- 2022.12: comprehensively deepen reform and opening up, and vigorously boost market confidence; promote high-level opening up to the outside world, and make greater efforts to attract and utilize foreign capital;
- 2022.07: We must use reform and opening up as the driving force for economic development; we must actively promote exports, expand imports, do a good job in the introduction of technology and foreign capital, and promote the high-quality development of the joint construction of the “Belt and Road”. (Gong Fangyi)
Silicon Valley layoffs, and the precarious life of workers on temporary work visas
Losing a job is hard for anyone, but it’s even harder for immigrants on H-1B visas.
There are nearly 600,000 H-1B visa holders in the US, mostly from India and China. Most of them are concentrated in Silicon Valley, and most of them are technology companies such as Meta, Google, and Microsoft.
When the technology industry began mass layoffs, their lives were greatly impacted. According to the monitoring data of the website Layoffs.fyi, nearly 150,000 people have been laid off in the US technology industry this year, of which about 10% to 30% hold such visas.
The H-1B visa is a temporary work visa applied for by an employer for three years, renewable once. Employees must have at least a bachelor’s degree in a related field. The annual limit is 85,000, which are generated by lottery in March each year. There are 483,000 applications for 2022, with a winning rate of 26%.
- Employers typically pay about $2,000 per application, including application fees, education and training fees, and fraud prevention and detection fees. Expedited processing is an additional $2,500.
This visa tightly binds the employee’s stay in the United States with the employer. If you are laid off, you need to find a similar new job within 60 days, and require the new employer to sponsor a transfer visa, otherwise you must leave the United States (or change to another type of visa to buy time).
The 60-day period is really short. The H-1B visa requires the holder to have a job that matches his qualifications and educational background, which means that he cannot go to Starbucks or Wal-Mart to find a job to buy time. At present, technology companies are laying off employees or freezing recruitment, and it is approaching the end of the year and holidays, making it even more difficult to find a job. In addition, even if a new job is found, H-1B visa transfer still requires many procedures and time.
Some had to compromise in order to find a job as quickly as possible. For example, choose a job that you are not interested in at all, move to a strange city and start over. For H-1B holders who are applying for a green card, unemployment may also affect their chances of obtaining a green card. (intern Zeng Xing)
OTHER NEWS
Antigen reagents on the drug buying platform were snapped up.
With the relaxation of nucleic acid inspection requirements in many places across the country, the demand for residents to prepare their own antigens has surged. According to data from JD Health, the turnover of antigen detection kits on the platform increased by 344% month-on-month last week. Lianhua Qingwen and ibuprofen were also snapped up. In different pharmacies on the same drug buying platform, the price difference of Lianhua Qingwen was more than 4 times; drugs such as ibuprofen were sold out in many pharmacies.
Shanghai Disneyland will resume full operations on December 8.
According to Shanghai Disney Resort, the park will fully resume operations from the 8th. The operating hours on the 8th are 08:30-20:00. The official app of Shanghai Disney Resort reminds you to scan the green code to enter the park. To enter the restaurant, you need to hold a negative nucleic acid certificate within 48 hours (note: this is still required as of 17:30 on the 7th).
Ma Yun stepped down as the chairman of the Zhejiang Chamber of Commerce.
The source of the news is the official Weibo of Zheshang Magazine. On October 24, 2015, Ma Yun was elected as the chairman of the first council of Zhejiang Chamber of Commerce. He was succeeded by Nan Cunhui, who was born in Yueqing, Wenzhou, and is currently the chairman of Chint Group Co., Ltd.
iPhone component suppliers expect weak demand.
Murata Manufacturing Co., one of the main iPhone component suppliers, expects Apple to further cut iPhone 14 production in the coming months due to weak demand. According to “Wan Lian Finance”, starting from December 1, the daily sales of the domestic iPhone 13 once again surpassed that of the iPhone 14.
From January to November, China’s chip imports fell by 14.4%.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s chip imports in the first 11 months of this year decreased by 14.4% year-on-year to 498.5 billion. The import volume in November decreased by about 25.2% year-on-year. Cumulative imports fell slightly (-1.8%), but fell sharply by 27.5% in the month. This may be related to the manufacturer’s advance stocking.
Li Yinan’s car building was blocked, and Ziyoujia’s first new energy car could not be delivered.
On December 7, Ziyoujia Automobile, a new car maker, said that its first car was encountering delivery problems. Although the first new energy vehicle NV came out in October, it has received support from 24,000 interested users. However, due to the company’s own reasons, NV will not be able to deliver in the short term. Ziyoujia promises to give a full refund within 48 hours, prepare an NV car model for the owner, and compensate 200 yuan Starbucks consumer card.
Operating costs were halved, and Shuidi turned a year-on-year profit in the third quarter.
In the third quarter, Waterdrop’s revenue was 772 million yuan, an increase of 10% from the previous quarter. The operating cost was halved to 640 million yuan year-on-year, and Waterdrop turned around as a result, with a net profit of 170 million yuan. Since April this year, Shuidichou began to charge 3% of the fundraising as a service fee. In the third quarter, the service fee income was 59 million yuan, accounting for 7.6% of the total revenue.
Airbus lowered its annual delivery target for the second time this year.
Affected by shortages of parts and labor, Airbus announced that it would abandon its goal of delivering 700 aircraft for the whole year, but said that deliveries would not be significantly reduced. As of the end of November, Airbus had delivered 565 planes this year.
IATA expects global airlines to return to profitability next year.
On December 6, the International Air Transport Association released its economic outlook and industry status. It is expected that global airlines will achieve revenue of US$779 billion and net profit of US$4.7 billion next year, which is expected to be profitable for the first time since 2019. In terms of regions, North America is the only region to return to profitability this year, and Europe and the Middle East are expected to be profitable next year, while Latin America, Africa and Asia Pacific will continue to be in the red.
Microsoft plans to develop a “super app” similar to WeChat.
According to media reports, Microsoft is considering developing a super app that includes services such as shopping, instant messaging, news and web search. People familiar with the matter said the inspiration came from WeChat. Musk also said before that he wanted to make Twitter like WeChat.
Crypto hardware wallet maker Ledger has launched a new hardware wallet.
Ledger has launched a new hardware wallet, Ledger Stax, equipped with an electronic ink screen display. Users can view and manage encrypted assets and NFT to avoid the risk of assets being stolen by hackers. This product was designed by former Apple chief designer and “father of the iPod” Tony Fadell, and manufactured by Foxconn. It’s scheduled to go on sale next March, retails for $279, and is currently accepting pre-orders.
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