Two new product launches were held before the festival, one was the VR headset PICO 4, and the other was the humanoid robot “Optimus Prime”.
Rich dad believes that the former product is slightly below market expectations, and the latter product exceeds expectations.
In particular, the mass production time of “Optimus Prime” and the use of parts and components have exceeded expectations. Rich dad will introduce it in detail in the next article. I think this is a big track that cannot be missed, and domestic manufacturers have certain advantages, which may be After photovoltaics and new energy vehicles, it is one of the few industries that can compete on the world stage.
Today, let’s share some information about rich dad’s research on the VR industry chain during the National Day.
1. In the case of pico 4 products.
After the pico 4 was released, it was quickly disassembled and disassembled.
According to the calculation of Weishen XR dismantling, due to the high price of pancake modules, Goertek is responsible for doubling the total value of some parts compared to PICO NEO 3. Revenue is about 530 yuan ($76), including OEM/ODM ($20), optical modules ($44), acoustic modules ($6), and components such as linear motors ($6).
In the future, Goertek will be responsible for more and more value of VR headsets, and more and more components. According to the Goertek exchange meeting, as long as the components used in VR are in the layout, including optical and non-optical parts, the upstream components are more and more, the technical barriers are getting bigger and bigger, and the investment is also going upstream. Section layout.
According to the business of PICO 4, the future market space of the track where Goertek shares is located is 10% for optical modules, 5% for ODM and other components, and 30 times the PE valuation. The following 4 development paths can support the market value as follows:
The first one: for the standard game console, then the annual shipment will be capped at about 50 million units. Then the revenue of the VR headset can support the market value of GoerTek’s shares of about 63 billion.
The second type: For electronic wearables such as smart watches, the current annual shipment is 130 million units, so the VR headset can support a market value of 160 billion. At the same time, the shipments of watches are still growing rapidly and have not yet peaked, and the market space is still open. to be observed.
The third type: benchmarking mobile phones, the current annual shipment is 1.3 billion units, then the VR headset can support a market value of 1.6 trillion.
The fourth type: In the early stage, game consoles opened the market, and in the later stage, they grew into computing terminals positioned like mobile phones, supporting a market value of 60 billion to 1.6 trillion.
Rich dad believes that the fourth probability is higher and more in line with the actual development law.
At present, Goertek is not attractive enough. One of the main reasons is that the gross profit margin and net profit margin are too low, which reduces the overall market space.
The net interest rate of 5% and 10% is almost hard-earned money.
If the net interest rate increases with the increase in VR production and the price reduction of bulk commodities, or if the liquidity preference increases and the valuation level increases, the market space will be further opened.
2. In addition, add the view of a mechanical zoom display module faucet that we tracked before
The company is worth $70 in PICO 4.
The mechanical zoom display is mainly used to solve the VR vertigo problem.
The principle is to cooperate with eye tracking to capture the user’s eye movement trajectory, accurately calculate that the user’s eyes stay on the screen area of the device, and move the lens position through the motor + gear to achieve the purpose of clear imaging.
Due to the mature technology and low cost, it is likely to become the standard for future VR headsets. This technology will be used in PICO in December and Apple’s MR equipment in early 2023. Apple uses 2 sets, PICO 4 is 1 set.
Although the technology is relatively mature, it seems that the technical barriers are not low.
The precision of this gear is the core. According to the research of a gold company, the gear technology can achieve a diameter of less than 5 mm. There is only one German company in the world and the one we track.
According to the above several paths, the net interest rate is 10%, and the PE is 30 times, which supports the market value of 10.5 billion, 27 billion and 270 billion respectively.
At present, the company’s market value is less than 9 billion, and small companies are relatively flexible.
The main risk point is whether the technical moat is really so high, and whether there will be many new entrants to “grab food”.
And the short-term increase is relatively large, there may be adjustment pressure.
3. Domestic VR Ecosystem
During the National Day, many VR players’ PICO 4s have been tested after they arrive, and it is generally reflected that there is still a lot of room for improvement.
The hardware level is not a big problem. Now the main contradiction is that I have bought a VR headset and do not know what it can do. The content is not rich enough, the software optimization is not good enough, the game experience is not smooth enough, and it is not even comparable to an overseas product 2 years ago.
At this point, it can be seen that the real core competitiveness of VR headsets is not hardware devices, but algorithms and content ecology.
The former needs to rely on strong research and development, while the latter requires huge capital promotion.
The speed of capital promotion can further accelerate research and development.
PICO has not improved enough this year. The fundamental reason is that the number of domestic VR users has not yet reached the “singularity”, the quantitative change has not yet reached the qualitative change, and the VR ecosystem lacks the flywheel effect.
As long as the user “singularity” does not arrive, it is difficult to arouse the VR innovation impulse of the whole society, the revenue growth rate of PICO is not fast enough, and the R&D funds will slow down.
It can be seen that the construction barriers of the VR ecological chain are extremely high, far from being as easy as our investors imagined.
The “singularity” that META reached 10 million sales cost about 10 billion US dollars.
Byte and PICO have also invested a lot of money in domestic promotion subsidies, about several billion a year. Even the byte-supported PICO is very difficult to promote, not to mention other small manufacturers.
However, once the ecological chain is formed, it can quickly form a monopoly platform. Similar to the apple store, the platform with the most users will attract the most creators to issue.
Rich dad believes that the domestic VR ecological development path is still different from META. The “singularity” may not need to reach 10 million, but it is estimated that 5 million can be detonated.
The “singularity” of META is driven by games, and the advantage of domestic VR may be the live broadcast platform.
Compared with games, the threshold for live broadcast is much lower. A talent live broadcast only needs to purchase (about 30,000) or rent a VR camera in the early stage to start a business, and a daily audience of more than 1,000 people can achieve a good income.
Therefore, as long as the daily activity of pico reaches a certain number, a large number of talent broadcasters will enter and quickly fill in the content.
$ Goertek (SZ002241)$ $Sanli Spectrum (SZ002876)$ $Luxshare Precision (SZ002475)$
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