In the 2022 semi-annual report, GCL disclosed for the first time some basic information about granular silicon, including data on production capacity, output, power consumption, steam consumption, and gross profit from sales.
First, the basic situation of granular silicon
1. Capacity and output
The production capacity of granular silicon will be 60,000 tons by June 30, 2022. It is located in Xuzhou and is divided into three projects, with production capacities of 10,000 tons, 20,000 tons and 30,000 tons respectively. The three projects will be put into production in February 2021, November 2021, and June 2022. Combined with the data from the semi-annual report, in the first half of 2022, the output of granular silicon was 11,216 tons. We can roughly conclude that the 20,000-ton project started to reach production in March, and the 30,000-ton project did not produce any output. According to this inference, the output of 10,000 tons of full production for 6 months and 20,000 tons of full production for 4 months is a total of 11,760 tons, which is roughly in line with the actual output.
2. Electricity and steam consumption
According to GCL’s semi-annual report, the power consumption of granular silicon is 14.8kWh/kg, and the steam consumption is 15.3kg/kg. The industry average data in 2021 is 63kWh/kg of electricity consumption and 18.4kg/kg of steam consumption. Granular silicon has great advantages in power consumption indicators.
3. Sale price
In the first half of 2022, GCL produced 11,216 tons of granular silicon and 28,866 tons of rod-shaped polysilicon, with a total production of 40,082 tons of polysilicon, and a total of 35,348 tons of polysilicon sold in the first half of the year. According to GCL’s semi-annual report data, the gross profit of rod silicon is 109.1 yuan/kg, and the unit gross profit of granular silicon is 154.7 yuan/kg. However, GCL did not disclose the price of rod-shaped silicon and granular silicon separately, nor did it disclose the sales volume of rod-shaped silicon and granular silicon separately, but gave an overall price of 194.7 yuan/kg in general, and the gross profit margin of granular silicon was higher than that of rod-shaped silicon 15 % or more. In this way, we cannot get the gross profit margin and selling price of granular silicon.
Although GCL did not give any information, Zhonghuan’s semi-annual report gave the operating data of Xinjiang GCL. We can use Xinjiang GCL’s data to speculate on the price and gross profit of granular silicon.
2. The price paradox of granular silicon
In the first half of 2022, Xinjiang GCL sold 32,318 tons of polysilicon, with a sales revenue of 6.649 billion yuan, and the average sales price of rod-shaped silicon was 205.7 yuan/kg. Based on this, we can conclude that the gross profit margin of rod-shaped silicon is 53.04%, the gross profit rate of granular silicon is more than 15% higher than that of rod-shaped silicon, and the gross profit rate of granular silicon is greater than 68.04%. Through the inversion of gross profit margin, the average price of granular silicon is greater than 226.17/kg.
The price paradox of granular silicon is that, according to the business data of GCL Xinjiang, we calculated that the average price of rod-shaped silicon is 205.7 yuan/kg, and the average price of granular silicon is greater than 226.17/kg; however, the comprehensive average price of silicon materials disclosed in GCL’s semi-annual report Only 194.7 yuan / kg. Regardless of the sales volume ratio of granular silicon and rod-shaped silicon, the comprehensive average price will not be lower than the average price of the two types of silicon materials, and the price paradox of granular silicon appears.
3. Explanation of the granular silicon paradox
There is only one reasonable explanation for the price paradox of granular silicon, that is, the sales price of rod-shaped silicon produced by Xuzhou base is lower than that of rod-shaped silicon produced by Xinjiang base, and it is lower than the comprehensive average selling price of 194.7 yuan/kg.
If the price of GCL rod-shaped silicon is lower than 194.7 yuan/kg, a new unreasonable phenomenon will appear.
It can be seen from the above table that the price of GCL’s silicon material is similar to that of Daquan. The price of GCL’s silicon material is from 2.84 yuan/kg lower than Daquan in 2019 to 4.28 yuan/kg higher than Daquan in 2021. In the first half of 2022, it was nearly 20 yuan lower than that of Daquan. If it is only explained from the change in the price comparison table, the price of granular silicon is lower than that of rod silicon, so the comprehensive unit price is lowered. But this contradicts the gross profit data disclosed by GCL, because from the gross profit data disclosed by GCL, the price of granular silicon is higher than that of rod silicon.
Can anyone give a more reasonable explanation?
$ GCL Technology (03800)$ $ Tongwei (SH600438)$ $ Daquan Energy (SH688303)$
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