The probability of lower LPR over 5 years has risen sharply

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The central bank lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 0.25 percentage points, which officially landed yesterday. Wang Qing, the chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, believes that after the implementation of this RRR cut, the probability of a reduction in LPR with a period of more than 5 years in December will increase significantly. Considering that the RRR cut has lowered the cost of funds for financial institutions, coupled with the new round of deposit rate cuts launched by commercial banks since September, even if the MLF interest rate remains stable in December, the cut of LPR with a maturity of more than 5 years is almost a foregone conclusion . After the RRR cuts in December 2021 and April 2022, both LPRs have implemented cuts in the context of MLF interest rates remaining stable. Before the end of the year, the one-year LPR is expected to remain stable. (Shanghai Stock Exchange)
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