#DanielBook 4th Anniversary# @雪ball asset management @雪ball private equity @danshu iron coupons
Snowball is a magical platform with hidden dragons and crouching tigers. No matter how changeable the market is, there will always be flowers and willows. No one is happy for a hundred days, and no flower is ever red. Characters will collapse, idols may collapse, and on the road of investment, stick to being yourself, and then you can survive the ups and downs of the market and time wash and have the last laugh.
The market is volatile, always putting a fund manager in the middle of being overvalued and undervalued. To be able to make money, investors themselves must have the vision and concentration of Bole. Fortunately, the abbot’s snowball platform allows us to more fully observe the words and deeds of fund managers. A car has a road, a horse has a road. Compared with the funds on the market that are in line with the mainstream aesthetics but have a slightly blurred appearance, these practical players who have grown up from private investment experts have no standardized packaging filters, and are distinctive and simple.
I started using Snowball in 2013. As an old golfer for many years, how many big Vs saw him rise from a high building and saw his building collapse. There are many Snowball Vs, and Dan Shu is one of them is quite low-key.
I read a post before and said, “Which big V do you want to marry your daughter to him? It is said that Dan Shu is a popular one, and some golfers said, “I have never seen him talk about other people, and who torn with him? , I never boast when the net worth is high, I always believe that character is the first.” The authenticity has not been verified, but it is enough to see the personality characteristics of Dan Shu, low-key and practical. Dan Shu became famous in Xueqiu. There are not many big Vs with Xueqiu’s “10-year confidant” label. It is not easy to successfully switch to professional investment, and it is not easy to achieve an annualized rate of more than 15%. What’s more, in this year’s market where the investment is losing money, Danshu can still make new highs, with an annual income of 18%+. It must not be luck behind this, but the persistence of mature strategies.
1. History of Danshu’s fame
Dan Shu is a big V who debuted very early on Snowball. As early as the personal investment stage, Dan Shu was praised by fans as a “travelling man” and “tourist from the future” for his investment views on Snowball and his dazzling stock portfolio performance.
His career transition on Snowball is very much a story. In 2018, Dan Shu began to try to switch to professional investment. It was September 2018, when the market was freezing, and if you could grit your teeth and spend 1 million to buy private equity, that was really a real fan of true love. Danshu’s initial fundraising achieved a good result of over 150 million, which is said to be the most dazzling achievement in the history of snowball incubation at that time.
However, the first two years seemed to have fallen into the curse of grass-roots transformation, and the performance was once sinking.
Due to the poor performance of Hong Kong stocks and low valuation factors that Danshu adheres to, 2019 is the first full year after the private placement, but it only slightly outperformed the market; Shenzhen 300 rose 29%, but Danshu iron coupons fell 12%. For a while, there is no sound.
The evaluation of an investment manager’s ability is often affected by various factors and needs to be seen through appearances. 100 yuan fell to the ground and was trampled by thousands of people, is it still 100 yuan? The price fluctuates up and down around the value, and the value remains the same, so why should you care about the price fluctuation?
Investing is like driving in the fog, only the driver can speed up when he sees the road clearly. From the perspective of the rear-view mirror, Dan wrote to the criticism and still insisted on his own style, which is why this year’s market where the old master was beaten to death still has a unique performance. With only one quarter left in 2022, Dan Shu’s 18% performance is enough to envy others on the rooftop where a lot of celebrity private equity firms can’t recover their losses.
Investment is like flowing water, there is no competition for the first, and the competition is endless.
Some people may criticize his performance in the first two years, but it is not necessary. The market is fickle, and no one can survive forever by chasing the market. Kant said that man legislates for nature, and investment does the same. There is a law behind the market that does not depend on human will. Only by establishing and adhering to your own system, you can understand and observe the market through your own specific market theory, price model and trading system. When the market changes, you cannot be led by the market. Walk with your nose. Of course, there are many subdivision issues behind this, whether the system is mature, how to evolve, how to do risk control (in the final analysis, survival is the last word), and so on. Dan Shu’s poor performance in the first two years actually shows that he insists on his own style, but it depends on whether you agree with this style.
2. Danshu’s investment system
Always stick some labels to make it easier to establish a personality. But language is a paradox. When you express it, it actually collapses.
If I have to use one core sentence to summarize the book of Dan, I think it is what he has repeatedly said “with the attitude of holding assets”, and then the ” constantly looking for low-valued and certain targets, mining Investment opportunities at the inflection point of the corporate cycle” . The attitude of holding assets is not a common expression and is easily overlooked, but this may be his most programmatic value. As he himself said, ” We have a heart of assets. This has been the case for the past four years. I hope that in the next 40 years, we can maintain a heart of assets. Embrace these enterprises with a heart of assets, and turn the complexity into Jane, find the target that suits you in the complex world, come and hold it .”
For specific stock selection, he emphasized the low valuation and certainty, especially the opportunity at the turning point of the cycle, which is a very test of stock selection ability. A concrete manifestation is that he will intervene in promising targets on the left side in advance, and when the institutions are in a group, he has already gone to look for other possibilities. For example, innovative drugs, public raising of hundreds of billions of funds to increase positions, have a great impact on the sector, and he will do the reverse dynamic balance. Dan Shu once mentioned how he uses research reports. He is not looking for proof of opinions from them, but more of a mentality of looking for poor expectations. From the perspectives of different securities companies, he finds the different points of institutions and finds market expectations. Poor.
Dan Book’s portfolio has a unique set of styles. “With the attitude of holding assets, constantly looking for low-valued and certain targets, and exploring investment opportunities at the inflection point of the company’s big cycle” , reflected in the style characteristics, it seems to be undervalued and contrarian investment (and “value”). is a broadly defined concept of value). But this is a reflection of the results, not the framework of his self-discipline. Danshu sees an asset not limited to value or growth. We cannot simply classify him as a value investment. Judging from the latest roadshow and his posts, Dan Shu himself also sees growth stocks, such as innovative drugs, and even some new energy targets for wind power and solar energy operators.
In terms of specific trading performance, it is left-hand trading, full positions are exchanged for shares, and moderate dispersion. He is not only looking at cheapness, he will be undervalued, and he will not sell if he is killed. It is easy to fall into the trap of undervaluation. He is a player who has both long-term stock picking and short-term trading ability, both offensive and defensive. The performance of the holding target has a combination of short-term, medium-term and long-term.
In general, the style of Danshu is relatively balanced. Looking back on 2019 and 2020, it is not that Dan Shu did not feel the change of style. The plan he adopted is about 20% of the investment in growth stocks and light capital, and about 80% of the positions are invested in companies with better current and future performance; and when the market style is obviously switched to value stocks later, he did not completely cut growth. share”. “Attitude of holding assets” is the anchor of his strategic philosophy. The core of understanding Danshu is to understand his understanding of valuation and cheapness.
3. Is Dan Shu worth investing?
The market style is changeable. I tend to think that the most important thing is to see whether the fund manager’s strategy is mature and effective, and the second is whether the character is reliable.
Excessive returns are either to make money that is ineffective in the market (time selection, volatility trading ability), or to choose an excellent company (stock selection). The first point is difficult, and it may not always be right. Maybe you lose all in one game. The second point is that the individual investor is relatively controllable. Therefore, the problem is decomposed into whether the fund manager’s strategy is mature and effective, and whether the fund manager is reliable (whether the character is reliable).
Regarding whether the strategy is effective, Dan Shu’s attitude of holding assets, low valuation, and deterministic logic are essentially in line with the value theory of economics and the simple mean reversion. And he doesn’t just look at cheapness. The key to his cheapness is whether the business model can be sustained . The cheapness discounted by future cash flow is the real cheapness. Behind this is an in-depth study of individual stocks. His holdings include 50pe, 40pe, and pe infinite loss-making stocks. It doesn’t matter whether the current pe of the target is cheap. “Today’s 40pe position is expected to be 10pe next year and has room for long-term sustainable growth. Today’s loss target, we expect In the future, there are opportunities to change the industry and bring light of hope to mankind.”
In terms of character, this topic seems to be somewhat metaphysical. I think the most important thing is to see how the fund managers respond to the big ups and downs. Buddha said: Before the epiphany, chop wood and carry water; after the epiphany, chop wood and carry water. The same is true for ups and downs. When it goes up, it’s you, and when it goes down, it’s still you. Don’t be happy with things and not be sad about yourself, keep restraint, peace and calm .
When he was rubbed by the track in 2020, Dan Shu’s post was full of remarks about teaching stocks, and the group friends sent him positions, all of which were great track stocks. Dan Shu also responded with a post, “After the epidemic, I didn’t keep up with the hot spots in the market. People have to step on both feet, and it’s okay… Investing is a lifetime thing, you don’t need to care about yesterday, today or tomorrow, just be normal. Thank you to the friends who have supported and are still supporting, and wish you a smooth investment!”
It’s not that Dan Shu didn’t feel the style switch, and he also has a certain proportion of growth stocks in his portfolio, but his framework determines that he can’t convince himself to invest a larger proportion of growth positions. Based on his own investment logic, Dan Shu has his own persistence. We can’t blame a fund manager for why he makes less or loses so much, we should gain insight into whether he is consistently practicing his philosophy and strategy. After all, when you bought it, it was for his logic. If this logic is wrong, then just vote with your feet.
After reading the down, we are bullish again. In this year when the performance is enviable, what does Dan Shu think of it? On July 6 this year, when the product reached a new high, he posted a post, saying plainly, “There is no need to cheer if the position has risen well. Of course, if it falls, there is no need to complain about the world… If it rises too much, the demand shrinks and people are worried about it. The price is reasonable and the demand is there. For protection, you don’t have to worry about your peers breaking their heads. The same is true for stocks, sell a little when they rise, and buy back a little when they fall. There is no need to fight for the day and night.”
Good performance and natural exposure are high. At this high-profile moment this year, Dan Shu is still that Dan Shu.
I remember one of the problems of Snowball Asset Management’s roadshow in July was asking Dan Shu to rate his performance. He gave himself only 7 points. When talking about his dissatisfaction with the loss of points, he said sincerely and frankly: “In 2020, I lost a lot of friends who trusted me. After the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the capital market is relatively hot, especially hot. I am very sorry that it was not able to bring them any benefits, and sometimes it is still quite uncomfortable… In the process of adjustment for more than a year, it can bring some benefits and hope to investors in a relatively cold stage. Before the headwind OK. No matter what, I would like to thank the investors who once trusted and still support them, and wish my friends better and better.” I can feel that Dan Shu cherishes the relationship with investors very much. Investing is a journey. In this era of filters, entrustment and entrustment, you and I are both fellow travelers. Trust and honesty are more important than anything else.
Of course, as a professional fund manager, the industry and the public have a more rigorous evaluation perspective. Including whether to standardize, evolution ability, how to do risk control, etc. Danshu’s products are distributed through Xueqiu, which means that Danshu is the fund manager of Xueqiu, and Xueqiu undertakes all work other than investment. I believe that Abbot’s platform is reliable.
The ability to evolve is a dynamic issue, and people who want to buy his products need to look at it dynamically. I believe that the undervalued value and reversed style of Danshu should be more than enough for the current size. Many people will be concerned about whether there are researchers in Danshu. I think investing is not a science, but more of an art, where vague rightness is more important than precise wrongness. Many private equity managers need a dedicated investment research team in the later stage of development. Investment research is still quite asset-heavy, but whether it is useful or not varies from person to person. Dan Shu himself said that he also reads research reports and has external seller resources. In the Internet age, there is no shortage of information, what is lacking is the ability to process information. Regardless of whether it is snowball or outside, information and opinions are extremely rich, but the fund manager’s operating system is more important, whether it can handle this information, and what is the screening and decision-making system in company research.
Regarding risk control, this may be the disadvantage of most grass-roots fund managers than Keban. The stock selection ability of the Eight Immortals will show their magical powers. Portfolio management and risk management still need certain methodology and platform mechanism constraints. I think the main thing is to look ahead and control the risk in stock selection. Danshu is characterized by low valuation and reverse, and investment philosophy is an invisible constraint. In addition, Xueqiu Asset Management is also a regulated private equity company. I have seen that Xueqiu platform itself also has risk control. For example, there is a blacklist, and it is forbidden to buy st; industry and single-ticket restrictions, industry and single-ticket shareholding concentration A degree higher than 30% is not allowed; if a stock is not held in the core stock, more than 10% will have risk control measures immediately; if there is a reverse transaction, the system will exclude it at the ordering stage, and so on.
Fourth, the last
I have been diving and watching the snowball gods from all walks of life, which coincides with the fourth anniversary of Dan Shu. I have been watching him all the way from his debut as a big V to the transformation of a fund manager.
In the words of the book of alchemy, there is no need to fight for the day and night. Live long and live well is the last word.
Investing is a lonely journey, and I am grateful for the inspiration and thinking that Dan Shu’s sharing has brought me. I also wish the great god of private equity of Danshu Changhong, a happy fourth anniversary!
#DanielBook 4th Anniversary# @雪ball asset management @雪ball private equity @danshu iron coupons
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