2022 is a year of serious investment losses, with a loss of 33%, the second largest in history, second only to 2018, but the loss amount is nearly twice that of 2018, and the loss exceeds 8 figures, which is not bad! ! ! Compared with Xueqiu’s 2022 summary, I haven’t found a case with a larger loss ratio or loss than mine. It seems that this year I am the number one in Xiti.
My summary in 2021 is “value is volatile, risk control is the priority”, now it seems like a joke, and risk control in 2022 is not done well. Why did you lose so much? To put it simply, after stopping the loss of the original holdings of Xinao shares and Guodian NARI, they switched positions into high-ranked Jerry shares and some US stocks, and then they were cheated out of the stop loss again, resulting in a combined loss of 33%. . However, this is only a superficial summary. The deep-seated reason for the loss is actually-the times have created stock gods, and now the times have changed . The way I used to do it can no longer be used.
Since I entered the market, in February 2021, my income has reached the highest, and the cumulative income has reached more than 300 times. The total scale has broken through half of the small target. At that time, I was full of energy and felt that the small target was within sight. The later story was just the opposite, the position was constantly weakened, and there was a vicious cycle of stop loss-exchange position-stop loss. The main reason for this is that the growth stocks I used to rely on to make high-yield investments were concentrated on the best companies in China that were listed overseas and that I could understand, and I used long-term holdings to obtain growth benefits These targets are mainly Internet companies, including Qihoo 360, Meituan, Tencent, Xiabu, etc. However, since Alipay failed to go public and anti-monopoly began, the long-term growth logic and long-term value of these companies have suffered flaws , cannot continue.
I was also aware of the above problems and tried to switch to A shares to continue my growth stock investment career, but unfortunately, the logic of A shares proved to be different. Since 2017, when I officially invested heavily in A-shares, I have invested in Sunshine City, Muyuan, ENN, Guodian Nanrui, Tomson By-health, and Jerry. Four of them made money and two lost money, but no matter whether they made money or lost money, looking back I found that there were obvious problems with the logic of my growth stocks, and what was even more frightening was that I lost to the main players or market makers in these six stocks. why? In the past 5 years, I have been doing A-shares seriously. Looking at A-shares, I found that almost all private enterprises (including some state-owned enterprises) have the first goal of trapping small shareholders. A result is just a matter of time sooner or later. And I’m just a small stockholder with hundreds of millions of extremely vulnerable people. I also lack information, capital, and professional knowledge. The companies I have to face are all trying to collect money or reduce their holdings. They can manipulate information, stock prices, reports, and watch their opponents. Fang is difficult to be restrained, and his strength is at least two orders of magnitude different. How can he win in the long run? So? Can we invest in mature markets such as US stocks to obtain excess returns? It is a pity that this will not be possible in the long run, because for those companies that I do not understand US stocks, it is difficult to read English financial reports, let alone understand their business, which is also a dead end.
After thinking about the above, I am actually a little sad personally. The stock gods of the times, everyone is the floating dust of the times! But since people are alive, they should do something, so I made some major adjustments in 2022, trying not to fall out of class, and think about whether to make money or not.
1. I lost 1/3, and there are 2/3 left. I took out about 30% of the funds and bought a house in the core area of Beijing. It’s real when it arrives.
2. Look at it with a ten-year perspective to prevent falling from the middle class. The houses in the most core area of Beijing should be the most resistant assets in China, which can effectively resist inflation and keep up with the speed of economic growth. No matter what I do in the stock investment in the future, at least I will not lose everything.
3. I often hear people say that there is no real “value investor” before the age of 40. Well, if I used to be a pseudo-value investor looking at future value, then I am no longer confused in 2023. I want to transform into a real static investor Value investors will focus on the protection of true value, such as convertible bonds with YTM>0 and no default. A-share investment will focus on national core assets with low debt and high dividends. As for excess returns? Try to see if you can combine technology to make a certain band, otherwise it will be difficult for the annual rate to exceed 10%.
Well, in fact, the above is to rebuild the investment system. The stock god of the times is gone, and the high probability of 180 times the income achieved in the past 18 years will be difficult to replicate! But one has to look ahead. If the previous goal was to pursue a 50% annual return while avoiding losses as much as possible, then the future goal is to pursue as high a return as possible while the drawdown is not greater than 10%. As long as the retracement is controlled and the compound interest rolls on, combined with my current remaining volume, the absolute return will still far exceed the previous 18 years.
Finally, I hope that the country will live in peace and prosperity! After all, we are all in the same boat! There is an era before there is a stock god!
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