As of September 30, most A-share broad-based indexes and Hang Seng indexes have fallen for three consecutive weeks, and the monthly line of the partial-share mixed fund index has once again fallen into the long-term moving average group.
Historically, it is not uncommon for the stock-biased mixed fund index to fall into the long-term moving average group on a monthly basis. There have been obvious rises, and the huge increases in 2004-2005 and 2019-2020 should be regarded as big bull markets.
I am an optimist, so on September 30, I chose to invest the incremental funds that should have been invested in October in advance, and the direction of adding positions is also very clear:
1. High-end manufacturing theme fund, I believe that industrial upgrading and innovation are the hope of China’s future.
2. Active quantitative funds with the partial stock mixed fund index as the enhanced target, because my investment performance benchmark is also the partial stock mixed fund index.
3. The hard-hit Hong Kong stock market and China Concept Internet.
4. Other constituent funds in my fund portfolio.
Of course, history will not simply repeat, and the “background” of this round of decline seems to be different from the past, and the external environment is particularly complex and severe.
However, there is nothing new under the sun, and every recession and crisis actually provides an excellent entry for long-term investors.
We often complain that some indexes of A-shares have returned to the positions of several years ago in the bear market, but if we change our thinking, we can gradually make arrangements when the past has fallen horribly (for example, the partial stock mixed fund index has fallen on the monthly line. Long-term moving average group (2008, 2012, 2008), in fact, long-term returns will not be bad, even in bear market calculations.
The only thing that prevents us from starting is “this time is different”, worrying that the stock market will never rise again if it falls.
There are two “pushers” for the rise of the stock market. One is that listed companies continue to make profits and grow, and the other is that currency issuance continues to increase. For a modern economy dominated by a market economy, these two things are almost a certainty in the long run.
Therefore, I never worry about the issue of “not going back up”, because I choose to believe in the fortune of the country and that the People’s Republic of China will surely prosper.
I think long-term investors really need to have that belief. Even Buffett said more than once that he won the “ovarian lottery” and that he was born in the United States instead of Bangladesh, which gave him the courage to insist on long-term value investing.
And we are also fortunate to be born in “safe China” and “prosperous China”, a country that is more open, has a stable regime, a complete industrial system, and has hard-working people who are tirelessly pursuing a better life. We also have the confidence to persist in long-term value investment. .
On the occasion of the 73rd anniversary of the People’s Republic of China, Lazy Yangji wishes all friends a successful investment!
All the opinions and funds involved in this article do not constitute investment advice, but are only a true record of my own thinking and practice. I invest in the market based on this, at my own risk.
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