The new energy purchase subsidy policy is about to end on December 31. Affected by this, major new energy car companies have also made frequent moves recently.
On December 2, Tesla stated that consumers who buy an existing car in December and pick up the car on schedule can enjoy an insurance subsidy of 4,000 yuan. If they order Model 3 or Model Y and complete the delivery, they can get 20,000 “treasure box” points rewards, which can be exchanged for 5,000 kilometers overcharge mileage, etc.
On December 1, Geely officially announced the “limited-time price guarantee”, and orders that complete the deposit payment before December 31, 2022 can continue to enjoy the national new energy subsidy.
On November 30, Xiaopeng Motors announced on its official Weibo that it has launched a limited-time price guarantee policy. In addition, FAW-Volkswagen ID, Changan Deep Blue, Geely, NIO, AITO, Lantu, etc. have all announced “limited-time price guarantee” measures, roughly the same rules.
On the other hand, with the end of the state subsidy, many car companies have also begun to raise prices.
On November 30, GAC Aian stated in a statement that it will increase the official guide prices of its related models, ranging from 3,000 to 8,000 yuan.
On November 23, BYD Auto planned to adjust the official guide prices of its various new energy models, with an increase ranging from 2,000 to 6,000 yuan.
Subsidies are coming to an end, but car companies are also less dependent on them
As mentioned in the previous article, the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles began in 2009. It was only piloted in 13 cities including Beijing, Shanghai, and Chongqing at the earliest, and it was not promoted nationwide until 2015.
In terms of subsidy conditions, before 2013, the subsidy conditions mainly focused on fuel-saving capabilities; from 2013 to 2017, the subsidy policy for new energy passenger vehicles mainly used pure electric cruising range as the subsidy calculation index; starting from 2017, the subsidy policy introduced battery energy density And power consumption per 100 kilometers as the assessment index, and calculate the subsidy coefficient based on this.
In terms of subsidy intensity, before 2013, the subsidy standard was 60,000 yuan for pure electric vehicles and 4,000-50,000 yuan for gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles; after 2013, the subsidy benchmark decreased year by year. 12,600 yuan (provided that the cruising range is ≥ 400km).
However, with the development of the industry, the dependence of new energy vehicles on subsidies has also gradually decreased. According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the proportion of new energy vehicles receiving state subsidies from 2017 to 2021 has been decreasing year by year. In 2017, it was 78%. This figure dropped rapidly to 63%, accounting for only 47% in 2021. At the same time, the existence of subsidies is also gradually weakening. From 2015 to 2020, the average domestic subsidy for new energy vehicles dropped from 106,400 yuan to 23,600 yuan.
In addition, the revenue share of new energy subsidies for leading car companies is also decreasing year by year, and will remain within 15% in 2021. Among them, Great Wall Motor’s new energy vehicle subsidies account for the highest proportion of new energy vehicle revenue, at 14.7%; followed by Changan Automobile and Guangzhou Automobile Group accounted for 10.2% and 10.1% respectively; while SAIC Group accounted for only 5.3%, already at a relatively low level.
The end of the subsidy drives the price of car companies, but the scale is small
Regarding the impact of reimbursement, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, said that most new energy car companies are still in a state of loss, the market competition is fierce, and a few car companies have the pricing power. There may be a small round of price increases from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, and several car companies may follow up, but the scale will not be too large.
Nanfang Daily quoted industry insiders as saying that because of their impressive sales volume, BYD and Aion can respond to the market without “national subsidies” by raising prices, but most of the rest of the new energy vehicle brands are under huge pressure on sales KPI, so they can only wait and see. host.
Caitong Securities believes that the difference in product profitability may lead car companies to choose different impulse strategies. Companies with stronger profitability may be able to better respond to changes in terminal prices. Companies with stronger product capabilities can partially transmit them through price increases. Price pressures brought about by rising costs and downward subsidies, and “insurance” may become the preferred strategy for new energy car companies in the short term.
What do you think of the production and sales of new energy vehicles next year?
Regarding the market outlook, CITIC Securities stated that due to the current insufficient delivery capabilities of auto companies and the demonstration of subsidy gaps by some auto companies, it is expected that the impact of overdraft on sales of auto companies in the first quarter of next year will be weaker than in previous years. In the future, more car companies will launch phased sales plans to compensate customers for undelivered orders in the fourth quarter of this year. These orders are expected to be delivered in the first quarter of 2023, and the negative impact on the subsidy reduction in the first quarter of next year will be controllable. .
The analysis pointed out that the general trend of smart electric vehicles in the industry will continue to accelerate in the future. The impact of the withdrawal of subsidies at the end of the year will be limited, and the electrification and intelligence will be booming. It is estimated that domestic sales of new energy vehicles will reach 9 million in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 31%. At the same time, the industry has entered a new stage of stable growth, and the improvement of product experience and cost reduction brought about by continuous technological innovation and security upgrades are the main directions for the future development of the industry.
This article is from ” Wall Street Insights “, author: Zhang Jin, 36 Krypton is authorized to publish.
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