Thoughts on when the white-feather industry will reverse

I have been tracking white-feather chickens since last year. Recently, after the price of chickens broke through 4 yuan, I saw a lot of people saying that white-feather chickens are about to reverse their cycle. Let me tell you my opinion here. It is too early to see white-feather chickens reversing. However, there are also some extreme possibilities, that is, if a large-scale avian flu breaks out in China and passively cuts production capacity, there may be an early reversal.

Let’s use data to explain why I think it is relatively early for white-feather chickens to say reversal. First of all, if we borrow a picture and do not consider the situation of forced moulting, the normal breeding cycle of white-feather chickens is shown in the following figure:

183f7b823621ec943f9229d0.jpeg

It can be clearly seen from the figure that:

The grandparents are culled around 66 weeks after introduction, and the parent breeders are culled around 68 weeks after hatching.

Therefore, the reduction in the number of introduced grandparents will ultimately affect the supply of parental chicks after 66 weeks and the supply of commercial chicks after 134 weeks.

Quoting the introduction data of grandparent chickens in the last 20, 21 and 22 years:

183f7b857381eab63fea00a4.jpeg

The number of grandparent chickens introduced in 20 years is close to 1 million sets, and the number of grandparent chickens introduced in 21 years is close to 1.2 million sets. From the historical data, the balance between supply and demand of grandparent chickens is about 700,000-800,000 sets, so from 20 In terms of the number of introduced species in 2010 and 21 years ago, there is a large surplus.

Of course, due to the outbreak of avian influenza in Europe, the United States and other countries in 2022 and the control of the epidemic, the number of introductions from May to August decreased, but according to the introduction data in August, some introductions have been restored. Assuming a base point of May 2022, after 66 weeks, the supply of parent chicks will likely decrease, and after 134 weeks, the supply of commercial chicks may decrease. After conversion, the supply of parental chicks may decrease around August 23, and the supply of commercial chicks may decrease in November 24.

The impact of forced moulting and domestic Shengnong’s breeders on the subsequent overall supply and demand has not been considered here. In addition, since these white-feathered chicken companies made a lot of money in the last cycle, assuming that after the introduction of foreign breeding, there will be retaliation. The situation of sexual introduction is also difficult to say. Therefore, at present, in the next 1-2 years, the overall supply side of white feather chickens will be relatively sufficient, and there is no sign of a major cycle reversal. From the above analysis, excluding the influence of external forces, at least the second half of 24 years will have the possibility of reversal sex. $ Minhe Shares (SZ002234)$ $ Yisheng Shares (SZ002458)$

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