[Translation]: Five periods of strategic opportunity after the Cold War (middle)

Original link: https://wmdpd.com/zhuan-leng-zhan-hou-de-wu-ge-zhan-lue-ji-yu-qi-zhong/

The third opportunity period. From the 2008 financial crisis to early 2016, many countries signed the TPP . This is basically the Obama era (albeit from Bush Jr.), and I wrote an article summarizing the Obama era, which is repeated slightly below.

There are six international bases for this Opportunity Period. First, the financial crisis has hit the United States hard while China is still developing strongly, which allows China to gradually shape a new situation in the global economy and politics. Second, during Obama’s administration, the country went into political chaos, which seriously damaged his ability to control China. Third, in the struggle in the military and intelligence fields, Putin broke Obama. Fourth, the Arab Spring undermined the overall situation in the Middle East, seriously hampering the United States and hurting Europe. The fifth is the existence of two generations of Kim’s touchstones. Sixth, the United States misunderstands and uses the Internet in politics . In addition, there are other factors such as the sluggish economic recovery in Europe (which is conducive to the entry of Chinese forces into Europe).

The basics are well known. The financial crisis had two very important consequences. One is that China has built super-infrastructure , and the other is that the US government has lost hope of getting rid of its debt . As a result, China has the most solid foundation for the Belt and Road Initiative (infrastructure stunts) and the US government has lost one of the two most handy economic and diplomatic means (economic aid) since World War II . The US government has another handy tool: providing markets . This should be the decision-making background for the Obama administration to start TPP. But the economic and political changes in the United States triggered by the financial crisis itself severely limited the government’s leeway to do so, so much so that Obama ended up failing (see below).

What changes? The contradiction between the international faction and the local faction is prominent . The international faction (the group that dominates and benefits from globalization) has mastered advanced productive forces, and to a large extent represents the development requirements of advanced productive forces . The local faction (who considers itself to be disadvantaged by the existing globalization rules) considers itself to represent the fundamental interests of the vast majority of the American people , although in reality many of them still rely on the wealth that the international faction has brought about (of course the distribution is indeed unfair). The two factions have very different visions and interests, and each sees itself as representing the direction in which advanced culture (and ideology) is headed , and which brings cultural struggles into fierce political struggles. There are also fierce struggles within the same faction economically, resulting in political disunity, often separated by ideological and cultural orientation. For example, there are populists who support Trump in the local faction, and there are “democratic socialism” leftists who support Sanders. When the crisis is heavy, no core leadership organization can achieve three representatives at the same time, and infighting is naturally fierce.

In all fairness, this has been in the works since Reagan’s neoliberalism. However, after the Cold War, the United States successively won three major economic dividends from the victory of the Cold War (to the Soviet Union and the East and to Japan), the Internet revolution, and the Sino-US economic honeymoon period (the Bush era). Therefore, the contradiction can be greatly alleviated. Since the Obama era, the dividends have gradually been exhausted (in fact, China’s side has not exhausted, but the US hegemony mentality can no longer accommodate the co-prosperity of China and the United States). This profound change in the domestic situation in the United States will extend beyond this period of opportunity, which is a long-term benefit for China.

Under the unfavorable situation of the United States using the economy to win over developing countries (TPP did not make substantial progress until the end of Obama), China’s policies such as exporting infrastructure and loans, regardless of internal affairs, opening the market, and purchasing resources have become very competitive . Even some non-developing countries (such as Europe) have joined the BRI. The AIIB’s response should be a wake-up call to the United States.

Basic 2 is worth talking about. How absurd is it that Obama can be president without any administrative experience? Coupled with a disinterested family background, his road to power is very difficult . When he first came to power, he had some rhetoric, but soon there were more than one serious breach of presidential security (this was reported by the mainstream media in the United States and officially recognized), for example, in 2009, there was a social gangster who infiltrated Obama without being invited. and shook hands with Obama. These may be warnings to the amateur Obama. 10 years ago, he also publicly spoke at a public opportunity (to the effect): Some powerful people in Washington treat me like a dog (no exaggeration, there is a video of the speech).

In short, after being president for a while, his spirit was clearly setback. He failed to strongly restrain (let alone punish) all kinds of financial giants (this is what many supporters expected when he took office). The military torment in the Middle East (and even a large number of troops in Afghanistan at the end of 2009), even the notorious Guantanamo prison could not be closed (this is what he vowed to do when he took office).

On the other hand, in the context of the economic crisis, interest groups are still very arrogant . In a landmark event, the Supreme Court ruled in early 2010 that caps on corporate political donations in elections must be lifted. The reason turned out to be: Setting a cap on corporate political donations would undermine the company’s freedom of speech and would be unconstitutional. The ruling immediately aroused strong public outrage. Obama staunchly opposed the ruling, saying it was a major victory for interest groups such as Wall Street, but his objections were also to no avail under the separation of powers system.

After the swift disappointment of Obama, who came to power shouting “change”, two civil movements have sprung up. One is the left-wing Occupy Wall Street movement, which shouted the slogans of 1% and 99%. The second is the tea party that carried out the main brand of the founding god. The former is a precursor to the rise of Sanders, and the latter is a preview of the rise of Trump. As a result, the populism in the United States has risen strongly , overthrowing the Republican establishment and defeating the Democratic establishment in 2016. This is a political struggle that has never been seen in the 1960s.

Another important aspect of the political chaos in the United States is that there were serious problems in the control and command of the military and intelligence services during Obama’s presidency . The incidents that I have an impression of are: the Afghan Supreme Commander McCallister incident, the Iraq-Afghanistan Supreme Commander and CIA Director Petraeus Incident, the Army Intelligence Director Flynn Incident, the Snowden Incident, the WikiLeaks Incident, The Libyan ambassador incident, the Turkish mutiny involving the CIA and the nuclear weapons base incident, the Pacific Fleet Commander Harris’s departure incident, and several ISIS incidents (the thread is too confusing for me to sort out). The army and the intelligence department went alone, and the army, the intelligence department and the executive branch fought each other one after another. In the George W. Bush era before Obama, the Bush family and the old Bush family were corrupt and reckless, but they were still in control. Obama’s chaotic government has created a serious problem for the future top leaders of the United States.

In addition, the ethnic conflicts in the United States intensified seriously during his tenure. Before Obama, it was mostly racial and class conflict. By messing around with political correctness, the Obama era set an unprecedented precedent for gender and sexuality contradictions to be elevated to major social contradictions.

American politics, which began to decline during the Clinton era, went downhill during the George W. Bush era, went into chaos during the Obama era, and finally bore the rotten fruit of the Trump regime.

Regarding the third foundation, Putin is really a hero. Obama loses three times to Putin . First, messing with Ukraine led to the Crimea Incident , and Putin seized Crimea. The United States can only engage in sanctions, and as long as China’s economy in Russia can withstand it . It is a matter of opinion on the pros and cons of this matter for Russia (I think the pros outweigh the cons), but it is indeed a big blow to the prestige and geopolitical intentions of the United States. The second is that Putin saw through the interference of foreign forces in Syria, and Russia ended up winning (marked by assad’s firmness) . Third, the hesitation about Russian infiltration finally led to interference in the election, which seriously damaged the political ecology of the United States. Of course, this last incident may also be the Democratic Party’s slander of Putin, but the truth is no longer important. The reality is that many Americans accept this conspiracy theory or believe it with skepticism. The powerful image of Putin’s ability to interfere with the United States has been established, and the United States has not been able to make strong countermeasures against Putin after this. In short, the double outbreak of military intelligence, Putin is as powerful as a dragon.

The confrontation with Putin not only seriously undermined Obama’s strategy of containing China, but also greatly strengthened the status quo of triangular relations (of which the Crimea matter is the most critical), and it is extremely difficult for people to reverse it later.

About foundation four. During the Arab Spring, despite the opposition of the military, Obama mistakenly abandoned the pro-American military leaders in the Middle East, leading to chaos in the Middle East, and the US’s dominance in the Middle East was severely weakened. Old allies in the Middle East are chilled, feared, and lost in loyalty (Mubarak’s cage and Gaddafi’s death were especially poignant). Erdogan, whose life is constantly tossing and not only capricious, has great talent, has been defeated and failed, has been activated. ISIS has risen. Saudi and Israel have their own ghosts. Iran and Russia are expanding. The situation in the Middle East is out of control.

The flow of refugees caused by the U.S.’s chaotic politics in the Middle East has impacted Europe, profoundly affecting European politics and seriously hurting the U.S.-European alliance. The divisive impact on European politics has made it easier for Chinese forces to enter Europe.

The mistakes of the Middle East policy have seriously restrained Obama’s energy in the struggle against China. Some of these things (such as Benghazi, ISIS, etc.) will drag down the election of Hillary Clinton, the successor, in the future, and indirectly lead to the Obamas leaving the government.

The above foundations tease out the chaos of the Obama regime in many ways. Under such circumstances, China’s diplomacy has resolutely attacked and achieved significant results. In addition to the economic ones mentioned above (such as the Belt and Road Initiative) and those involving triangular relations, the geopolitical aspects and the influence of international organizations have also gained a lot .

After the financial crisis in 2008, China began an aggressive policy in terms of geopolitics . The first step is the Gulf of Aden escort that began at the end of 2008. This first step is a big step, and it seems to show China’s huge ambitions. In the 2011 Libyan evacuation incident, China has proved that it may still have considerable mobilization power outside China’s periphery, but the United States does not seem to pay attention. After that, there were regular patrols on the Diaoyu Islands, the establishment of the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone, and cruises on the Mekong River. Of course, the biggest move was the island building in the South China Sea that began at the end of 2013. The United States has done nothing during the more than two years of island building.

It is worth listing separately that China controlled many key ports during this period : Hambantota, Gwadar, Djibouti (later became the PLA’s first overseas base), Piraeus, etc., extending from the Indian Ocean to Mediterranean. This is closely related to the Belt and Road Initiative. The West and India have begun to talk uneasily about China’s “string of pearls” strategy but there seems to be little countermeasure.

China’s influence in many international organizations has grown rapidly . During the period from Bush Jr. to Obama, the United States gradually lost its ability to use international organizations to put pressure on China. Think about why the United States keeps accusing China of engaging in unfair trade and destroying intellectual property rights, but cannot use the WTO and the Intellectual Property Organization to deal with China? Aren’t these organizations held by the United States for many years and China joined very late? Yes, but Chinese influence has come behind, at least effectively preventing them from becoming a tool for the United States to deal with China. Part of the reason for Trump’s later withdrawal from the group should be that the United States lacks control over international organizations and agreements. For example, the United Nations human rights organization is believed by the United States to be manipulated by China for a long time. Instead of attacking China, the United States is angrily withdrawn.

In short, I think these developments are the infrastructure construction of China’s diplomacy. Some of them, such as port control, China’s large number of UN peacekeeping troops (as if the number is the largest in the world), China’s infiltration in some professional technical organizations, etc. may play an unexpectedly large role in the future. In fact, there is already an important example. This year, everyone has seen how precious it is to have an old friend of the Chinese people (Tedros) in the WHO.

About foundation five. This actually started in the Bush Jr. or even Clinton era, but a lot of fierce games took place in the Obama era , so I will discuss it here. It must be admitted that the nuclear issue on the Korean peninsula at least once made China’s diplomacy a little embarrassed and chaotic, but I think that on the whole, the two generations of heroes from the Kim family have done more good than harm to China .

North Korea is a valuable touchstone for the strategic will and fighting ability of the United States, Japan, and South Korea. Through this touchstone, China can see the fineness of the United States, Japan and South Korea, and the test does not happen directly on China (so the pressure is not so great). For example, North Korea’s more than ten years of struggle tells us that Japan and South Korea’s strategic will in foreign security struggle is very weak, and it is difficult to get rid of the United States on security issues . The assertion that the US and other countries used to threaten China that “the North Korean nuclear program will stimulate Japan and South Korea to acquire nuclear weapons” has been proved by time to be a bluff. China does not have to worry about Japan and South Korea taking the initiative to engage in major security issues . Another example is that the active war will of the United States against a nuclear opponent is very suspicious, and this suspiciousness can be used by us to effectively strengthen the threat of force against the Taiwan authorities that may change the status quo. Another example is North Korea’s long-term struggle against the United States, which proves that the US decision-makers have a strong habit of “beating the drums and passing the flowers” to the next one. There are also some repeated indications in the long-term negotiations between the United States and the DPRK that it is difficult for the United States to get rid of the serious interference of ideology on diplomacy, even if the matter is big, which greatly enhances our confidence in his inability to unite Iran and Russia.

A typical case is the Tianan ship incident in 2010. The South Korean ship Cheonan sank, the United States and South Korea said that North Korea did it. The U.S. Navy concentrated in the Yellow Sea to threaten North Korea, triggering a strong reaction from China. In the end, the United States withdrew its troops without punishment. This can actually be seen as a small preview of the confrontation in the South China Sea 6 years later . Perhaps our policymakers had this event in mind during the 2016 South China Sea standoff.

In a word, although the process was a little thrilling, but in the end, there was no danger. Now North Korea is safe and the relationship between China and North Korea has been harmonious for some years (this also has something to do with Trump). Given the weakening of U.S. power, the diplomatic embarrassment of the past is presumably gone. Although there are things like THAAD’s entry into South Korea, it can’t stop the trend of changing in my favor in the military balance in the Western Pacific. And China’s experience in coordinating North Korea’s struggle against the United States is a real benefit.

About foundation six. One of the reasons Obama came to power was that he used the Internet to help elections well. Obama and Hillary Clinton on stage paid special attention to the influence of Internet social media on foreign politics . Marked events include: Google leaving China, the role of social networks in the 11-year Arab Spring, inciting the unsuccessful color revolution in Iran, and Hillary Clinton launching the Internet to block Putin during the 2012 Russian election. The last of these may have put a lot of pressure on Putin, as he was elected in 2012 with a particularly low number of votes, and he was moved to tears when he succeeded.

Note that these are not conspiracy theories, they are reported by the United States itself, and Obama and Hillary Clinton proudly brought them out to speak publicly. However, before the end of the term, the evil force revolved. During the 2016 election, conspiracy theories against Hillary Clinton emerged in the US online, which greatly damaged her image. The Democratic Party said that Putin sent someone to do it, and also said that Putin had the motive to take revenge for 2012.

Here I will talk about my views on the politicization of the Internet in the United States. The next two paragraphs are excerpts from one of my key political essays.

The American political system creates continuous mass movements . This is because the masses are mobilized on a large scale in every election, and the two-party system is particularly prone to a clear confrontation between the enemy and us. Of course, the method of mass movement is literary, not martial. Before the Internet era, because the media was newspapers and television, it was more difficult for the masses to speak out, and the establishment could control the intensity of mass infighting. But the rise of the Internet age coincided with America’s victory in the Cold War. At that time, the American establishment was overconfident and really careless, resulting in a large part of the control of the Internet falling into the hands of the upstarts in information technology. These technological upstarts are not very politically capable, and some have some unrealistic idealism. The result is that no one takes overall political responsibility for Internet speech .

It has developed to the present, which is the loss of control of online public opinion, and the resulting internal political division and serious ideological struggle. Iconic events: 1. Trump overthrew the Republican establishment in 2015-2016, 2. Trump defeated the Democratic establishment in 2016, 3. Since 2017, a fairly high percentage of Americans have accepted Russians to help Trump Elected conspiracy theory. These few things are inseparable from the strong agitation and organization of the Internet for mass infighting (this is a consensus in the United States).

Citation is complete. The U.S. ruling class’s disdain for the risks of the politicization of the Internet didn’t begin with Obama. But the big things started in the Obama years. It might have been a lot better if he had come to power with some careful control based on the power that social networks had already emerged in 2008, rather than hyped up social network politics.

The Internet is an epoch-making revolutionary technology similar to printing. As the first generation to enter the revolution, we must be careful not to apply past experience . China is extremely cautious, and there has been no major incident so far. The United States fell into a big hole, and now I don’t see how to get out. Something went wrong in Russia, but it was largely under control. In the past two years, Russia has engaged in exercises to disconnect the country from foreign networks. It seems that there are plans for extreme situations. Putin is an intelligence officer, and I still trust him. In short, the online chaos has given China and Russia another advantage over the United States.

The six basics are explained.

While China is making a move, the United States is also trying to adopt a policy of containment. The most important thing is the economic TPP and the geopolitical return to the Asia-Pacific (or Asia-Pacific rebalancing) . Of course, because of the above-mentioned reasons, the Obama administration is more procrastinating. By early 2016, the Obama administration struggled to sign the TPP. Seeing that Hillary Clinton, who has been handed over to Qiu Hua for many years, is bound to continue the TPP strategy (although she said that she will not continue due to the needs of the election campaign) and strongly promote or even strengthen Obama’s return to the Asia-Pacific strategy with little significant results (such as rumors that later Harris, the commander of the Pacific Fleet who took a hard line against China alone, was favored by Hillary Clinton.) It seems that the period of opportunity is coming to an end. Unexpectedly, the South China Sea crisis and Trump’s election severely damaged these two strategies (Trump directly announced the end of these two strategies when he came to power), and opened up China’s fourth strategic opportunity period .

Intermission and short commentary

From the standpoint of the United States, Obama is a bad president. In 2012, after he was re-elected, Putin was re-elected and China’s 18th victory was held, I think that the competition between China and the United States has been very beneficial to China, and it is quite difficult for the United States to avoid becoming the second largest. When he left office in 2016, I thought that China had completely locked in the victory of the Sino-US competition, and the US was already brewing a big crisis.

During the Obama era, China shifted from a state of camouflaged semi-submission to a strategic offensive in the Sino-US competition, with great gains. Putin overcame Obama in a head-to-head confrontation and achieved military entry to a certain extent. Sino-Russian relations have been continuously strengthened in the struggle. Not only can the United States be unable to fight any of them, but also the two hard bones of North Korea and Iran, and the quagmire of Afghanistan and Iraq has not yet escaped. This is the International Bureau he handed over to Trump.

Originally I thought the American elite would learn a lesson. Now that we know that China is the number one challenge, we will concentrate our efforts and actively adjust our foreign policy, trying to continue (at least partially) the good momentum of the united front started by the TPP, trying to win over Russia (although it is almost impossible to pull it to the US side) and make the existing triangle Relations have loosened. My judgment on China’s lock-in victory above will not be affected, but at least the difficulty will increase.

Unexpectedly, the diplomatic and political incompetence of the United States actually broke through the bottom line of my estimation, and my black-rimmed glasses fell on the keyboard. For more information, see below.

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