After the thrilling Mondays and Tuesdays and the calm three-four-five, the overall feeling is that the League of Nations has a high probability of stabilizing this wave of decline.
Aspects of stock price retracement. In 20 trading days, -44.7% retracement, a new high since listing. In fact, it is not uncommon for white horse stocks to pull back by 30% or even cut in half. For example, Bethany, the new darling of the market, has also pulled back more than 44% from its high point recently, but it took 5 months. On the surface, it is the difference between long-term pain and short-term pain, but it is the first time I have encountered the five-and-a-half limit in such a short period of time like the League of Nations.
In terms of transaction volume. Top 10 historical single-day trading volume list: 19.08.09-259,000; 22.12.20-211,000; 19.08.29-182,300; ; 22.12.21-13.21 million; 19.09.05-13.12 million; There are 4 days within a month after the board is opened, and 6 days in the most recent month. From the degree of changing hands of chips, it is no different from re-ipo.
In hindsight, the market fell sharply.
First of all, the company’s fundamentals are fine, and everything is operating normally. This decline is a factor at the market level. In fact, whether it is malicious smearing, deliberate shorting, or brainless panic analysis, the essence is from the perspective of selling. This is not the crux of the problem. The crux of the problem lies in buying . In the short term, the market is a voting machine, using stocks as bargaining chips to achieve a balance between supply and demand. At the highest point of the stock price of 131.75 yuan, the market value of Guolian was 65.7 billion, corresponding to a profit of 2 billion+ in 2023, and the dynamic PE was less than 33 times, but the profit growth rate was 80%+. Valuation is expensive; with the price limit of 81 on Monday, the company has a market value of just over 40 billion and a dynamic PE of 20 times, but the limit is firmly blocked, and there is no volume at all. It is true that there is a feeling of panic, and they are all waiting for the lower opening the next day, but why do rational funds have no intention of buying? The company’s profit growth rate in 21 years + 22 years has been 90+, and the stock price has increased by 20%+. Why? Since its listing, the company’s stock price has basically gone all the way to the northeast, covering up an important fact: the market awareness of the League of Nations is too low. The intuitive reflection is that the shareholder structure and bargaining chip structure are seriously inconsistent with its market value and size, which is manifested as the emergence of unexpected situations. Liquidity has dried up, which is also the underlying reason for this sharp drop.
As a company with RMB 65 billion+, it has more than 13,000 shareholders, less than 24,000 followers of Xueqiu, and less than 1,000 Dongcai stock popularity all year round. Of course, these are indicators of some retail investors, but they can also reflect the real situation of potential buyers. The attention of the League of Nations is too low (most of the people who watched the incident this time) and because of the threshold of business cognition, very few people who pay attention can really understand it. That’s why many netizens say that Guolian looks like Zhuanggu, because its current shareholder structure is really weird. In addition to the management, GF, and Hong Kong capital, there are a few hardcore petty non-profits and individual shareholders. So this time, when the main shareholders basically did not move, the sale of two large domestic investors and some small and medium-sized institutions caused such a serious stampede, which is really unimaginable. The same situation is reflected in the shareholders of the League of Nations: those who understand it especially like it, and the main position is even full, and those who do not understand it stay away.
Then ask again, why is the awareness low? Theoretically, the report that investors look at most often, the League of Nations is absolutely among the top 3 and top 5 in the entire market. Why did most people not pay attention, or did they pay attention but were dissuaded by some factors? There are no more than two reasons for such a person: the profit growth rate is too fast and eye-catching, unreal, and a bit fake; the gross profit rate and net profit rate are also too low, it must be hard for business, Pass. In fact, after a little research on the company, we all know what’s going on, so I won’t expand on it. Except for a small number of people who are persuaded to quit by the financial report , the core confusion of more people and more big funds still cannot understand or understand the company’s business. Because I can’t understand and can’t see clearly, I can’t give a big position, and I can’t respect it by running first if there is trouble. This does require a process, and too many pig teammates have also added invisible difficulties to the League of Nations to improve its own cognitive level and establish its own good image in the capital market.
Therefore, in addition to doing a good job in the future, the most important thing for the League of Nations is to improve its own awareness. This is a long process. The current market is not very interested in B2B business and the industrial Internet. It is always full of remarks such as swiping orders, idling, fraud, and dirty work. The awareness is not a problem of Guolian, but there is a high probability that Guolian will come. Against this flag. The good news is, but through the GDR road show, Hong Kong capital has been a net inflow recently, which shows that foreigners still understand the company’s business.
In addition, the company’s business growth has been strong in recent years. Many friends around me think that since the market does not give high valuations or stable valuations, why not let go on the basis of guaranteed supply and run, 150%+ or even 200%+, as soon as possible. I personally have reservations about this suggestion. Because generally speaking, the market for stable growth companies has relatively stable expectations, and it is easy to give high valuations, and the valuation range is also stable. The steady growth of the League of Nations in the past few years has not brought stable and high valuations. It is not a problem of stable growth itself, but a problem of awareness brought about by its business attributes. Aier has grown by about 30% in more than ten years, and its valuation is very stable. In the short term, some people have questioned fraud, but in the long run, more reactions from the market are that the company’s control over business development is strong enough. The stable growth strategy of Guolian is based on the long-term, and the growth rate of 80+ is fast enough. Although it is in the initial stage, compared with Pinduoduo, the competition intensity of Guolian is not very strong. bad thing.
After this turmoil, more information, data and exchanges of Guolian came out, which also gave our shareholders a good window and perspective to understand the company again. The company level was also taught a good lesson by the capital market, a compulsory course for the development of a market value of 100 billion yuan and a leader in the industrial Internet. In the long run, this is a good thing.
On Wednesday night, Shengjing Peng and Yibang Zheng had a three-hour discussion and analysis on the League of Nations. It was very valuable. If you are interested, you can take a good look. It basically explained the League of Nations very clearly.
@今日读论$ Guolian Shares(SH603613)$ $Kweichow Moutai(SH600519)$ $Aier Ophthalmology(SZ300015)$
There are 6 discussions on this topic in Xueqiu, click to view.
Snowball is an investor social network where smart investors are all here.
Click to download Xueqiu mobile client http://xueqiu.com/xz ]]>
This article is transferred from: http://xueqiu.com/9001980664/238526476
This site is only for collection, and the copyright belongs to the original author.