[Turn]: The history of the United States and China

Original link: https://wmdpd.com/zhuan-li-shi-shang-de-mei-guo-long-zhong-dui/

Also from the article of Shougong @Sustained Low Entropy column.

A brain hole can only be a brain hole. Although the opportunity is in front of the United States, but Roosevelt is not a holiday, and without the support of a powerful authoritarian figure, similar grand strategies will not be possible to implement, especially in the American political system. The resulting policy swings every four or eight years, making it nearly impossible to implement strategic behavior firmly and correctly. Just look at the continuation of recent Trump and Biden policies.

The disintegration of the Soviet Union was not so much the US strategically correct as the Soviet Union’s strategically wrong.

Once again, this world is a rotten world, and no one but the CCP can implement a real grand strategy.

Therefore, only investing in the public is the only correct solution, seriously, haha.

The following text:

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Preamble

The following is a collection of four articles on the grand strategy that should be pursued in the two major periods of opportunity for the United States in history (after World War II and after the Cold War). The first was published on June 2, 2019, and the second was published on February 20, 2020, both of which are contributions to America in 1945. The third article was published on April 30, 2021, and the fourth article was published on May 8, 2021. It is a contribution to the United States in 1991. For the sake of content cohesion, individual paragraphs at the beginning and end have been slightly modified.

One 1945 Longzhong Countermeasures

I think that the United States did not launch a large-scale war to annex territory after World War II as the biggest strategic mistake in American history .

After 1945 the United States should

1. Continue to manufacture weapons on a large scale, especially nuclear weapons, and do not disarm (the United States had more than 10 million soldiers at that time).

2. Vigorously publicize the following view : nation-states will destroy human civilization in the flames of war. In just 30 years, two world wars have been fought. Is the lesson not profound enough? The internal cannibalism of capitalism can only be avoided by abandoning the nation-state and narrow-minded nationalism, and establishing a trans-ethnic, racial and geographic confederation based on the ideology of liberalism. This idea would be attractive to Western Europe and Japan: peace for the lower, unprecedented unity of capitalism for the upper, and freedom from nationalist vengeance for Germany and Japan.

3. Based on 2, the United States took the lead in abandoning its own country and co-founded this liberal confederation with Britain, France, Belgium and the Netherlands and other former Western European countries. The Confederation has jurisdiction over the United States, Britain, France and other regions. Invite Churchill and Charles de Gaulle to serve as Speakers of the Senate and House of Representatives, while they can still serve as leaders of the British and French regions. Invite the King of England as the honorary president for life of the IFPA. The Alliance adopts the form of universal suffrage within the alliance to elect members of the alliance (holding the legislative power) , allowing political parties in the western European regions of the United States to develop within the alliance. Each district has its own administrative agency and district councillors, which are elected by themselves in each district. Due to the special status of the United States in 1945, it was stipulated that the executive head of the American region would automatically serve as the president of the IFRC within 50 years, but it was promised that this rule would be abandoned after 50 years.

4. The military and intelligence agencies are fully controlled by the Central Government of the Liberty Federation, and there are no military or intelligence agencies in the major regions . This meant that the former British and French military intelligence agencies had to be integrated by Washington. The Federation established the only central bank to implement a unified currency and a unified central finance. Taxes are divided into union tax and regional tax (equivalent to national tax and local tax). Unified preparation of political and history textbooks for primary and secondary schools.

5. If Britain and France do not comply, they will refuse to restore France, stop economic aid, and threaten to empty the British and French colonies by force or even blockade the United Kingdom at sea. The United States formed its own government in Western Europe, looking for Western Europeans who recognized the Federation as leaders, and did not rule out the use of Germans . Under such pressure, Britain and France are likely to yield. If they do not surrender, they may be forced out of the communist revolution. At this time, the British and French capitalists can only kneel and beg the United States to sweep the revolutionaries with an army. If Britain and France submit, the small countries of Western Europe will also submit. After the British surrendered, they forced Australia and Canada to join the Federation. This should be easier. If the two do not comply, the British king should “request” the United States to send 500,000 troops to Australia to solve the problem.

6. After the purge of German and Japanese fascists, invite Germany and Japan to join the Self-Confederation and wait for it. Only by joining can re-industrialization be allowed, and the American market can be opened , otherwise it will only be reduced to an agricultural country for its sins. Germany and Japan must join.

7. Require the British and French colonies to join the IFRC . Claiming that joining the Federation is a brighter future than independence. Commitment to launch a new Marshall Plan for the British and French colonies to build infrastructure after the initial recovery of Western Europe. After joining the Federation, each colonial region can elect its own administrative agencies and regional councillors. Of course Article 4 must still be accepted. Promise that when the colony’s economy develops to a certain level (moderately developed), the people of that colony region can run for election to the Alliance Councilor. Prior to this , some important figures in the colonies (such as Gandhi Nehru, etc.) could be invited to become Union MPs or appointed as senior officials. If the colony does not comply, it will be annexed by force. 500,000 U.S. troops went to Africa, 500,000 U.S. troops went to the Middle East, 500,000 U.S. troops went to Southeast Asia, and 500,000 U.S. troops went to India to fight the armed independence movement. If Gandhi still wants to be non-violent and non-cooperative, he will go, but the US military controls the strategically important places, and the force can be suppressed, and the Indians will adjust their lives on their own. Such an Indian economy will definitely be very poor, but it will not be able to make a comeback. It is just a warning education for other colonies.

8. Invite Turkey, Iran, Thailand, several geographically important but non-colonial countries to join the IFRC. If they do not comply, the CIA will instigate the incident and then obtain an excuse to intervene by force. One million U.S. troops should be able to fix these three countries.

9. The above tasks were completed before 1950 with little problem. To domestic propaganda, this is the clear destiny of the United States to truly become the city on top of the mountain, the light of mankind, and the Millennium Roman’s manifest destiny. It only needs to adhere to the military priority for five more years . Article 578 requires a total of 3.5 million US troops. Keeping 1.5 million in the mainland, the Americans can still arrange 5 million troops in Europe and Japan to stop the Soviet Union . And by the end of 1949, the Soviet Union had no nuclear weapons. After 1950, with the establishment of central financial regulation and intelligence control and the formation of the capitalist global market cycle, the pressure of military repression should be eased, and the United States can gradually fulfill its commitment to disarmament and demobilization. In the long run, it should not be a big problem to keep the proportion of the armed forces of the PLA as 1/2 of the United States, Europe and Japan, and 1/2 of the colonial people.

10. Give up interference in China and the Korean peninsula. Waiting for Eastern Europe, China, and the Korean Peninsula to become red. The process was basically completed by 1950.

11. After 1950, the IFRC began a Cold War with the communists. Forging the IFRC’s internal identity during the Cold War. In the 1950s or 1960s, the Federation could choose to annex Latin America (in the model of Turkey and Iran). It is very unlikely that the communist alliance (communist alliance) formed by China, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe will win the UFJ, because the FAJ has an overwhelming advantage over the CCP in all aspects (except for the ideology that may be slightly lost).

12. Due to the strength of the IFRC, pragmatism, independence, and the ability to establish a country without relying on ideology, China may seek a decent way out of the Cold War after gaining initial industrialization from the Soviet Union. The Federation allows China to do this and open its market to China, not to engage in a color revolution in China.

13. The defeat of the Soviet Union during the 50 years of the Cold War was almost a foregone conclusion. The Federation claimed that for the well-being of all mankind, it was willing to accept the Soviet Union into the Federation, regardless of previous suspicions. In this way, Su Dong is very likely to change color, and even if he does not change color, he will lose his threat.

In the end, the world outside China and the Soviet Union will be unified by the United States, and long-term peace will be achieved. China and the Soviet Union can maintain political independence, but they will never surpass the IFRC, so they have to accept the second-rate fate. The concept of the IFPA people was formed, the American region as the core of the IAAF gained political divinity , New England and California in the United States became the unchallenged status of Beijing and Shanghai, and the top American became the de facto human leadership group. Of course, this group must open some positions to non-Americans, but anyway, the top level of the United States today must also open some positions to minorities, which is essentially a kind of problem.

You may say that the AU has too many people outside the American region to coordinate, but at least Earth Rome is indeed built . Can it be maintained for a long time? Can the Central Army, Central Intelligence Service, Central Finance, Unified Currency, Liberal Ideology and Unified Education fight against ethnic, racial, religious and traditional cultural differences? The opportunity is entirely there. This is much better than the real world in America today. The latter cannot be integrated with the UK, which is of the same species, and its national strength is almost bound to be surpassed by China. The hollowing out of the industry is irreversible, and serious ideological and ethnic divisions cannot be avoided internally.

2.1945Longzhong’s strategy against China

At the end of World War II, it was a once-in-a-millennium opportunity, and the United States did not eat anything. If the top strategies above seem too ambitious, there are also less aggressive middle strategies that are much easier to implement .

At the very least, you should swallow Canada Australia and New Zealand . These three are similar to you in so many ways, how difficult can the assimilation work be? Not even a lot of force is needed, just a political declaration of the need to unite the English-speaking nations to form a new Confederacy and give the King of England an honorary title to allow Canada, Australia and New Zealand to self-govern. Next, there is time to slowly digest and absorb it with intelligence agencies and economic power, cultural brainwashing, etc. Take advantage of the pressure of the Cold War to announce the merger of the military intelligence services at the appropriate time to allow free movement. After some time, it was announced that the states of Canada, Australia and New Zealand would be allowed to vote freely to join the United States. Then whoever joins will focus on supporting whomever financially. After decades, especially after the victory of the Cold War, when the United States is in full swing, it is not a big problem to finally localize Canada, Australia and New Zealand in politics.

If this is done, the proportion of white people in the United States will increase greatly, and the outbreak of ethnic problems can be greatly delayed or even suppressed.

In addition, Greenland should be eaten, some islands in Indonesia with few people but important geographical location should be eaten, and Singapore should have a governor. These are all things the U.S. military can do by the way when they defeat Germany and Japan. There are very few people in these places, and governance is not difficult. And then giving them citizenship in due course, paired with financial aid and intelligence infiltration, has a high chance of making it happen. Also because of the small number of people, the impact on politics is very small.

Further down, Hokkaido can try . Support the aborigines and drive the Japanese back to Honshu . If China was able to do this in the Northeast at that time, what was Hokkaido? In addition, Argentina is worth capturing. It is dominated by white people and has abundant resources. After capturing, it can transfer domestic low-end and middle-end industries. The excuse is that Argentina takes in the Nazis, and they can do it directly by force. People in Argentina, Australia, New Zealand and other places who really do not obey were forcibly relocated to Hokkaido, where there are no more people left . The economy first relies on the US military base, and a new white English-speaking group is mixed on the new land. This is a familiar thing .

The above is just a piece of cake, the more ambitious plan has been discussed in the first section. At the end of World War II, the United States was reluctant to expand its territory and to govern with the Soviet Union, and the results were terrible . The result of the fierce battle with the Soviet Union was that they both sat idly by the Chinese civil war and released Cthulhu, the head of the Republic. Then, in order to fight against the Soviet Union, we had to strongly support the revival of Europe, and in order to fight against China, we had to support the revival of Japan and support South Korea. Since then, Western Europe and East Asia have become the new economic poles. Finally, the Soviet Union was defeated. As a result, China in the east continued to accept the help of the four Japanese dragons to upgrade, while the European Union in the west took the opportunity to unite. After hesitating again and again, I decided that it is better for Russia to chase after the poor, and for the EU, especially the euro, to focus on guarding against China. The results of it? Russia and the European Union have been hit, but they can’t collapse, and Cthulhu over there has soared into the sky. . . Calm down and figure it out, I only have more than 300 million people in the basic market. In the 100 years of hegemony in the Western Hemisphere, there is no mid-to-low-end industrial base built to support the country. Neither the Western Pacific nor the European economic polarities can control themselves . The Western Pacific and Indian Oceans are so important that they have no territory (except Little Guam) and have to rely heavily on their allies , which have been bound by China economically and politically, so they can’t decide whether to choose a side. The proportion of native inadvertent ethnic groups has gotten out of control . Looking back, if we had won Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Greenland, Indonesia, some islands, Singapore, Hokkaido, and Argentina, would the situation be very different now?

How did this policy of neither expanding territory nor co-governing with the Eurasian island in the center of the world (the Soviet Union), but forcing out or even raising a group of heroes and even Cthulhu, appeared? It’s because of a stupid president (Truman), ideology in command and lack of foresight. If Roosevelt was there, it might have been a co-government with the Soviet Union, and the republic would be gone. If you don’t get carried away by ideology, especially if you don’t get fooled by the UK, you can start the road of expanding territory. Let’s start with Canada and Australia, which are nominally British (do you dare to oppose the UK?). Either way is better than reality.

Three Biggest Mistakes in U.S. Foreign Strategy After 1991

Now let me turn to my views on America’s post-Cold War foreign strategy. Of course, mistakes and even disasters are the mainstream, but if you want to choose the one with the biggest mistake , what should it be? I have thought about this issue for a long time, and now I think it is the post-Cold War policy towards Russia .

and many more? Isn’t it China policy? I used to think the same way, but now it’s changed. After all, people are not sages, and if you encounter a black swan incident, you can’t really blame the rulers too much. China’s long-term super-high-speed economic development was indeed difficult to predict in the early and mid-1990s, and it was also difficult for the Chinese themselves to predict. The difficulty here is not the problem of using a model to calculate exponential growth, but the problem of not knowing what model to use. The main reason is that China faces a lot of extremely difficult problems in its development, and it requires an amazing ability to deal with the relationship between “reform, development, and stability”. We must also take into account that there are already a large number of industrialized countries and regions in Asia where foreign trade has flourished, and we must also take into account the various serious bumps in China in the 1980s. In conclusion, it takes courage to assume that China can continue to grow rapidly without falling into some kind of trap.

The main responsibility for the wrong U.S. policy toward China is not economic (as the U.S. has justified in the previous paragraph), but political. And this is inseparable from the mistakes of policy toward Russia, which will be discussed shortly.

Why is the mistake of policy toward Russia the biggest diplomatic mistake of the United States?

1 Russia has decided to vote for the United States. Once the United States accepts and seals Russia as its king, the benefits will be huge . Later I will write an article about how I think the United States should treat Russia after the Cold War.

2 No matter what policy the United States adopts, it is almost impossible for Russia to approach the United States in terms of comprehensive strength after the disintegration of the Soviet Union . In this case, it doesn’t make much sense for the United States to continue to push Russia to death.

3 There is a high probability that Russia cannot be overwhelmed (it is really overwhelmed and you have to worry about the nuclear issue), because if it is not possible, it can always be resisted by nationalism (this is completely different from the Soviet Union! Nationalism is a major gravedigger in the Soviet Union). And the result of forcing an invincible Russia is to create a formidable enemy. Russia’s nuclear weapons, military industry, intelligence services, natural resources and geography could all spell big trouble for the United States. Later history is also true.

4 After the policy mistakes towards Russia, it will become difficult to do work with China, Europe and the Middle East . This is not only because Russia itself will consume the energy of the United States, but also because the situation and psychology of various countries will undergo changes that are not conducive to the United States.

Take diplomacy with China as an example. The United States has “expectations” of China’s politics for more than 20 years, and it feels that it will either change color or collapse. But at the end of 1991 the Soviet Union disintegrated, and something happened two years before that, after 1992, the Russian-Ukrainian economy collapsed. As soon as these three things happened , ‘maintaining stability’ was a political theme throughout the 1990s. The United States can restrict China’s economic development, create political trouble for China, and attack China militarily, but the change of country has been really difficult since those three things . Fear is the greatest power, it can overwhelm greed, hatred and dignity. Politicians should never forget this.

Take the European policy as an example. After Russia was resolutely suppressed , most of its economic, security and geographical interests were eaten by Europe. It was much harder for the United States to control Europe than it was during the Cold War . Although the United States can use Eastern Europe as a check and balance, it is very difficult to use Eastern Europe’s economic and military dual weakness. The United States can also exercise soft control over Europe, but it is inefficient and often delayed or even repeatedly calculated (especially in the most deadly affairs of China).

The analysis of the pros and cons of a friendly or hostile policy toward Russia is very obvious, but the United States has made a big mistake. Here, Brzezinski and other Russian haters are unforgivable. The so-called big chess game is originally stinky chess . Even if China does not rise strongly, the United States will have to be exhausted enough to stabilize the situation. Once the big unplanned situation of China’s rise occurs, the entire design that lacks leeway collapses .

In the future, when China faces the United States whose comprehensive strength is obviously weaker than its own, it must remember the above historical lessons .

Four 1991 Longzhong pair

I have sharply criticized America’s post-Cold War policy toward Russia. Now let me talk about what the best post-cold war US policy toward Russia should be ( taking into account Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia ) . Why does Longzhong have no China policy towards China? In fact, the policy toward Russia is partly included, but the most important reason is that, as pointed out above, from the perspective of the people at the time, it is difficult to formulate a policy toward China with a high degree of certainty because China’s development prospects are difficult to estimate . The long-term pairs in this article are all formulated according to the situation at that time , otherwise the author would not have written the title as the historical American long-term pairs.

Once the long-term Sino-Russian confrontation with Russia as the core (taking into account Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia) is implemented, no matter what China’s future development prospects are, the situation in the United States will be much better than reality.

The United States should do the following after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

1 Dissolution of NATO .

2. We will do our best to help Russia overcome the economic difficulties . Even if Russia can’t find a good economic growth point at once or its economic reform fails, it will first help Russia support it through various financial means.

3 If you really lack money to help Russia, you can join hands with Russia to sack the Middle East oil royal family.

4 Give the then EC two options. Either the European Community can maintain its current size; or the European Community can be expanded into the European Union to absorb Eastern Europe, but Russia and the United States will also join the enlarged European Union, and the name can be changed to the Western Union .

5. Invite Russia to station troops in Japan and South Korea , while retaining Russia’s military presence in Vietnam, allowing Russian troops to enter the Philippines and Singapore, and waiting for the opportunity to join forces with Russia to station troops in Myanmar and Sri Lanka. The United States and Russia jointly stationed troops in Mongolia.

6 The ” Middle East Peace Council ” was established to lead the Middle East security affairs. The organization only allows the participation of two countries in the Middle East and the United States and Russia , and strictly prohibits European participation.

7 Invite Russia to beat Iraq together, stand up for the Russian army, and strengthen the friendship between the US and Russia in the process.

8 Give Saddam two options. Either be strangled by the United States and Russia, or become a servant of the United States and Russia . If it becomes a servant army, then Saddam’s army must go first to whoever the United States and Russia will use force against in the future. Of course, the economic benefits are definitely huge. Oil can be sold at will, and the robbed benefits can also be divided into large chunks. Saddam is very likely to vote for the United States and Russia, and he will be rewarded with real money and silver after he votes .

9 The American Angsa family and the Russian upper class intermarryed , gradually turning the alliance between Angsa and the Jews at the top into a situation in which the Angsa people were in the middle, the Jews were good at writing, the Russians were martial, and they checked and balanced each other.

10 The United States took the initiative to repair and normalize relations with Iran. Explore the possibility of Iran providing a servant army for the United States and Russia . If they do not comply, the United States and Russia will reduce the price of Iranian oil exports and further widen the gap between Iraq and Iran’s living standards. At the same time, they will impose an arms embargo on Iran, but will not make any threat of force to Iran. If Iran is willing to rely on the United States and Russia to send a servant army , not only will the United States and Russia bring great benefits to the economy, but it will not rule out dethroning the status of the guardian of the Holy City in Saudi Arabia and handing over part of the control of the Holy City to Iran (the other part is left to Iraq).

11 The United States and North Korea are reconciled, and diplomacy is fully normalized. Then the United States and Russia reasoned with North Korea, saying that you now have national defense and security, but the economic gap between you and South Korea is too great, and your political security is not guaranteed. If you are willing to put your army to our use, we will make sure that no one dares to subvert you politically, you can show off your power all over the world (an opportunity that South Korea will not have), and the United States can put a lot of Injecting capital into North Korea helps your economy take off. If you don’t agree, then solve your economic problems and political security problems yourself, and Russia’s previous aid has also stopped. . . In this case, North Korea may send part of its troops to serve as servants of the United States and Russia.

12 In any third world country that discovers major oil and gas resources or other high-value natural resources, the army of the servant country under the armament of the United States and Russia supported by the intelligence system of the United States and Russia will come to the door , unless the country resolutely surrenders to the United States and Russia and surrenders the mining rights.

13 If France does not honestly want to substantially strengthen the old European Union in Europe (such as the euro), the army of the servant countries will kill the French sphere of influence in Africa.

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