Regarding the word surplus, I have realized it several times in recent years.
The first is an interview with Lin Yuan in the early years. Lin Yuan pointed out that the feature of our current domestic economy is overcapacity .
Later, when Lin Yuan said that ” business dies from competition “, I realized it again. If the threshold for a profitable business is not high enough at the beginning, everyone will definitely do it in a rush, and in the end it will suddenly become an industry with overcapacity. , No one can make money, this is not the business died of competition.
Later, when Buffett said that the business model is the most important , I realized it again. For example, why baijiu is a good business model is not only its addiction, but also the core point is that baijiu is not afraid of excess, soy sauce and vinegar are inferior One point, a good business model is definitely not a surplus business, not a business that is afraid of surplus and competition.
Now, when I look back at the development and investment in these years, I have a deeper understanding of the word “excess”. Whether it is employment, entrepreneurship, or investment, avoiding excess or avoiding those that will easily lead to production capacity in the future Excessive industries are the top priority.
In an industry that is already surplus or is about to be surplus, everyone’s energy and ability are limited, and even if you are very talented, you can’t play anything.
From the perspective of national collaborative delivery, Focus is not an excess offline media. Although offline media still have bus stops, subway platforms, high-speed rail advertisements, township walls, etc., they can be launched nationwide, but the platforms need to be discussed from city to city. Prices, high-speed rail and township coverage are too single.
From the perspective of Guangzhou, the two services of iptv integration and Internet audio-visual integration are not redundant. Guangzhou is only a new media.
At the price of seven or eight hundred yuan, the production capacity of high-end liquor is not excessive, and Yanghe’s Dream 6+ is also promising.
Looking at Tencent, with the tightening of policies and the elimination of small game factories, there are fewer and fewer game manufacturers that can produce big jobs, and the production capacity in this area is becoming more and more insufficient. Many people say that Tencent is the king and the chicken. In fact, in this environment, it is difficult for new games to develop. It is a good thing for old games. It is similar to the fact that controlling tobacco and alcohol advertising has actually contributed to the monopoly of old tobacco and alcohol brands.
Looking at Tencent’s finance, finance and social networking are highly intertwined. From this level, there is very little competition to provide similar services, and production capacity is also very limited.
The Internet advertising sector is a bit suspenseful. Tencent has always been more restrained. Although Tencent’s current social traffic is stable, there may be changes in the future.
Tencent’s investment sector is actually a sector with scarcer production capacity. It is difficult for government funds to invest in the right company. The right company needs Bole with funds like Tencent and Ali. Bole with money ( many are ordinary people with money like the government ) is too scarce. , Tencent is still a bole.
Looking at Tencent’s digital content section, Aiyou Tengmang can provide content that audiences love to watch. Tencent’s volume is okay, and there are no other highlights.
After talking about Tencent, let’s look at innovative drugs. I hold ETFs for innovative drugs.
The innovative drug sector is also a sector with scarce production capacity, which is only limited by the implementation of patent protection. If a new drug is developed and immediately copied, the patent protection is useless, and the huge initial investment of pharmaceutical companies is all for others. It’s one thing, this one can’t see through, so I buy less.
Let’s talk about Zhonggai, the current surviving Internet platforms, especially the Internet platforms that users have become dependent on and used frequently, no matter how hard they are suppressed, the surviving resources are basically scarce resources. If you can support another Ali or Tencent, there is no need to suppress it, and the group of executives from Ali and Tencent will be like most of the engineering and development. Light a cigarette and pour a drink to keep your tiny profits.
Therefore, from the perspective of excess, my current investment is actually avoiding excess production capacity, and it is difficult to attract me with excess production capacity in recent years.
From a career point of view, people should avoid excess or build a differentiated advantage like Jobs to get rid of excess in their entire life.
# Duan Yongping# #Today’s topic# #The road to value investment# $ Tencent Holdings (00700)$ $ Yanghe Shares (SZ002304)$ $ Focus Media (SZ002027)$
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