Inflation has been a thorn in the sidelines of the Federal Reserve and President Joe Biden’s administration for more than a year, but Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America, says higher prices are the worst The hour is over.
Year-on-year inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), will fall to 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023, Gapen said. This is a sharp drop from 9.1% in June and 7.7% in October this year.
“We forecast a rapid decline in core CPI inflation in 2023 as supply chain disruptions ease further, inventories recover and labor market conditions soften,” Gabon wrote in a recently published research note.
But don’t get too excited. According to Gapen, the price of lower inflation is a “modest” recession, which would mean unemployment peaking at 5.5% in 2023. The unemployment rate in October this year was 3.7%.
“Our outlook for a modest U.S. recession is based largely on weak investment and consumer spending,” he wrote. “We see weaker labor markets, higher borrowing costs, tighter credit standards and worse balance sheets And other unfavorable factors will lead consumers to reduce spending.”
In addition to Gabon, there are other Wall Street economists who believe that inflation has entered its final phase and a recession is imminent.
David Volckerz-Landau, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, agrees that Fed officials will “successfully fulfill their mission” to keep inflation under control. He said that by the end of 2023, CPI will fall back to 3.9%, and believes that a “moderate” recession will be the price Americans must pay for price stability.
“Developments since last spring have added strength to our forecast for a U.S. recession in mid-2023,” he wrote in a Nov. 28 research note.
Despite the Federal Reserve raising interest rates six times this year and President Joe Biden enacting the Inflation Reduction Act, inflation remains the most pressing concern facing most Americans. But most economists believe that inflation will fall without triggering a deep recession.
Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, cited the results of the Conference Board’s survey of consumer confidence in November as evidence that a recession may be imminent. U.S. consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in four months in November, while inflation expectations rose to their highest level since July.
“The downward trend in confidence points to a recession in 2023,” Roach told Fortune.
But unlike Gabon, Roach believes any recession will be “short and shallow” due to a tight labor market.
Of course, not all economists share this view. Mohammad El-Erian, head of Queens’ College at the University of Cambridge and former chief executive of PIMCO, has warned that inflation could “stay” at 4% , and said too many of his peers believe the most likely outcome for the U.S. economy is a “short and shallow” recession.
El-Erian called on economists to be “more open-minded” when discussing the probability and potential severity of a recession.
In his column in the Financial Times, he wrote: “They firmly believe that the recession will be ‘short and shallow’, and constantly encourage us to ‘scrutinize’ major changes. I fear this Possibly repeating the analytical and behavioral pitfalls of last year’s disastrous inflation expectations, we’re still not out of whack.” (Fortune Chinese Network)
Translator: Liu Jinlong
Reviewer: Wang Hao
Inflation has been a thorn in the side of the Federal Reserve and the Biden administration for more than a year, but Bank of America’s chief US economist Michael Gapen says the worst of the price hikes are over.
Gapen argues that year-on-year inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), will sink to just 3.2% by the fourth quarter of next year. That’s quite the drop from June’s 9.1% peak, and October’s 7.7% figure .
“We expect core CPI inflation to moderate rapidly over the course of 2023 as supply-chain disruptions ease further, inventories recover, and labor market conditions weaken,” Gapen wrote in a recent research note.
But don’t get too excited. Gapen also believes that it will take a “mild” recession for inflation to fall, which means the unemployment rate will peak at 5.5% next year compared to 3.7% in October.
“Our outlook for a mild recession in the US economy is driven by weaker investment and consumer spending,” he wrote. “We think the headwinds of a weaker labor market, higher borrowing costs, tighter credit standards, and weaker balance sheets will lead consumers to reduce spending.”
Gapen isn’t the only Wall Street economist arguing that inflation is on its last legs and a recession is coming.
Deutsche Bank chief economist David Folkerts-Landau also believes Fed officials will “succeed in their mission” of taming inflation. He sees CPI falling to 3.9% by the end of 2023 and argues a “moderate” recession will be the price Americans must pay for stable prices.
“Our expectation for a recession in the US by mid-2023 has strengthened on the back of developments since early last spring,” he wrote in a November 28 research note.
Despite the Fed’s six interest rate hikes this year, and President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, inflation continues to be the most pressing issue for a majority of Americans. But most economists believe it will fall without a severe recession.
Jeffrey Roach, LPL Financial’s chief economist, pointed to the Conference Board’s November consumer confidence survey as evidence that a recession could be on the way. US consumer confidence declined to a four-month low in November, while inflation expectations rose to the highest level July.
“The weakening trend in confidence foreshadows a recession which will likely happen in the coming year,” Roach told Fortune.
But like Gapen, Roach believes that any recession will be “short and shallow” due to the tight labor market.
Of course, not every economist agrees. Mohamed El-Erian, president of Queens’ College at the University of Cambridge and the former CEO of PIMCO, has warned that inflation could get “stuck” at 4% and argued that too many of his peers are convinced that a “short and shallow” recession is the most likely outcome for the US economy.
El-Erian called on economists to be “more open-minded” when discussing the probability of a recession and its potential severity.
“[T]hey are confidently asserting that this recession will be ‘short and shallow’ and are encouraging us again to ‘look through’ a major development,” he wrote in a Financial Times op-ed. “I worry that this could constitute a repeat of the analytical and behavioral traps that featured in last year’s ill-fated inflation call and whose consequences we are yet to put behind us.”
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