Last week, we cleared Vanke, most of them added Maotai, and bought a small amount of Tongce Medical. It is not ruled out that there is a possibility of clearing Gree in the future.
Is there something wrong with Vanke and Gree? No problem, my opinion of them still hasn’t changed. The competitive advantages of Vanke and Gree in their own industries have not changed, and I believe they will continue to be excellent, just like the Fuyao Glass I sold before.
Looking back on his investment operations in the past ten years, there are Vanke, Gree, Haier, Maotai, Fuyao, Wuliangye, Ejiao, Focus, Boss, Weixing, Xingye, Minsheng, etc. Some of them may not be remembered, but they are basically companies that everyone is familiar with. These companies are constantly switching, although not as frequent as short-term operations, but the basic holding time is only 2-3 years, the longest should be Fuyao and Gree, which took about 5 years. Compared with short-term speculation, it is only fifty steps to laugh a hundred steps.
In the first few years, I made several times of profits, because these companies were basically rising in those years, and they bought what they bought, and they mistaken luck for strength. In the next few years, some stocks rose, some stocks fell, and basically no money was made.
If all the stocks mentioned above had been bought ten years ago and held on, the investment yield should have been better than now (I didn’t count, it should have been better). If we focus on Maotai and companies like Wuliangye have been taking it for ten years, it would be much better.
So why should I switch back and forth? For example, I once bought Maotai when it was over 100, and sold it when it rose to more than 300. I feel that it has risen so much at once, and it is a bit high, and it should be adjusted for a year or two. Wouldn’t it be a waste of time to put money on Maotai in the past two years! Wouldn’t it be better to go to other companies with low valuations to make a fortune? So I switched to another company. When the company goes up, it will be replaced with a more undervalued one that has not yet gone up, and so on. I feel that this is the only way to maximize profits. I feel that through my own operations, I can eat the best period of market growth for most companies, and I feel that I can beat the market.
It’s just that compared to short-term people, I also have a difference. First of all, I traded for these companies that I am familiar with and have been researching for many years. The quality of the companies is also good. Second, I don’t want to take a short-term uptrend, but buy undervalued companies, and after a few years of rising, I will replace an undervalued company. So my holding time is generally not very short, unless I just buy it and go up.
The stock market makes money, one is the company’s money, and the other is the market’s money. But even if a good company is held for a long time, the company’s performance continues to grow, and its stock price continues to rise, it has fluctuations. It may rise for a few years, then take a break for a few years, or even make a major adjustment. If you keep holding it, you will feel that the few years of rest are a waste of time, and maybe you will lose money, which is a bit slow. If you can operate it occasionally and avoid the rest of the few years to switch to other good companies that have not risen, you may be able to achieve better returns. Not only the company’s money, but also the market’s money.
In the first few years, the effect was really good. For example, after a wave of Maotai’s rise, I think Gree’s valuation is lower. After changing Gree, Gree has also risen. Others have also changed, and they have also risen. Because in those years these companies almost doubled several times. In fact, if I don’t change it, the effect will not be bad, or even better. But in the following years, I kept changing to other more undervalued ones. The problem is that the undervalued ones did not rise but fell, while the better companies with higher valuations continued to rise.
In the short term, there may not be much difference between the cheaper 6 branch and the slightly more expensive 9 branch. But the longer the time, the value created by the two will be far apart. The price will eventually match the value, so in the long run, the better companies will have more upward momentum.
Because of my greed, I feel that I can grasp the rhythm and that I can challenge the market with intelligence. Because the market does not seem to be very powerful, everyone at first thought that they could beat the market and that there were rules to follow, so they were obsessed with studying the rules of market fluctuations.
At the beginning, of course, it was to engage in short-term technology, fast in and out, trying to grasp the various rising small bands in the market. This is the most efficient and the fastest money. I did the same at the beginning. I studied the technology for 3 years, operated it frequently, and ended up losing money. Fortunately, there was no money at that time, so there was not much loss. After reading Buffett’s letter to shareholders, I recognized value investing. Because of its logical principle, I think it is the most essential thing and the least problematic.
But because of my greed, I feel that I can innovate, invest in excellent companies, make money from the company, and do some proper operations to make money in the market. In fact, what is a good company? What is the best business? I already understood. Why not take a really good company? The essence is still because of greed, I feel that I can earn faster and earn more.
This strategy has gone on for ten years. The final result told me that I did not make money in the market, but did more and made less. I think if the next ten years, I will continue to follow the previous strategy. Can you make more money than simply owning the best companies? I don’t think so, and there is a high probability that you will still earn less. And do more, more tired, the heart may occasionally beat faster, and the number of insomnia will be more. What if in the future? The gap will get bigger and bigger. And because of a faster heartbeat and more insomnia, it could be a decade less. And investing is my life’s route, so doing it this way is not worth it.
In fact, on the way of riding the Long March, I occasionally thought about these questions. But at that time, there were only occasional flashes of thought, and there was no systematic thinking. After all, after taking the route for ten years, due to inertia, it is not so easy to deny yourself. After the Long March, I returned to Changsha. I read books and played bonsai at home. My mind was still in a state of tranquility. I thought slowly, reviewed the road I have traveled over the years, and made a profound summary and review.
More than ten years ago, when I had nothing and my life was at the darkest moment, I spent three years thinking about it in Changsha and determined the course of my life, until now. This time, I returned to Changsha to reflect and summarize, not only investment, but also many other things. For example, before, I have always been a dedicated person, ignorant of personnel, arrogant and arrogant. As I experienced more and more personnel problems, I had a lot of doubts in my heart, and I thought more about people, but there was no systematic summary. Now, it is also in the summary. When a person reaches middle age, it is the time to connect the past and usher in the future. There is a certain experience and there are some gains and losses, but there is still a long way to go. At this time, do some in-depth thinking and summary, make your thinking clearer, do the core things step by step, and do effective operations to get better and better.
In fact, every stage of life is very critical. If you have no direction when you are young, you will be messing around everywhere, and you will reach middle age in a flash. In middle age, if you still have nothing, in fact, most people do not have the courage to start from scratch. Continue to live without knowing what to do, and when you are 40-50 years old, there is basically no hope. People are not afraid of not working hard, they are afraid of doing wrong things all the time. If at every stage of life, you can clearly know what to do, do the right things, and do the core things, your life will get better and better.
Doing the right thing is the same as buying the right stock. You may not see the effect in the short term, but over time, the result will be completely different.
(About Vanke, the cost of holding a position is 25.2 yuan, selling it at 18 yuan, holding it for about 2 and a half years, and losing 28.6%
About Maotai: I will not talk about the excellence of Maotai. During my holding of Maotai, I hardly wrote articles about Maotai, because the company itself felt that there was nothing to write about. Everyone knows that, but everyone may think that the valuation is too high. Moutai’s profit this year is likely to be more than 60 billion yuan. When I bought it, Maotai’s market value was 2.2 trillion yuan, and its valuation was 36 times by the end of the year. Is it expensive? I think it’s reasonable. Maybe everyone thinks 500 Moutai is cheap, but when Moutai rose from more than 100 to 5-600, the valuation is similar to now, including the Maotai I bought near 1100 before, the valuation is also similar. Because Moutai has been growing, I don’t think the room for Moutai’s growth in the next ten years will be worse than the past ten years. Most people agree that long-term holding of Maotai can make money, but is the rate of return high? I also don’t expect much return on this investment, so I can live with it. Maybe the reason why many people are afraid to buy Maotai is because they feel that they can achieve better income, and if they can, of course it will be better. It’s just that I think that if I continue with the previous investment method, the rate of return in the next ten years will not necessarily exceed that of Moutai.
About Tongce Medical: The position is not large, I will write later when I have time)
Note: The above is just personal investment sharing and does not constitute investment advice. Everyone’s thinking is different, the situation is different, don’t copy homework. Remember!
2022.6.8 Liang Xiaoyongkang wrote in Changsha
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