1/ After Blackrock, the largest asset management group in the United States, officially applied to the US Securities Regulatory Commission for a Bitcoin ETF on June 15, 2023, the price of btc has approached 31,000 US dollars. This scene is reminiscent of 2019, at the end of June, when the price of btc returned to $10,000. It has tripled in four years, and this return is not too bad. It should kill 99.9% of fund managers in the same period.
2/ On June 18, 2022, the price of BTC once dropped to $18250. The famous economist and Nobel laureate Mr. Krugman jumped out on Twitter on time, gloating and saying, “Fellows, This is so touching” (he also jumped out once before when Bitcoin fell to $3,000 in late 2018). In the year after Mr. Ke’s speech, Bitcoin rose by 69%. It’s really touching.
3/ But many people who entered the industry very early do not have much btc in their hands. The reason is also very simple. Most people want higher short-term returns and adopt various subjective and fancy strategies, but the essence is to increase leverage and gamble without leaving any room for themselves. In this way, sooner or later, in the inevitable but unpredictable large fluctuations of the market, they will be forced to cut their meat and close their positions.
4/ Some institutional funds were almost liquidated in the crash in March 2020, but they continued to gamble, and later earned more, so they insisted on this aggressive strategy, so that in the crash in June 2022 , was completely cleared without any suspense.
5/ Players lacking redundancy, once hit by an unexpected event, may quickly encounter a chain reaction. The collapse of a subsystem will lead to a series of collapses in higher-level systems, which will escalate into a huge disaster in a short period of time, or even lead to total destruction of the entire system. But after being extinct, it is difficult for these people’s experience and lessons to be truly passed on to future generations, which will inevitably lead to the next wave of newcomers who do not know the heights of the world and repeat their experiences.
6/ Many people cannot bear the price fluctuation of btc, but this fluctuation actually reflects more changes in the growth and contraction of US dollar credit. The Federal Reserve itself cannot accurately predict changes in inflation and employment, let alone the adjustment of its own monetary policy. All the things in the world, it is impossible to “need both… and”. It is impossible to “small the price retracement when the market is bad and good returns when the market is rising”, and it is impossible to “make the horse run and the horse not eat grass”. If the customer asks you this way, leave He, sooner or later he will fall into the arms of crooks like Madoff; if the boss asks you this way, he just wants to take the credit for the results and use you as a scapegoat for the problems.
7/ People often mistake something that has a temporary premium due to short-term constraints as a scarce asset. After the Russian-Ukrainian war broke out, the spot price of crude oil was once hyped to $120 a barrel. Sit down calmly and think about it, and you will know that high oil prices will curb demand, and at the same time increase mining activities and supply, and crude oil prices will eventually come down. But no matter how many new mining machines you buy to mine, the supply of BTC will not increase, and it will be halved every four years on schedule. This is one of the most essential differences between it and bulk commodities/precious metals.
8/ In March 2023, when Silicon Valley Bank was on the verge of bankruptcy and hundreds of billions of depositors’ deposits were at risk of being sheared, the Federal Reserve took decisive action and magically conjured tens of billions of dollars in emergency loans to save depositors. Btc doesn’t care at all, it still silently produces a block every ten minutes, and still silently adjusts the difficulty coefficient every two weeks. Only then did people suddenly realize that what is a real scarce asset and what is a game that can be issued at will by a few people.
9/ As long as you firmly grasp the scarce resources, don’t care how others roll, let them squander the real scarce resources, and replace and compete for the de facto non-scarce resources at a high premium.
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