$Watson Bio (SZ300142)$ Regarding the short-term trend of Watson, technically I am not as good as others, just based on the books I have read before, the market experience and the sense of the market over the years.
However, I think that no matter how bad the market is, Watson’s downside is only 20-30% at most, which is the limit of suppression. After all, A shares are not Hong Kong stocks. There is no such thing as 10 shares merged into 1 share, and then fell by 90%. The market liquidity is different, the mechanism is different, and the rules are different.
So let’s talk about Watson’s upward flexibility. The market’s valuation of biopharmaceutical stocks is different from the low valuation of banks and consumer stocks. The reasonable valuation is 30-60 times.
It is undeniable that Watson has strong certainty and huge room for growth. The price of 13 was 4.5 million last year, and 3.73 million in the first half of the year. It is estimated that it should be 7 million for the whole year, with a revenue of 3.7 billion. The price of 2 sells 5 million to 6 million, and the revenue is 1.5 billion. In addition, the profit is expected to be about 1.5 billion this year. Investing is investing in the future, and A-shares are even more speculative. So what about next year? The company is actively expanding the African market, with Morocco as its base, and domestic production and sales are in short supply. Next year, the price of 2 will break out, with full production and full sales of 20-30 million units. According to the minimum measurement, 5 billion, plus others, about 11-12 billion in revenue, and about 3 billion in non-profit. Don’t deny that biomedicine is extremely flexible, and it takes a long time to pay upfront, but the global market is huge, who can predict the future?
The company’s new crown mRNA vaccine has been submitted to the Food and Drug Administration and Indonesia for approval. The nine-valent HPV vaccine is in Phase III clinical work. The quadrivalent influenza vaccine and MCV4 are in Phase III clinical trials. The company’s new crown variant mRNA vaccine in cooperation with Blue Magpie is in Phase I and II clinical trials; the shingles mRNA vaccine in cooperation with Aibo Bio, the RSV mRNA vaccine and influenza mRNA vaccine in cooperation with Blue Magpie, and the universal influenza in cooperation with Sino siRNA drugs are in preclinical research.
The most uncertain thing about Watson, I think, is the management. There are too many operations and lack of major shareholders, causing unpredictable risks. Secondly, there are unpredictable risks in the market, sales are less than expected, R&D is less than expected, mR is not ideal, the new crown disappears, and it fails to get approval. On the other hand, mR is a big Easter egg, and its valuation is unpredictable.
Therefore, I think that it is more risky to be short and short at this time than to be long and long. The downside is 20-30%, and the upside is more than 300% in the next three years.
Entering the Jiacang area, but the National Day holiday is imminent, there are many uncertain factors, so be cautious. It represents a personal opinion only and does not constitute investment advice.
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