What do you think of the National Bureau of Statistics’ statement that “once the epidemic is effectively controlled, normal life order is restored, and pent-up consumer demand will be released quickly”?

I have done a lot of research on the impact of the epidemic and consumption, and the conclusions are probably as follows:

1. The suppression of local consumption by the epidemic will last twice to three times as long as the epidemic itself.

The above data is made using the Difference in Difference method, which uses the regional consumption payment data of a certain payment platform. This data does not include the payment through the e-commerce platform.

Each point represents each day after the epidemic, and the lower each point is compared to the horizontal red line, the more consumption in the region has declined due to the epidemic.

The data in the above picture uses the epidemic situation before December 2021, that is, the epidemic situation before Omicron entered China. During this period, the epidemic situation in most areas can be cleared within one month. Even the epidemic situation in Xi’an, Shijiazhuang, and Urumqi will only last for one and a half months. After that, there is a low risk in the whole region. In theory, there is no policy impact. .

However, as can be seen from the figure, it takes a very long time for consumption to recover, and there is no statistically significant difference between 90 days and the normal level before the epidemic.

That is to say, judging from the previous epidemic situation in Omicron, the time for consumer demand to be suppressed is at least two to three times as long as the duration of the epidemic itself . The reason is very simple. Consumers’ income has decreased, and a large number of business formats have died. These will take time to repair, and it is impossible to recover as soon as the epidemic is under control.

And what is the impact of the epidemic after Omicron on local consumption?

Take Changchun as an example. His situation is like this-if it was 1 before the epidemic, the consumption during the entire epidemic was below 0.05. As of May 17, the consumption in Changchun had recovered to 40% of the pre-epidemic level.

So when did the society in Changchun clear? April 11. More than a month after the social face was cleared, it only recovered 40%, which was slower than the previous recovery . Therefore, even if the epidemic is effectively controlled, consumer demand will obviously not be released soon.

2. Before the Omicron variant, the epidemic had no effect on the e-commerce data of each region.

In the figure above, we used the monthly sales of an e-commerce company in each city to calculate, using the epidemic situation in December 2021 and before.

It can be seen that there is no statistically significant difference between the data of each month, from -2 (two months before the epidemic) to 0 (the current month of the epidemic) to 2 (two months after the epidemic). Therefore, the epidemic will not affect e-commerce consumption. Some people think that people can’t go shopping offline to buy things, they will go to e-commerce to buy things, so e-commerce consumption will increase – this view is wrong.

3. After the Omicron variant, the epidemic has a significant impact on the e-commerce data of each region.

In the figure above, we use the same e-commerce platform data to analyze the epidemic after January 2022.

It can be seen that in the month of the epidemic and one month before the epidemic, the consumption of e-commerce will suffer nearly 10%, a statistically significant loss. And two months after the outbreak, there has been no statistically above-normal recovery.

The most interesting thing here is the point of -1, which is one month before the epidemic, when there was no epidemic in this city, the loss of e-commerce consumption began . why? Because Omicoron is passed down from person to person, those cities adjacent to the epidemic area will cut off the logistics to and from the epidemic area first, fearing that the epidemic in this area will spread, and they will be forced to close the city in one case.

So before there was an epidemic in this area, e-commerce began to lose, and continued to lose in the month of the epidemic, and it did not recover after the epidemic.

in conclusion:

“Once the epidemic is effectively controlled, the normal life order is restored, and the pent-up consumer demand will be released quickly.” This sentence is inconsistent with reality.

The reality is that the depressed time of local consumption was two to three times the duration of the epidemic itself before Omicron. After Omicron, the suppression time will last longer.

The e-commerce platform was not affected by the epidemic before Omicron, but it also began to suffer losses after the phenomenon of human-to-human transmission brought by Omicron. This loss will even occur in advance of the epidemic itself, and after the epidemic No statistically significant recovery was observed either.

Source: Zhihu www.zhihu.com

Author: chenqin

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Further reading:

The National Bureau of Statistics stated that “there are more favorable factors for expanding domestic demand in the next stage”. What information should be paid attention to?

The National Bureau of Statistics said that the economy will maintain good growth in the second quarter. What does this mean?

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