2022 is an extremely turbulent year for China’s semiconductor industry. Old problems have not yet been resolved, and new challenges have already arrived. The shortage of cores has just been alleviated, and chip manufacturers have been cold in the capital market. Coupled with repeated epidemics and heavy sanctions from the United States, the future of Chinese semiconductor companies seems to be uncertain.
“No one knows how to deal with it. We can only be friends with time.” An industry analyst gave a slightly pessimistic answer when talking with Leifeng.com about how Chinese semiconductor companies should deal with the heavy sanctions from the United States. The answer also applies to the development attitude that Chinese semiconductor companies should hold for a long time to come.
But perhaps, we can also be a little more optimistic on this basis. In the last week of 2022, at the 2022 China (Shenzhen) Integrated Circuit Summit Forum, academician of the International Eurasian Academy of Sciences, vice chairman of the China Semiconductor Industry Association, chairman of the IC Design Branch of the China Semiconductor Industry Association, and a major national science and technology project of nuclear high-tech Wei Shaojun, chief technical engineer, and Li Ke, vice president of CCID Consulting of the CCID Research Institute of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and Li Ke, a national registered consultant, both made predictions about the future of China’s semiconductors. Among them, Wei Shaojun said that we should recognize the situation and strengthen our confidence.
The United States will further increase containment efforts, and China will re-examine the development of semiconductors
At this forum, Wei Shaojun made predictions about the development of China’s semiconductor industry in the coming year. He believes that there are five major trends in the development of China’s semiconductors in the coming year:
First, the United States’ containment of China’s semiconductor industry is moving towards a unilateral semi-decoupling, which will further increase its containment efforts against China.
Judging from the foreign speeches of the US National Security Council and its corresponding think tank members, the US is very determined to contain China’s semiconductor development. American AI strategist, Google founder and CEO Schmidt said that the United States needs to ensure that it is at least two generations ahead of China in semiconductors, and it needs to jointly contend with Japan, South Korea and Europe. Masini, who is in charge of China policy, also said that maintaining the lead in semiconductors is artificial intelligence The real foundation of leadership. What followed was a series of policies introduced by the United States on October 7, and the blueprint for these policies happened to come from CSET, the security and information center created by Masini.
Second, the new central government will re-examine China’s semiconductor development ideas, update the organizational form, and customize new development strategies and measures.
By 2023, the Outline for the Development of the Integrated Circuit Industry issued by the State Council in 2014 has been ten years old. In the past ten years, many achievements have been made, but many problems have also been exposed, and some new adjustments are bound to be required. For example, in the future, we should not continue to focus on making up for shortcomings, but should strengthen our strengths.
“Re-examine the development ideas of semiconductors and formulate new development strategies and measures, which will be extended to 2035 or even further into the future.” Wei Shaojun said.
Third, the focus of technological development will shift from advanced technology to chip research and development that is less sensitive to technology and EDA tools, focusing on improving the PPA of mature technology.
This is because the development of semiconductors has entered a new stage. New devices, new materials, and new processes are the focus of future development. At the same time, the innovation of chip architecture and the importance of micro-nano integration are also increasing, and my country has achieved technological breakthroughs in many fields. . For example, YMTC’s Xtacking technology has innovated in 3D hybrid bonding. It was not favored by the industry at first, but now it is recognized by international major manufacturers. In addition, the near-storage computing technology developed in China can achieve two orders of magnitude energy efficiency of the mainstream technology used in the world only with mature technology.
Fourth, a batch of innovative products and solutions will be launched soon, breaking the containment and embargo. The application of 5G continues to deepen to mMTC and uRLLC, playing a role in smart agriculture and smart cities.
Fifth, the cultivation of integrated circuit talents will gather more practical talents. The talent training plan for outstanding engineers in integrated circuit applications will be fully rolled out, but the integration of production and education will become the biggest challenge for the cultivation of integrated circuit talents in colleges and universities.
The growth rate of the global semiconductor market has declined, and China’s semiconductor imports and exports have experienced negative growth for the first time
Li Ke made predictions and prospects for semiconductor trends in 2023 through quantitative analysis of the market and qualitative analysis of the industry.
He said that in the past 20 years, 2022 is the year with the fastest decline in the growth rate of global semiconductors, and it is predicted that there will be negative growth next year. The WSTS agency even gave a growth rate of -4.1%. “It was originally expected to break through the US$600 billion mark next year, but now it seems that we will have to wait a few more years.” Li Ke said.
This is reflected in the entire market. Whether it is the growth rate of the market share of advanced technology or the growth rate of the world’s top 20 semiconductor manufacturers, they are not optimistic enough.
It took 10 years for the process below 10nm to reach a market share of 5.9%, while the market share for the 10nm to 18nm process reached 15% in the same time period, and the market share growth rate of the process was greatly reduced. In addition, whether it is Intel, or Hynix and Samsung, almost all companies that develop advanced processes will have negative growth in 2022, while European companies such as Infineon and NXP will still maintain performance growth.
The global semiconductor industry will have mixed results in 2022, especially for China’s semiconductor industry. Observing China’s semiconductor import and export data, the import and export of China’s semiconductor industry experienced negative growth in the first 11 months, which is the first negative growth in Chinese history.
Li Ke said that in the past 30 years, even in the Asian financial crisis in 1998 and the subprime mortgage crisis around 2008, the import and export of China’s integrated circuit industry has maintained growth. “Is China getting stronger? Or is the overall market environment getting worse? Our analysis is not clear, and this is worth thinking about and discussing.” Li Ke said.
In addition, Li Ke also gave five qualitative development trends:
First, the government will intervene more and more in the development of integrated circuits in the future;
Second, countries around the world will vigorously subsidize the development of the semiconductor industry;
Third, Moore’s Law is approaching the physical limit, and we will seek breakthroughs from more directions;
Fourth, the global semiconductor business model may enter a new round of industrial integration;
Fifth, the semiconductor industry is still one of the most promising tracks in the national economy.
“The more we are in such a situation, the more we have to take control of ourselves.” Li Ke finally said.
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