The wave of decline at the end of October was far beyond everyone’s imagination. Similarly, the continuous rise in this wave that began in November was far beyond expectations. Everyone was puzzled and puzzled. Maybe this is right. This is the effect. When you can’t see the trend clearly, the position has been built unknowingly, and the only thing left in the future is to keep rising and keep rising, that is, the main rising wave has already started.
Let’s review the technical commonalities of the past few white chicken stocks when they started the main uptrend:
1. Solid bottom
The stock price has been fluctuating at the bottom and low for a long time, and the time is generally maintained for more than one year. (easy to get cheap chips)
2. Continue to rise
In the initial stage of the main rising wave, the daily limit will rarely be pulled, but it will continue to rise, and there will rarely be a big drop and callback. (Don’t give others a chance to get on the bus cheaply)
3. Heavy volume breakthrough
After the main rally starts, it directly breaks through the former bottom area and does not turn back. The breakthrough is that besides the price, the more important thing is that the trading volume also hits a new high. Looking at the three chickens chart, you will understand that the K-line in November has confirmed the signal of the main rise.
Now it has basically been confirmed that the wave of decline at the end of October was a violent washout. Unfortunately, I made a T at the bottom of October. Looking back, I only ate a little meat. There is no way to be the main promotion. Everyone can judge, it will definitely give you a big pullback, the technical side can be so fascinating and so annoying at times.
The above is from a technical analysis, confirming that the main rise of the white chicken stock may have arrived. If it is analyzed from the fundamentals, it is still three major factors, supply, demand and the broader market.
1. Supply
The sharp drop in the supply side of ancestors caused by bird flu is the main reason for the rise of this wave of white chicken stocks, and the divergence of the gains is also natural. Minhe shares rose weakly, and the downstream chicken Duanxiantan shares were the weakest.
From this year to September, the ancestral generation update is only 680,000, and the 10 introductions are 0. The next November and December are basically hopeless. The lowest expectation of the securities company’s research report is more than 800,000 ancestral generation updates. Now it seems that it can reach 80 Mando is already very difficult. It can be said that this time the dating is seriously beyond expectations, so this wave of rising upstream is logical.
Today’s updated data shows that another state in the United States has fallen. More than 30,000 poultry are affected in a farm on Mississippi 5. The only state next to Alabama, which produces uninfected poultry, personally estimates that it will not be able to keep it before the end of the year. The strongest wave of bird flu in history is far from its worst.
2. Demand
The price of pigs bottomed out in April, and the stock price of Baiji stock also bottomed out in April, but then the price of pigs doubled, but chicken stocks did not enjoy the east wind of pig prices. The severe crackdown forced the price of pigs to hover at the officially recognized price of 26 yuan, and the share price of chicken stocks also adjusted several times.
The supply side has begun to let chicken stocks take off, and now the demand side pig prices are still consolidating, but the epidemic is so serious and the consumption is so poor, the pig price will not go down to 26 yuan. As the consumption increases, the pig price starts to rebound retaliatory in the peak season. That is to say, the resonance of supply and demand has formed as I said before. The main rise of this wave of white chicken stocks may far exceed expectations.
3. Big market
Now the broader market has also fallen for 2 years, and it is confirmed at the bottom area. Once it starts to rebound or starts to go bullish, it will superimpose both supply and demand, and white chicken stocks can’t imagine it.
The main rise of the white chicken stock may have really arrived ahead of schedule, and the most important thing now is to stay still and wait for the most plump chicken.
After the main rise is confirmed, I will analyze the characteristics of the most violent stage of the main rise and the sign of the peak of the main rise from a technical point of view. I have accurately predicted the bottom of the white chicken stock, and the judgment of the main rise can be verified immediately. Now What needs to be considered is when to get it, that is to say, it is time to start preparing for when to retreat.
$ Minhe Shares (SZ002234)$ $ Shengnong Development (SZ002299)$ $ Yisheng Shares (SZ002458)$
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