$Chengdu Bank (SH601838)$ As my second-heavy holding stock, I held it for only one year, long-term + band + T + dividends, and achieved good returns. Originally, according to the plan, it was no problem to hold for two or three years for a long time, but in the near future, it has gradually reduced Chengdu, and increased its positions in Hangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Jiangyin.
Originally, this is a very normal rebalancing, and it is also strongly optimistic about bank stocks and rebalancing bank stocks, but I did not expect it to cause such a big reversal. Today I take the time to explain to you the various reasons for my adjustment.
1. Future growth:
As everyone knows, my strategy for bank stocks is a “growth bank stock” strategy, which focuses on growth. From the four positions I have held in the early stage, the long-term growth is the best in Hangzhou, Zhangjiagang and Jiangyin, followed by Chengdu. This can be seen from the statements in the past few years. The three hidden profits in the Yangtze River Delta are very large. The growth rate of the provision pool in recent years is like a rocket, and the provision pool is particularly hidden. Therefore, the high growth of the three of them in the future, on the one hand, can be driven by normal revenue (10~15%), and on the other hand, the profit can be hidden less (it can also bring 10~15% per year for many years), so It is foreseeable that in the future, Hangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Jiangyin can still maintain a growth rate of 25-30% for many years. Once Chengdu Bank is converted into shares, it is likely that the growth rate will drop to about 20%, and it is not ruled out that it will fall further to less than 20%.
So taking advantage of the good growth of Bank of Chengdu this year and planning for the next few years, I think this is the most important idea.
2. Do T
In recent years, although the bank stocks have been heavily held and they are long-term thinking, the bank stocks will also be switched according to the ups and downs. For example, in the future, Hangzhou’s stock price will overtake Chengdu. If I change it back, the tens of thousands of shares will be real. A difference of hundreds of thousands came out. In the past, Hangzhou~Nanjing~Chengdu and the like also had such transactions.
3. Transaction
Fundamental analysis of stocks is one thing, but it is another when it comes to trading. It is undeniable that the impact of the epidemic in the Yangtze River Delta in the first half of this year, especially Zhangjiagang City in Suzhou and Jiangyin City in Wuxi, was stagnant for almost a month and a half, so short-term overdue loans rebounded, but Zhangjiagang Jiangyin’s risk control has changed? Has the long-term development foundation of these two cities changed? If nothing has changed, isn’t the stock price fall due to short-term changes caused by the epidemic a good time to rebalance positions?
In drought, boats can be invested, and water can be invested in cars. Investment operations must have reverse thinking.
4. Valuation
PB: Hang: 1.09; Zhang: 0.81; Jiang: 0.73, Cheng: 1.22
Bank stocks are usually overvalued according to PB. Obviously, it is completely reasonable to adjust positions according to PB. In addition to the new shares of Chengdu Bank, the pb of China Merchants Ningbo has been so high for a long time.
PE: Hang: 7.66; Zhang: 6.2; Jiang: 5.9; manual calculation)
PE is related to growth, only long-term high growth can enjoy higher pe , otherwise it can only be lower. Therefore, combined with the deterministic analysis of the previous growth, at least Zhangjiagang Jiangyin is completely reasonable. I think Hangzhou Bank is more like the former Ningbo Bank, so I think it is reasonable for this pe to be higher. Normally, it should be above 10.
Fifth, the hidden worries of Chengdu Bank
In the first half of the year, Zhangjiagang and Jiangyin, an excellent bank stock, will be affected by the epidemic. In the second half of the year, the epidemic in Chengdu will not be small. The delivery time of our Chengdu partners is generally about a month late, so the short-term overdue probability of the third quarterly report of Chengdu Bank will increase. It is no different from Zhangjiagang Jiangyin . This hidden danger exists.
Another, if you are interested, you can look at the changes in the nuclear charging of Bank of Chengdu in the past two consecutive years. It has been in a state of rapid consumption , high revenue and high growth, which will inevitably lead to high consumption of nuclear charging. The major shareholders of Chengdu Bank are three. At the end of the quarter, it is better to suffer a loss and also get stuck and transfer shares , which is essentially good and supports the development of listed companies. But if you are interested, you can take a look at the history of major shareholders who have suffered losses but also helped listed companies:
A typical example is Huaxia, where major shareholders subscribe for shares at a premium of 200%, which is double the price in the secondary market. Other major shareholders participating at high prices include Guiyang, Pudong Development and so on. As you can see, why do so many major shareholders want to help? You can take a look at the above examples. They are all relatively poor bank stocks. They have encountered difficulties in their operations.
Therefore, in nine out of ten cases, the nuclear recharge is in a hurry and the stock is transferred urgently, so that this problem cannot be seen in the third quarterly report. This should be a question for Chengdu, which seems to be excellent in all aspects, rather than only looking at the problem from the good side.
Of course, the above problems may not necessarily exist. After the third quarterly report, if the difference between my position and exchange rate is reversed, it may be possible to exchange it back.
Six: Outlook
In general, it is a position adjustment, focusing on the outstanding Yangtze River Delta bank stocks that have not risen much this year.
Still optimistic about the future of bank stocks!
Regarding the effect of rebalancing, this time, the part of Hangzhou Bank that Chengdu Bank changed for 1.15 shares. As long as this value becomes smaller in the future, it will be a success. If it becomes larger, it means that the exchange is at a loss. That is to say, even if Chengdu goes up by 30% in the future, and my others go up by 31%, I think it will be a success.
Finally, let me show you the $Hangzhou Bank (SH600926)$ held by all my accounts. ![[加油]](http://js.xueqiu.com/ugc/images/face/emoji_05_struggle.png "[come on]"){kind=small}
Summary of Hangzhou Bank ordinary accounts, as shown above 
Hangzhou Bank credit account position
@李FATPang’s investment @digger @today’s topic $Zhangjiagang trip (SZ002839)$
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