Why kill the white horse?

183d0e03d8f140e03fe3e6ce.jpg

It is difficult to describe today’s market as rising or falling, because the CSI 1000, which has risen the best, rose 0.96%, the China Securities 2000 rose 0.95%, and the Shanghai 50, which fell the most, continued to fall by 1.23%.

183d0f28bae1433e3fdf7007.png

Today, IT equipment, software services, medicine, food and beverages led the gains in the industry sector, while coal, brewing, real estate, chemical fiber, oil, and banks led the decline. Individual stocks continued to extend yesterday’s strength, with 65.03% of individual stocks advancing with a median of 0.72%.

Beishang funds continued to sell 8.035 billion net today. Nine stocks including China Merchants Bank, Ping An Bank, China Everbright Bank, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Satellite Chemical, National Ceramic Materials, Nano Micro Technology, Commission Shares, and ST Caesar hit new lows this year in intraday trading today. Although the number of new lows has been greatly reduced compared with the previous days, the heavily held stocks of Beishang Capital in the past have still become the hardest hit area. One of my strategies for tracking northbound funds, 19 of the 20 stocks today only fell. As for the top stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, Kweichow Moutai fell 3.41% to below 1,700 yuan; Ping An of China fell 1.34%, China Merchants Bank fell 3.42%, and the price fell below 30 yuan, returning to 2018; LONGi Green Energy fell 2.85%, the price also returned to 2 years ago.

If you just look at the valuation, in addition to Maotai, the valuations of Ping An and China Merchants Bank are already low enough. But it doesn’t mean that it won’t fall after it’s low. If you look at the Hong Kong stock market again, the new low is still a new low. The A-share China Merchants Bank fell by 11.17% for 4 days a week, and the H-share China Merchants Bank fell by 19.30%. Originally, the H-share China Merchants Bank was more expensive than the A-share, but now the Hong Kong dollar price of the H-share All are close to the RMB price of A shares. Falling and falling, falling below the glasses is not counted, but also falling below the eighteen layers of hell.

Why are all the big white horses affected? I think the main reason is that these chips are all in the hands of institutions of particular preference. Even if Maotai falls like this, at least the first hand will cost nearly 180,000. 95% of the small scattered funds can’t buy one hand of Maotai. From the perspective of holding positions, Maotai, Ping An, China Merchants Bank, Haitian, etc. are all representatives of institutions’ centralized positions. Once the chips are loosened, it is easy to cause a chain reaction.

The Beishang capital strategy I tracked myself is like this. The strategic returns in the three years from 2019 to 2021 are as high as 60.06%, 58.84%, and 17.65% respectively, far outperforming the CSI 300 Index. , the strategic rate of return is about -29%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index, mainly due to the stampede phenomenon caused by the concentrated holding of these chips, and it starts to run away when it is a little bad. H shares have fallen too much, which in turn will affect its A shares. I think part of the reason for China Merchants Bank’s A shares is that it was brought down by H shares.

The reflection aroused by this incident is that it is not only that individual stocks are not successful for a hundred days, but people are not good for a thousand days. The same is true of strategies, no strategy can be all-encompassing. As for whether these stocks have bottomed, I find it hard to say, but certainly not too far from the bottom. Among them, Maotai and Haitian with high valuations may still have to go some way. Regardless of whether it is valued by Shiller or DCF, the most difficult thing is the prediction of the future and the preference of Mr. Market.

183d0e091a3142503fe71777.png

Convertible bonds have rebounded for 3 consecutive days, and the turnover is increasing day by day. It feels that convertible bonds have bottomed out before stocks. As soon as the market rose, some people felt that the slightly spicy growth was too slow, and they liked the ones with no threshold. Among the 10 convertible bonds in the position, Huatai Convertible Bonds rose by 11.81%, and Guiguang Convertible Bonds rose by 10.09%. But if you don’t look at the fall a few days ago, Chong Lai also fell a lot.

It is very spicy when it rises and slightly spicy when it falls. Of course, this is the most ideal, but it is only a good wish that is difficult to achieve. I can’t stand the huge withdrawal of heavy spicy, so I have been sticking to the mild spicy, just like many Shanghai people eat the yellow-label spicy sauce with fried pork chops, saying that it is not spicy, and it is not spicy and a little spicy. Just to satisfy our Shanghainese taste buds.

There are 9 discussions on this topic in Snowball, click to view.
Snowball is an investor’s social network, and smart investors are here.
Click to download Snowball mobile client http://xueqiu.com/xz ]]>

This article is reproduced from: http://xueqiu.com/6146592061/232636957
This site is for inclusion only, and the copyright belongs to the original author.