I know that many of my friends are looking forward to this article, but I didn’t write this until Tencent stood at 250. This article wants to say a bit more points, divided into several sub-headings to write.
1. Avenue increase
Yesterday, I saw a lot of friends chatting about Dao’s increase in Tencent’s position in Xueqiu and Moments. How should I say it? I think if it is Tencent Investment who thinks and judges independently, the information about his behavior of increasing positions may be part of Mr. Market. In fact, this belongs to external information interference.
If we simply start from the perspective of Tencent’s value and price, and have enough judgment by ourselves, the basis for whether or not to increase the position should be derived by ourselves, and it has nothing to do with Dao’s increase in the position. At this time, the information of Dao Dao, especially the information after being disseminated, is part of Mr. Market. It does not conform to the core ideas of long-term investment, value investment and rational investment .
2. Don’t expect, just respond
This sentence was a sentence that had a deep impact on me in the process of researching Mr. Jiang Cheng, a public fund manager in China and Thailand some time ago.
Recently reading “The Most Important Thing in Investing”, Howard Marcos also mentioned that it is actually quite difficult for us to predict the future. Although many problems seem to be normally distributed, it is possible that when we make a specific decision, we will catch up with a relatively low probability accidental event.
Therefore, in fact, in the investment process, we are actually making predictions about what will happen in the future, but this prediction must have a probability of success. There may even be some accidental events that make our predictions not happen as expected.
Therefore, for investors, the most important thing is not to set too high expectations for yourself, let alone investors. Under low expectations or even no expectations, do what you can do. Insist on buying good companies, and at the same time, we must insist on buying good companies when there is a margin of error.
If, every time we talk about the margin of safety after a big drop, or after a lot of falls. And after the rise, more talk about long-term value, ignoring the margin of safety. In fact, we are still far from value investing. Because long-term certainty and valuation should be discussed after the rise, and margin of safety should be discussed after the fall. In fact, at the level of an investment strategy, it is influenced by Mr. Market. In essence, it is still a part of Mr. Market, but it is more advanced.
A good investment strategy should be consistent and have a certain balance between Mr. Market’s greed and fear. This balance can be stricter on the margin of safety when buying, and stricter when evaluating long-term value.
3. Perfection is the enemy of excellence
In any field, the pursuit of perfection is difficult, after all, our resources are limited.
In traditional Chinese culture, it is more in line with the laws of nature to think that imperfection may be.
The same is true in investing, if the pursuit of perfection. It should be selling at the highest point and buying at the lowest point.
But in practice, it is difficult for us to guarantee that we are buying at the lowest point. There is still a chance that it will fall after buying. What we should do is how to ensure that the price of buying an asset is indeed much lower than the value. This requires repeated confirmation of the asset value.
At the same time, when selling, we shouldn’t be overly chasing highs. Especially in the process of rising stock prices, we will inevitably be affected by emotions, so as to overestimate the value of the enterprise, so as to be reluctant to sell. It even believes that some companies have extremely high long-term value, so as not to admit that the company is currently overvalued. Then have to accept the process of business decline. Of course, companies with real long-term value will rise back even if they retreat. However, for future judgments, especially the risks of various internal and external factors, in fact, as an investor, from a personal perspective, judgment is always a probability. Since it is a probability, there is a certain risk that it will develop in a direction other than pre-judgment.
Why do I like investing? Keeping my original intention in mind, investing allows me to remain curious about many things while maintaining relative freedom. It can maintain a certain breadth and a certain depth at the same time, which can realize interdisciplinary cognition and thinking.
Conversely, a lot of thinking in investment can be applied not only to investment. For business operations, including economics, finance, culture, technology and other fields, from the perspective of investment, we will continue to think and generate new cognitions, and then these cognitions can corroborate each other, and finally form a more different perceptions.
Of course, in fact, no matter whether it is investment or cognition, we do these things in the hope of living a better life. Material is one aspect, but what investment can give us is more psychological growth and tempering. Of course, physical and mental health is a whole, no matter what field you are doing, making yourself healthier is the most important thing.
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