$Wen’s Shares(SZ300498)$ $Muyuan Shares(SZ002714)$
In July last year, I wrote an article “Investment in Pig Stocks: Muyuan on the Left, Wen’s on the Right”. It has been more than a year since then. During this year, I have successively written some influential articles, such as the webpage link of “Wen’s shares are the most beautiful boy in the next round of pig cycle” published in November last year, “Muyuan shares are not fake, but Muyuan’s The link to the web page of “The Chief Financial Officer is Lakwa”, the link to the web page of “Buying Wen’s Right Time After a Record Loss of Ten Billion” written in October last year, the link to the web page of “The Inflection Point of Wen’s Share Management Formally Established” written in August last year, etc. Wait.
These articles actually all have the same theme, that is, to buy pig stocks, you can just buy Muyuan and Wen’s. More than a year has passed, the original 12 shares of Wen’s shares have become 21 yuan, and the 47 yuan shares of Muyuan have become 60 yuan. It should be said that they have achieved good returns.
To this day, I still stick to my point of view a year ago: Zuo Muyuan and You Wen’s are the best pig stock investment strategies.
1. From an operational point of view, Wen’s and Muyuan have successively entered the reversal establishment stage
In August last year, I issued an article pointing out that the inflection point of Wen’s business was officially established. This judgment was based on the forward-looking judgment given by the data at that time. The real inflection point of slaughtering occurred in April this year, and the real inflection point of business performance occurred in August this year, because there was a simultaneous increase in volume and price in August. It can be said that if everyone is still worried about whether Wen’s will go bankrupt when Wen’s recorded a record loss of tens of billions in the first half of 2021, then the data in August this year has proved that such bankruptcy worries can be completely dispelled. Wen’s shares have completely come out of bankruptcy . In other words, the dilemma reversal is fully established. This is also the core logic behind why Wen’s share price has doubled in just over a year.
This derivation is also applicable to Muyuan, but the time is pushed back half a year. In the first half of this year, Muyuan Co., Ltd. also suffered a record loss of 10 billion yuan. At that time, there were widespread doubts about Muyuan’s financial fraud, cash flow depletion, and bankruptcy risks. However, with the continuous rise in hog prices in the second half of the year, doubts about Muyuan’s cash flow have also disappeared. In layman’s terms, if you are still worried about Muyuan’s cash flow in the first half of the year, then after August, this worry can be completely dispelled , because the rise in the price of live pigs in recent months has helped Muyuan quickly recover cash flow, and Muyuan’s The suspicion of bankruptcy disappeared. So you see, the fixed increase plan was passed immediately,
2. Judging from the stock price, Wen’s is in the middle of rising, and Muyuan is at the starting point of rising
Shares are ahead of operations. Because Wen’s reversal of difficulties was established half a year earlier than Muyuan, Wen’s stock price also rose half a year earlier than Muyuan. Therefore, Wen’s is in the middle of rising, while Muyuan is at the starting point of rising.
To say that Wen’s is in the midst of rising is mainly to say two points: one is that Wen’s will continue to rise, and the other is that Wen’s increase has already passed half. This judgment is mainly based on the fact that I have always given Wen’s target market value of about 300 billion yuan. The current market value of Wen’s is 150 billion yuan, and there is still room for a 100% increase.
To say that Muyuan is at the starting point of rising mainly means that Muyuan is a complete hog stock, and Muyuan’s operation depends entirely on the price of hogs. At present, the new round of the pig cycle is still in the bottom spinning stage, so Muyuan’s stock price is still in the bottom spinning stage, and the real rise has not yet begun.
It is this judgment that also explains why Muyuan’s stock price has been stronger than Wen’s recently.
Because Wen’s is not exactly a pig stock, it is still a chicken stock. Chicken has finished its rising phase and is consolidating at a high level. Therefore, in the future, Wen’s business will have both a rise in pig prices and a drop in chicken prices. In this regard, the principle of Mu should be more straightforward, there is only a lot, and there is no space.
In short, there are so many wordy words, just to say that pig stock investment is still left to Muyuan and right to Wen’s. It’s just that in terms of configuration ratio, Muyuan’s ratio is appropriately larger than Wen’s.
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