Original link: https://pt.plus/07-02-2023-con-sequence/

This week’s topic is (Con)Sequence sequence (cause and effect).

The ” Void Moat ” released last week has received a lot of feedback from readers. This post is an incomplete summary of a lot of reading and thinking lately. It is more like reviewing what happened in the past from the perspective of reverse chronology, or to use an industry slang term, it is called review.

One day while I was waiting for the machine to devour a stack of waste paper by the shredder (this is a kind of relaxation method close to meditation), I realized that causality depends largely on the order of time series. How reliable this idea is, I really dare not say-I still vaguely remember that Kant or Lockery, who studied in high school, once touched this issue. Whether it happens first or later has too much influence on the so-called “endgame”.

At this point, Investors and Operators have very different views.

Investors don’t care that much about sequence, or even about cause and effect—they care about results. The so-called ending is to predict the final form, as long as you make such a judgment, then just wait at the end. The evolution of the sequence process is sometimes just noise, falling into the trap of timing and causing unnecessary losses.

Operators must pay attention to sequence and cause and effect, because the essence of learning is to understand cause and effect, and only cause and effect can find that point of certainty in all uncertainties—sometimes, this is even considered a kind of good luck. In the competition, it is always better to find it first than to find it later, but certainty is easy to be plagiarized, and running fast does not necessarily mean running long.

Competing Against Luck by Professor Clayton Christensen was his last great contribution to the world before his death. The Chinese translation of this book later translated other names, which are not as true to the original meaning: luck seems to be uncertainty, but for those who get luck, they actually get certainty, but how can a person get good luck all the time? Woolen cloth? Then there must be his reason behind it. This book is to dismantle those thinking processes that you can’t see.

In many cases, the disassembly in these business books only disassembles the results, but there is no complete sequence of how the disassembly results are formed-the latter requires too much information, and it is difficult for ordinary authors to access. Some biographies may be written, but they are often buried in a myriad of details. In addition, readers may not have personal experience, so they are likely to be ignored as irrelevant or curious experiences. It makes sense to read again after returning from hundreds of battles. Every word read on paper may evoke the memory of blood and fire on the battlefield.

Many of the vague words shared in this newsletter before may meet some readers who understand, or may just be incomprehensible.

Essays

Meta’s Achilles Heel(s) by Abdullah Al Rezwan

Recently read Rezwan’s MBI Deep Dives more. This article is a continuation of the previous article Meta’s Moat , mainly writing about the hidden dangers of Meta.

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