22 years of mid-year newspaper to see the trend of the pharmaceutical industry (vaccine)

Original userfield deployment investment2022-08-26

Everyone hates the vaccine industry right now. However, in the mid-term report season, some vaccine companies began to disclose their mid-term reports, and there are still some things worth paying attention to!

Sales exceeded expectations: Several seedlings sold well beyond expectations in my opinion!

1. HPV: Zhifei’s performance has not yet come out, but MSD said that the global HPV growth rate is 46%, and Zhifei’s performance is likely to be good; Wantai’s 2-price HPV sales are nearly 4.4 billion, and Wantai’s 2-price HPV said it could when it was launched. It sold 10 million pieces, no one believed it, but now it has sold 13 million pieces in half a year, and if it sells 30 million pieces in the whole year, I don’t think everyone is surprised. This thing, the price of more than 300, makes half the profit. If you shoot casually, excluding IVD business, 30 million HPVs correspond to a profit of 4.5 billion in a year. Wantai is also one of the very few companies that I have seen. The opening price is more than 10 times the IPO price, and then the profit has greatly increased by 20 times in three years. It can really hold up its market value.

2. 13- price pneumonia: Kangtai’s momentum is a bit slow, but it is less than 1 million in half a year, and it is estimated that it will be about 3 million in the whole year; Watson’s sales volume in 21 years is 4.5 million, which is considered quite satisfactory. The basic calculation method is 10 million in the industry. Half; but in the first half of 22, there were more than 3 million units, which was still a bit higher than expected. In the second half of the year, it ran normally, almost 7 million units. This year, Pfizer should be left behind! The single profit of this seedling is 250 yuan, almost 800 million in profit in the first half of the year, and almost 1.8 billion in profit for the whole year. Even without RNA vaccine, Watson will not collapse with 13-valent pneumonia and HPV!

3. Influenza vaccine: I also saw the flu vaccine company making money in the first half of the year! In previous years, the flu business was all about working with stock solution, living at a loss, and making money in the second half of the year. In the first half of this year, there was a high incidence of influenza in the south, which brought a wave of demand. The most important thing is that the flu vaccine is planned in advance, so that there can be sufficient feedback time from production to the vaccination terminal, so as not to find out that the willingness to vaccinate is not strong until the end of the year, and finally the asset is devalued. For Hualan Vaccine, it also sold 1 billion worth of goods first, and then there are almost 9 million flu vaccines, and the quadrivalent flu vaccine is about 35-45 yuan for a single profit. Judging from the appetizers in the first half of the year, Hualan is still the leader in the industry. No matter in terms of first-mover advantage, complete product range, production capacity planning, sales channels or forward-looking data on batch issuance, Hualan has a strong advantage in the field of quadrivalent influenza. For the influenza vaccine industry, the main concern is that the annual vaccination volume has changed too much in recent years, mainly due to the expected strengthening of the new crown epidemic and vaccination conflicts, etc., and return to the normal rhythm, the influenza industry has a stable vaccination volume in the end how many? Probably the question before all flu vaccine companies and investors.

For some other vaccines, maybe half-yearly, nothing particularly exceeded expectations, but we can still see some industry trends!

4. Rabies vaccine: In the first half of the year, everyone stayed at home, and it is estimated that fewer people were bitten by dogs, but the overall industry demand should still be stable! Two trends, one is that the penetration rate of Kanghua’s human-sourced rabies is still increasing, and sales have increased by 20%; the other trend is that the dominant pattern of Chengda Rabies is gradually disintegrating, and companies such as Amy are rising to grab share. At a glance, Kanghua has grown by more than 20%, while Chengda has fallen by more than 20%. Between one positive and one negative, the revenue and profit levels of the two companies in the first half of the year are almost the same!

5. Tetanus vaccine: This is a very interesting vaccine, a typical old tree with new flowers. Usually this type of vaccine is an adult vaccine. In the past, people didn’t pay attention to it, and they didn’t find the right sales channels or marketing methods. By redefining the use scenarios of products and expanding sales channels, Olin sold the tetanus vaccine that everyone didn’t like before. 500 million+. This shows that adult vaccines sometimes need to fully tap their potential, and the ceiling may be higher than everyone thinks. Large varieties of HPV vaccines are constantly breaking through the ceiling, and now we may see a level of 40 billion. And even an inconspicuous variety like tetanus can be worth hundreds of millions if done well.

6. A big hit at the door: One of the blockbuster vaccines in the industry is in the pre-market stage. One is 100 grams of herpes zoster. Although it is deactivated, the price is suitable and the channel is found to be powerful. There may also be a good market space. After all, elderly people The benefits to people are quite large. Another heavyweight should be Kangtai’s human-derived rabies, the second one after Kanghua. In the short term, the pattern is not bad. Human-derived rabies is the biggest driving force for Vero cell rabies vaccine.

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