For the liquid milk supermarket research, I started on August 2, 2021, and it was limited to 2~3 cities in Sichuan. It was also at that time that I started to buy Yili shares step by step, and it has just been one year.
Let’s talk about my own feelings and opinions. Of course, due to the limited research area, it is inevitable to be biased, and one person’s ability is very limited, and our retail investors are not like institutions. We can get the sales data of dealers. Therefore, I have an idea, that is, I hope that the snowball players who invest in Yili shares across the country can organize and set up one: the Dairy Industry Large-scale Commercial Supermarket Research Alliance, so that each investor can distinguish the liquid milk sales situation of the large-scale commercial supermarkets in the city. Conduct research, and the aggregated data is shared free of charge.
The value of any ordinary commodity is no different from 1: the selling price; 2: the popularity of the public (consumer purchase willingness index) ; (3): the composition of turnover speed (production date, consumer purchase volume) and other factors .
I will share my research method below. I admit that this method is very crude and even a bit funny. Most golfers will probably dismiss it, but please believe me, after passing the research, as a minority shareholder, when you have mastered the data, Even if it is relatively one-sided and small-scale data, it will definitely strengthen your confidence in holding stocks! ! !
For the reference of all golfers, 1. In the large supermarket, observe the production date of various kinds of milk; 2. Outside the gate of the large supermarket, observe the type and quantity of milk purchased by consumers, and count them with a mobile phone. I use: 1 for Yili shares, 2 for Mengniu Dairy, and 3 for other dairy industries; for example: 1.1, it means 1 person bought 1 piece of milk from Yili stock, and so on, 1.2 means 1 person bought 2 pieces of Yili In addition, Mengniu Dairy and other dairy companies conduct statistics in accordance with this method. The time is generally about 1 hour to 1.5 hours, and the data for the weekends of Week 1 to Week 4 and Week 5 to Week 6 are separated.
1. Sales price
Taking Yili’s ordinary classic pure milk (12 boxes, 250ml/box) as an example, when the research was conducted in August 2021, the price could be purchased at around 40 yuan. In 2022, the supermarket will conduct two rounds of price adjustment. The round is about 10%, which is about: 44.9 yuan, and the second round is about 11%. At present, the basic price is basically stable at 49.9 yuan, and some products with a production date of about 4 months will be reduced by 5~10 yuan for promotion.
In 2022, the overall price increase of terminal milk will be about 22%.
2. Production date
Generally, the shelf life of liquid milk is 6 months. In supermarkets, the production date of Yili’s best-selling and freshest boxed milk is from the beginning of July to the middle of July this year, which is about half a month to one month. Prove that the turnover rate of goods is fast and the turnover rate is very healthy. But you can also see some niche categories of An Muxi, such as: An Muxi vanilla flavor, which is really not selling well, the date is basically March to April, there are discounts and promotions, and buyers are still rare. It is suggested that while catering to consumers’ tastes, Yili should dynamically combine sales data and make appropriate category adjustments.
3. Consumer Purchase Intention Index
Why pay attention to this indicator? To put it bluntly, milk is a mass consumer product and there are many manufacturers. The consumer purchase intention index refers to the willingness to choose a brand regardless of the quantity you buy. For example, if 100 consumers buy milk, 60 consumers buy milk from Yili, 30 consumers buy milk from Mengniu, and 10 consumers buy milk from other brands, then the consumers’ willingness to buy from Yili, Mengniu and the other three The indices are: 60%, 30%, and 10%.
I just want to talk about the survey results of the same supermarket in Sichuan on August 2 (Week 2) and August 3 (Week 3) for 2 consecutive days. Yili’s consumer purchase intention index is about 67%~69%.
Fourth, consumer purchases
After the purchase intention is obtained, the purchase volume of consumers will be counted. Because milk is an easy-to-buy and re-purchased commodity, most consumers generally buy 1-2 mentions at a time. According to the survey results in the same supermarket in Sichuan on August 2 (Week 2) and August 3 (Week 3) for two consecutive days, Yili’s consumer purchase volume is still around 68%.
The above are the 4 important data that I attach the most importance to in my grassroots research on Yili. I hope that it can be helpful to investors who invest in Yili now or in the future. They all say that it is better to teach a man to fish than to teach him how to fish. The method is not necessarily the right one. , the only drawback is that the area is small and the data coverage is not large enough. But I personally think it is more suitable for me. At present, it can only be said that it is a glimpse of the leopard, and I hope to get more research and sharing from golfers, especially those who invest in Yili.
Finally, I am going to continue sailing on the big ship of Yili and accompany Yili to realize its second goal of 100 billion yuan as soon as possible.
$Yili (SH600887)$ $Mengniu Dairy (02319)$ $Bright Dairy (SH600597)$
@ Luoyang small retail investors @ 不吉泰东宝杰@林园@赵书书@李金也
1. “Spring Festival Milk Research” web link
2. “Yili has raised prices, Mengniu will not follow? 》 Web Link
3. Miscellaneous notes on consumer research, recording the investment process 4 (Yili shares) web link
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