Industry cycle VS sub-industry cycle VS company development cycle

1. The cycle of industry development is generally divided into the introduction period (0-1), the growth period (1-N), the maturity period (N-N+1), and the recession period.
2. Under the premise of the development cycle of the entire industry, the cycle of subdivided industries will also be different.
The most perfect thing is that both volume and price go up. If a large industry is in the growth stage, the growth in volume should be normal. As for the price increase, I think it should also be divided into two categories, one is caused by the imbalance of supply and demand (that is, the product quality has not changed, but the price has risen sharply), and the other is caused by the product iterative upgrade. The price has risen sharply.
Obviously, the price increase caused by the imbalance of supply and demand is in the industry cycle, and there is another price cycle, then the stock price shows that it rises very violently, and the same is true when it falls. Then the profit is super high, and the PE will be very low. Due to the price increase caused by product iteration, everyone expected better and gave a higher valuation.
So for sub-sectors with imbalanced supply and demand, I think the market should anchor a total market value ratio (the entire industry valuation multiplied by the ratio). Lithium ore, silicon material, trichlorosilane, industrial silicon, etc. will be like this.
Then we can see the trend of selling shovels in the upstream of lithium mines. Is there some deviation from lithium mines?
3. No matter how good a company is in the development cycle of the company, it is not easy for him to maintain a 30% revenue growth for many years (excluding the price increase caused by the mismatch between supply and demand)
(1) Before the barriers between leading companies and second- and third-tier companies are broken, they firmly hold leading companies, and leading companies have obvious advantages.
After the barriers become lower and the technology iteration becomes very slow, the second- and third-tier companies are selected, and the gap between the second- and third-tier companies and the leading companies is narrowing.
(2) The development stage of the company is actually the same as the previous one, but for the subdivision without much iteration, take lithium mine as an example, let’s see which ones have increased more last year and which ones have increased more this year.
A snowball friend said: Choose PPT to bring the company into reality.
Although the industry is developing greatly, but in the development stage of the company, some companies are N-2N, some companies are 0-N, and some companies are like 0-N, but it may be that it has been unable to move here after 0-3. .

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