Recently, Zhou Weiwen, chairman of the China-Europe Fund Equity Investment Committee and one of the “Four Kings of China-Europe”, shared the above views on the recent market adjustment.

The following is the essence of the investment workbook (WeChat ID: touzizuoyeben) to share with you:

The market is getting closer and closer to a positive factor

Q: The overall market has fluctuated a lot recently. What is your opinion on the overall market recently?

Zhou Weiwen: Before the Spring Festival, my expectations for the domestic economy will be more pessimistic than most people in the society. At that time, the following points were mainly considered: first, the real estate may not return to a normal state immediately; second, the epidemic will be more serious than everyone thinks. Now it seems to be more and more a reality, not to mention the Russian-Ukrainian war, which has some impact on China’s current and future economy.

In the later stage, when China is out of the epidemic, there will be more and more positive factors , including the increasing vaccination rate of vaccines, the introduction of small molecule drugs or drugs developed in China, the upgrade of hospital isolation policies, and the expansion of medical resources. good for meeting this challenge.

The current market has almost reflected these issues on an economic level, and now it may be getting closer to a positive factor.

I didn’t expect the Russian-Ukrainian war to drag on for so long

Zhou Weiwen: In my opinion, the Russian-Ukrainian war is a black swan that I didn’t expect before, and I didn’t expect it to drag on for so long . It would have some impact on the global economy and the world structure, and it may have some impact in the future .

Under such reasonable expectations, we believe that after the Russian-Ukrainian war stops in the future, the global economy as a whole should usher in a relatively good period of time . However, it is difficult to judge the specific time point, because everyone is not very confident now.

more valuable

Q: The market has fallen a lot. How do you see the overall investment performance in the current market?

Zhou Weiwen: From a medium and long-term perspective, the stock market during the downturn is much more valuable than it was before it fell. Some companies in the Hong Kong stock market may be relatively better. Some companies are very good and their market value is quite low. From my cognitive ability, these companies still have long-term sustainable operation ability, that is, they can obtain industry alpha for a long time. company.

In the medium and long term, I think that the higher the probability, the more valuable it is. Of course, how to judge everyone’s opinions are different. My opinion is still based on the perspective of the long-term cash flow and net profit of the company in the medium and long term.

It will take some time for the macro economy to bottom out

Q: At present, how long is the expected recovery cycle for the consumer sector?

Zhou Weiwen: If you look at the sector, you don’t need to consider the competitiveness of individual stocks and long-term operating capabilities, then in fact, it is a matter of time selection, that is, the timing of buying and selling, that is, judging when the macro economy bottoms out. I think the macro economy is affected by real estate, the epidemic, the international situation, etc. It is estimated that it will take some time.

But judging based on this factor alone may not necessarily capture the best time to buy a stock. For example, aviation, which was so miserable last year, but some airlines have risen a lot. So even if you judge when the macro economy bottoms out, you still need to keep improving if you want to go to the lowest point to buy stocks.

Our solution is to buy gradually if we think that the annualized return in the next few years will meet the future demand in the medium and long term . Everyone sees what you see, and you see what everyone sees. In this case, the stock price will reflect. We hope to see things that everyone has not seen.

Under what circumstances will the stock be sold?

Q: I would like to know what is the basis for your decision to sell stocks, do you mainly consider taking profit? If the stock you bought did not make a relatively good return within a year, would you still choose to continue to hold it?

Zhou Weiwen: Generally speaking, selling stocks means that the industry or company’s operating conditions have reached the expected high or are approaching the high point, or the market value has reached a stage where it is fully reflected. My past practice is to gradually sell stocks with more positions. May be sold over several months.

Some stocks have been held for one year. Logically, if the performance is relatively poor, it means that the decision made a year ago may have been wrong, but “poor performance” is also a relative concept, because there may be policy reasons or other reasons. Profits are realized after half a year or more, which also requires specific analysis and comprehensive evaluation.

New energy vehicles and photovoltaics may be differentiated

Q: In the new energy sector, are you more optimistic about photovoltaics or electric vehicles? What do you think about the military?

Zhou Weiwen: At present, new energy and military industry are industries with good growth momentum, but stocks are not futures, and stocks are bought for medium and long-term expectations in the future. So we have to think about what will happen in 3-5 years and beyond, and whether it is worth so much money. From this point of view, a sector has risen for 2-3 years in the past, and generally speaking, the probability of obtaining excess returns is not large .

The industry is developing very well, but there may be some differentiation in stocks, whether it is new energy vehicles or photovoltaics, there may be differentiation . Even if the profit margins of some sub-sectors in the past two years were very good, it is possible that they will gradually enter the stage of declining profit margins, and some estimate that they will begin to decline in the near future.

We need to avoid these industries that have no obvious long-term investment value , but the volume of these industries is relatively certain, so we can find sub-sectors with low profit margins. There should be some opportunities. For the military industry, it is in this way.

This article is reprinted from: https://news.futunn.com/post/15321422?src=3&report_type=market&report_id=204983&futusource=news_headline_list
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