Anticipate your expectations in advance, this sentence is familiar!
Investors in the big A market are often troubled by “expectations”. Some companies seem to be doing well. It has maintained a growth trend, but the stock price has continued to fall.
On the contrary, other companies with poor performance and deep losses. The stock price is thriving, and it’s amazing.
why?
People don’t know why, and when they are confused and angry, they often generalize: Volume! Throw your anger on the “evil institution” and let it go.
Is it really like this? No way!
Let’s start with a few chestnuts: pigs, consolidation, and bank insurance.
Taking pigs as an example, pig farmers in the market: large enterprises, small and medium-sized farms and rural free-range farmers. When the price of meat fell to a certain extent, farmers were the first to give up raising pigs. Then there are small, medium and large, and so on, and finally the industry giants like Muyuan.
Therefore, the price of meat fell sharply in the second half of last year, resulting in losses for the entire industry, but this situation will inevitably last for a long time. As a result, smart funds entered the market and pulled up the stock prices of Muyuan.
That’s it: anticipating your expectations ahead of time!
On the contrary, the container shipping market at the beginning of last year was so hot! Thousands of pets set in one! One side is hard to ask, but you can’t ask for it!
However, smart funds expect this situation to last for a long time. So, while Xiaosan is still in the dark, let’s slip away in advance!
This is also: anticipating your expectations ahead of time!
Since then, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings has fallen into a vicious circle. The financial report is booming, but the stock price has been falling. The sailors were bewildered and complained.
The same is true for bank-insured land. After the real estate developer purchases the land, it takes several years to settle the profit. The loan contracts signed by banks and customers are mainly medium and long-term contracts of more than five years. Insurance companies, in particular, have life insurance policies for decades.
Therefore, the financial report performance of these companies has a certain lag.
Obviously, the industry has already entered a cold winter, but the financial report of Vanke A is not bad! Ping An of China and China Merchants Bank, which are closely related to it, have reported steady growth in profits, which is quite ironic.
If you don’t care about it, look into it carefully. It is easy to be blinded and fall into the value trap without knowing it. He was ridiculed as a chuck, calling himself an old iron group, and chatting for masturbation.
The same is: Anticipate your expectations ahead of time!
The same is true for the Sailor Corps. The contract signed in advance by COSCO SHIPPING Holdings locked in quite beautiful financial report data. Even if the spot freight rate plummets, shareholders turn a blind eye. Go back and forth with others on the forum, complaining endlessly!
Complaining against heaven and others will not help.
So, how good are the Muyuan people?
Not necessarily! Every industry has its own troubles! At present, the pig industry is relatively scattered, and pork is a necessity. Therefore, when the price of meat falls excessively, it is relatively easy to reverse. However, once the price of meat rises more, the farmers who quit before will make a comeback.
This is because the industry threshold is too low. Not to mention the moat, not even a small river ditch!
The group of elephants in the bank insurance land, once they fall into a downturn, it is not easy to reverse. But these industries are very important and important to the country, and high-level officials will not sit idly by. No, I still work overtime on the eve of the festival to give some benefits to build up confidence for everyone!
Once the situation is reversed, it will be another three or five years of good life. The upward cycle is obviously much stronger than that of the pigs.
As for COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, it will not be open for ten years, and it will be open for ten years! King of the cycle, well-deserved reputation! Earn so much, what else?
all in all:
Stock price: It has always been, has always been, and is likely to be in the future. It is positively correlated with earnings expectations for a period of time in the future! When expectations rise, they rise; when expectations fall, they fall. However, it has nothing to do with the past glory and the profit on the book.
Unless: the shareholders can control the company and divide up all the profits on the book!
In short.
Cycle is a very complex science, and each industry has its own characteristics. If you are not careful, you will become the payer after the feast.
Diamonds are forever, cycles never sleep!
risk warning:
Ou is a leek seedling, and his family is trapped in the prison of China’s peace. Nonsense, not to be true. Just watch it as a joke.
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