Welcome to the WeChat subscription number of “Sina Technology”: techsina
Text / Yang Xiaohe
Source: Tech Planet (ID: tech618)
He Xiaopeng said that he had been very anxious before the release of the new car G9. Now, within 20 days after the launch of this “Dream Car”, it still did not save the decline in sales and market value of Xiaopeng Motors.
The sales that made He Xiaopeng the most anxious still did not improve. In the September sales rankings of new car manufacturers, Xiaopeng ranked fifth with 8,468 sales, falling out of the top three perennially. Those who believe in Xiaopeng believe that the sales gain brought by the G9 has not yet been realized.
However, the new car-making forces generally announce the order data after the press conference. The official battle report of Huawei M7 shows that the orders for more than 60,000 units within 72 hours, and the cumulative order volume of the ideal L9 has exceeded 50,000 units since its release. These data mean that the monthly sales of car companies in the Q4 quarter will not be less than 10,000. Obviously, after the G9 press conference, the market confusion about its pricing system and the controversy over product power have affected the booking situation of this car. The undisclosed booking data means that the situation may not be ideal.
At the same time, during the “November” holiday, Xiaopeng P7 wedding cars drove NGP (high-level assisted driving) collectively, causing at least 4 P7 rear-end collisions. When a wedding car accident occurred at low speed on the side road, the intelligent assisted driving system failed to respond, causing controversy and doubts. This made He Xiaopeng’s publicity at the press conference that “G9 is the last generation of smart cars before autonomous driving” is unconvincing.
Various events and public opinions in the market have also affected the performance of Xpeng Motors in the capital market. On October 8, Xiaopeng’s share price fell below $10, and the latest market value fell to $8.5 billion. Although the market value of “Weixiaoli” has been affected by the increase in US stock interest rates, Xiaopeng Motors has fallen by 80.33% from the beginning of the year, which is still far more than the 58.89% drop of Weilai and the 39.49% drop of Ideal Auto.
Various unfavorable factors are ahead, and Wang Xing, the founder of Meituan/Ideal Investor, also looks at Xiaopeng: “In the past 20 to 30 years, the leader of China’s premium high-end market has always been the German BBA, and the next two or three The year depends on Wei Lihua.”
From “Wei Xiaoli” (Wei Lai, Xiaopeng, Ideal) to “Wei Lihua” (Wei Lai, Ideal, Huawei), under various unfavorable performances, there are many voices in the market discussing that Xiaopeng Motors is really behind Yet?
Xiaopeng is under pressure, must the G9 become a hit?
In the past year, Li Ming in Beijing plans to buy an additional smart car of more than 300,000 yuan for his family, but he has been struggling with which car to choose.
There are still quite a lot of new cars available in this range, including Huawei M7, Weilai ES7, ES7, ideal L8, L9, Xiaopeng’s G9 and so on. Judging from the popularity of new products, Li Ming has narrowed the scope to choose between L9 and G9. Li Ming searched the Internet and found that there are more discussions about the two.
When the Ideal L9 was released, Li Xiang once said that “the L9 is the best family SUV within 5 million yuan”, and then when the G9 was released, He Xiaopeng also followed suit and said “Xpeng G9 is the best SUV within 500,000 yuan”. In fact, the average price of the two is around 350,000. This price is the core competition area of medium and large SUVs. It is natural to compare them together.
After Li Ming went for a test drive, he believed that the car review KOL Chen Zhen summed up the best: “The ideal L9 is less than 500,000, the best choice for a family SUV, regardless of its large screen and spacious back seat; while the Xiaopeng G9 is the best choice for a family SUV. It is the best choice for a sports SUV within 500,000 yuan, after all, it has an acceleration of more than 100 meters in 3 seconds and high-level assisted driving.”
In fact, both cars are very powerful. The ideal L9 dares to claim to be the standard Rolls-Royce sports model Cullinan, relying on Li Xiang’s precise cutting skills, creating an era of consumption of three new energy vehicles, “color TV, refrigerator, and massage chair”; while the Xpeng G9’s 5D full-scene audio and video, high-level assisted driving NGP, and 800V ultra-fast rush are also very attractive to users.
But Li Ming still chose L9, because after G9 came out, various negative public opinions made him shrink back. The negative public opinion of Xiaopeng Motors has hit, it can be said that there are internal and external factors.
The internal factor is undoubtedly the sales strategy chosen by Xiaopeng, regardless of market sentiment. In fact, there are three sub-series G, E, and X behind the G9. There are various options for different series. Users can’t figure out these complex product models at all. Therefore, many bloggers also made G9 product maze diagrams to help users distinguish .
Xiaopeng Motors also quickly realized the problem, and announced the adjustment of configuration and price 2 days later. It also adjusted the naming method to the Plus, Pro, and Max series that consumers are more familiar with, applying Apple’s naming method for smartphones. This wave of product pricing public opinion has greatly affected the enthusiasm of users who are ready to book after the launch.
The external reason is that the major review bloggers have a bad view of the G9. Although the comprehensive product strength of this car is good, consumers often need to consider the price/performance ratio when making decisions. G9 is known as a big 5-seat true flagship. Relying on high-end assisted driving, 800V ultra-fast charging and other technological strengths, the top-end price has reached 470,000, but the obvious experience of interior, car UI, and rear seat space is obviously not enough. As one wishes.
The hard technical strength of the G9 does not match the models it is equipped with, and the riding experience and driving experience are inverted. Therefore, some netizens think that the product positioning of the G9 is awkward: either it is the same platform as the P7, 400V fast charging, and the low-end version of the G7 is launched to grab the market of the ideal ONE; And the leg rest is changed to optional, the price is reduced by 20,000, and the sales volume can be saved.
After Xiaopeng’s P5 failed to become a popular model, if the sales volume of the Dream Car G9 in He Xiaopeng’s mouth may not be as expected, it will undoubtedly have a serious impact on the development of Xiaopeng for a period of time in the future. After all, the average price of Weilai’s models is 440,000 yuan, and the sales volume can still rank third, while Xiaopeng’s price range is a lower 150,000-350,000 yuan. If the sales volume is still unmatched, it may be squeezed out of “Wei Xiaoli” camp.
Mid-term inspection of new car-making forces
For the Xiaopeng G9, there is another fatal factor, that is, the delivery time will not start until Q4, and the L8 and L7 released two months in advance, and the L9 released in June, gradually formed a full encirclement of the G9.
According to the blogger “Blood Jingqi” who is very familiar with Xiaopeng Motors, the original plan of the G9 was a 400V platform plus the P5 top with the set of assisted driving (Livox lidar, Xavier chip), and then it will be launched around the middle of 2021. This car may be the low-end version of the G7 that was not born.
In the end, it was the G9 that came out later. “Blood Flag” thinks it is a pity that due to some unexpected factors, the research and development was interrupted. “Later, I decided to go directly to the 800V system, but the 800V challenge is too big, and the battery pack is easy to make. However, the supporting motors, air conditioners, and the entire vehicle power system have to be filled, and the cost is too high, especially the cost of time.”
This also shows that Xiaopeng’s product line planning is chaotic. From the comparison of the ideal product line, after breaking away from the single explosion of the ideal ONE, Li Xiang launched the ideal L9, L8, L7, and L6, subdivided covering the product range of 250,000-500,000. There are better packages for family consumption choices.
And Xiaopeng’s product line, price and the corresponding consumer groups of products are not the same. G3, P5, P7, and G9 span the range of 150,000 to 470,000. This range includes entry-level consumption and mid-to-high-end consumer groups. Everyone’s consumption focus is different. For example, G3 focuses on the range of 150,000 to 200,000. Hua has no perception, this car should be a pure volume model.
The G9 is in the range of 300,000 to 450,000. This group of people attaches great importance to the experience of the car. The geek mode is not suitable for this group of people. The G9 is the exact opposite product idea.
From the sales volume of Xiaopeng in September, it also reflects the impact of sales caused by product positioning. Xpeng’s flagship model, the P7, delivered 4,634 units in September, which is far from the sales volume of the ideal and Huawei’s single popular model. The delivery of the Xpeng P5 was only 2,417 units, while the Xpeng G3i delivered 1,233 units. It is difficult to dilute the R&D and production costs of enterprises by point sales.
Although the P7 is an explosive model, it has been 2 years since the release of this model, and it is approaching the end of the 2-3 year life cycle of the new model. The P5 and G3 have been released for a long time, and it has been determined that they will not become explosive models in terms of sales. At the time when NIO’s ET5 and the ideal L9 are explosive, it will be very important whether Xiaopeng’s G9 can hold up the banner in the future.
The fact that several models cannot be sold in succession actually shows the play behind the company.
The ideal is the way to play popular products, which tests the company’s No. 1 approach to the product; Weilai is the way of service and branding, flying to Europe, only renting but not selling, and whether the market recognizes it or not; BYD is an industrialized thinking Scale and cost-effectiveness win; Tesla is a leading generation of full-stack self-developed, and it is also an advantage of early entry. Xiaopeng’s labeling style may be intelligent, which can be seen from the fact that the G9 prefers to lag behind and requires high-end hard technology. And Xiaopeng can be said to be intelligent, and the current setbacks are also due to intelligence.
At the earliest, Xiaopeng successfully won the favor of consumers because of its automatic parking and other assisted driving scene technologies. In addition to the good-looking appearance of the popular P7 model, the sales explosion also started after the large-scale NGP push, and the highlight of the G9 is also high-level assisted driving.
However, in the middle, the key to P5’s failure to open the situation is that the city high-precision map cannot be listed for a long time, and CNGP (City-NGP) cannot be practical. And the Xarier chip can’t digest the amount of data from lidar. G9 also dragged down the time-to-market due to technologies such as full-scene NGP and 800V ultra-fast charging.
But the more important reason is that in the road of intelligence, Xiaopeng faces too strong competitors. Tesla and Huawei’s investments in chips, vehicle systems, autopilot algorithms, lidars and other fields are incomparable efforts by Xiaopeng, a new force.
When the resources and strength do not match the dream, it is not difficult to understand the setbacks that Xiaopeng encounters now.
Rapid adjustment, how Xiaopeng can win the future
Xiaopeng, who didn’t want to accept his fate, didn’t want to change his style of play.
In June, He Xiaopeng raised a question: In the fierce competition, the global market, the non-fast-moving goods industry, and the 2C non-protection field, which good products rely on precise positioning to gain advantages or barriers in the medium or long term?
Li wants to reply with a heart emoji below, which is very meaningful. He Xiaopeng may think that the ability of product positioning is not enough to become a long-term barrier, but the technological leap forward can create a barrier. This statement is logically correct, but back to reality, it is the living environment that Xiaopeng faces.
A former Tesla employee told Tech Planet that although Xiaopeng Motors and other new domestic automakers are learning from Tesla, there is one thing Tesla cannot learn, and that is “final thinking.” Tesla’s three-electric system and autonomous driving will not be considered for the moment, but from the choice of the final market.
He cited Tesla’s decision to abandon lidar and turn to pure vision because it believes that pure vision can meet the needs of autonomous driving in the future, and it is the cheapest route. Xpeng and other urban NGPs are realistic thinking, giving priority to meeting the current needs of users through technology combinations, and they do not have the ability to lead future development.
Therefore, in his opinion, Xiaopeng’s intelligent route is indeed a way to settle down, but a compromise style of play is not enough to establish a strong barrier in the future.
Xiaopeng really does not dare to bet on the route of technological transcendence, which can be seen from its development of self-developed chips.
According to a late Auto report, Weilai has formed a chip team of nearly 300 people, and the Xiaopeng chip team currently has no more than 200 people. Beginning in February this year, He Xiaopeng issued an internal letter, proposing to reduce costs and increase efficiency, improve gross profit margins, and started a round of layoffs, and began to reduce investment in the chip department.
The reason behind this is lack of money. As of the second quarter of this year, Xiaopeng’s cash and equivalents and deposits were 41.3 billion yuan, the corresponding figure for Weilai was 54.4 billion yuan, and the ideal was 53.65 billion yuan. But in fact, Xiaopeng’s cash is only more than 10 billion yuan, and the rest is the equivalent discount of inventory, and the loss must be calculated.
To make matters worse, Xiaopeng is still one of the companies with the most serious losses. Xiaopeng lost 4.4 billion yuan in the first half of this year. For Xiaopeng, the cash flow is not sufficient. On the other hand, the most loss-making new car-making forces are not the most profitable. In the gross profit margin ranking in 2021, Ideal Auto is 21%, Weilai is 19%, and Xiaopeng is only 12%.
Maybe Xiaopeng is not worried about this. He Xiaopeng has been looking forward to the day when autonomous driving is fully implemented, and the problems of loss and low gross profit rate will be solved. It will take some time for this day to arrive. The latest progress is September 17. The first high-level intelligent assisted driving in domestic mass-produced urban scenes, that is, Xiaopeng’s urban NGP, has been launched. He Xiaopeng described: This means that we have gathered all the parking lots. The three high-level intelligent assisted driving modules, urban roads and expressways, are moving towards the second half of unmanned driving with the goal of fully autonomous driving.
With the launch of urban NGP in cities other than Guangzhou, P5 and other models have been gradually upgraded, and the P7 facelift will be launched at the end of the year. In the short term, the sales of Xiaopeng will increase to a certain extent. After all, Xiaopeng’s top priority is to face the situation of Aian, Weilai and Ideal in front, and then the rising Nezha, Leapao, and Wenjie surpassing the situation. Sales are still an unavoidable problem.
Of course, the solution to the problem of sales cannot rely on price cuts. In addition to intelligence, Xiaopeng’s product planning and operations have shortcomings. Although Ideal has also encountered replacement products recently, it has fallen into a crisis of public opinion that is questioned about cutting leeks. These twists and turns may be the pains that all new forces in car building need to go through.
In the worst case scenario, even if the G9 does not sell well, Xiaopeng will not face serious and fatal challenges, but it is inevitable that it will be left behind for a short period of time.
(Disclaimer: This article only represents the author’s point of view and does not represent the position of Sina.com.)
This article is reproduced from: http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-10-10/doc-imqmmthc0369616.shtml
This site is for inclusion only, and the copyright belongs to the original author.