Thinking about the direction of big technology

This is an investment direction with a lot of room for growth and a clear policy that will always be supported. Big technology spans many industries, including chip semiconductors, military informatization, large aircraft and aerospace technology, computer innovation, digital economy Internet of Things virtual reality, automotive intelligence, biotechnology innovative drugs, etc.

Rejuvenating the country through science and education is one of the most important national strategies at present and in the future, and it is also the core focus of high-quality development. No matter how the situation at home and abroad changes, this direction will never change, and policy support will never change. This is very different from the pharmaceutical industry. Medicine is growing rapidly on the demand side. Of course, policies also support its development but limit its price. From this point of view alone, the direction of science and technology is superior to medicine.

Recently, five departments including the Ministry of Education jointly issued a notice to launch the “Special Training Program for Vocational Education Field Engineers”. It is estimated that by 2025, no less than 200,000 field engineers will be trained, and no less than 500 vocational colleges and 1,000 enterprises will participate in the project implementation. The special training plan is mainly for digital and intelligent career scenarios in key fields such as advanced manufacturing and strategic emerging industries. It can be seen that there is no doubt about the direction of science and technology from policy support.

We also have a special advantage that we can concentrate our efforts and gather resources to do big things. The development of national defense, military, aerospace, and aerospace benefits from this advantage.

Of course, there are also many shortcomings, such as the shortcomings of basic science, such as the lack of education system, such as the lack of scientific research atmosphere, such as the low scientific research efficiency of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises, such as the loss of scientific research talents and so on. We all know the deeper reason behind it, which is difficult to change in the short term. We are in such difficult circumstances, continuous improvement, continuous improvement, continuous development and continuous innovation.

The gap between many fields and ugly countries is not only huge, but also very huge. This self-knowledge is still there. This is caused by a variety of reasons. How many years have we really used to develop economic technology, and the current achievements of European and American countries have been used again. How many years, so admit the gap and admit that it is insufficient, but there is no need to belittle yourself and feel inferior.

From the perspective of investment alone, the larger the gap, the greater the room for growth and the greater the investment opportunities. The difficulties faced and some unchangeable facts also show that there is great uncertainty, and this uncertainty is a risk that has to be taken.

Investment in the technology industry is very different from the pharmaceutical consumption industry, both at home and abroad. In the long run, pharmaceutical consumption has a strong certainty of stable growth, but there is very little short-term exponential growth. The technology industry is the opposite. Before there is no qualitative breakthrough, it may be stagnant for many years. Once the breakthrough from 0 to 1 is completed, from 1 to 100, it will be exponentially explosive growth.

Therefore, many conservative investors who eat dividends cannot make technology stocks. They see that these technology companies are losing money every month and have no bottom in their hearts. Innovative drugs are the most typical example. They also can’t understand the high valuation of large aircraft and aerospace stocks and the logic of this wave of Xinchuang market. Tesla has suffered huge losses in the past few years but still has a market value of trillions of dollars. It is even more impossible for them to understand that BYD’s 100 to 200 times price-earnings ratio can increase several times a year. In their eyes, these are all bubbles. Little do they know that social progress is often driven by these bubbles.

Let’s talk about virtual reality here. Google, which started in 2012, was crazy about the mad cow market of small and medium-sized companies in 2015. In the next few years, the big blue-chip bull market completely declined. The market’s attention again was the turnout of the Metaverse at the end of last year. Born, chicken feathers returned to the starting point after a month or two of stir-frying. The attention of the market again is the five-year plan issued by the five departments a few days ago. It is no wonder that many people look down on his ten-year dream. The rise of all new things is like this, whether it is the Internet, smartphones or photovoltaic industries, there will be countless repeated jumps in the process from 0 to 1, causing the capital market to go back and forth. The frenzy turned into an explosion, and the word difference was a world of difference.

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At present, virtual reality is in the stage of underestimating the bubble burst to the stage of steady climb recovery. Traditional consumer electronics such as mobile phones, TVs and computers are fully mature, and it is difficult to have breakthrough upgrades and innovations. The second growth curve must find new points. The possibility is virtual reality, which is why Google, FB, Apple, Huawei, Byte and other bigwigs have no hesitation to enter virtual reality. It’s hard to say which year it is, but in the next few years, virtual reality is likely to usher in a real explosion, which is likely to be like the explosion of smartphones such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicle industry chains in the past. So I will keep an eye on this direction for a long time.

As for how far the virtual reality of the market will come out, and whether it can reach the level at the end of last year, no one can guarantee it before it comes out, just like when the Xinchuang market first started, many people did not expect to come out. With such a big market, no one is 100% sure whether the Xinchuang market has come to an end or is only halfway up the mountain. The interpretation of each wave of the market is like this. When it first started, I was afraid of being cheated. When it rose to the middle of the mountain, there was a high probability that it was a good wave, but I was afraid of chasing the high market. After another wave, I couldn’t stand it and stood guard.

Now I plan to hold my virtual reality position until the global virtual conference on 11.12, because it is likely to be hyped again before the conference. If I feel that this wave of market prices exceeds expectations, I may increase related positions. It is also possible for the Xinchuang sector to pull back to a suitable point.

Recently, there have been a lot of pessimistic voices about the content of the press conference at 3:00 pm yesterday, and some people are afraid that the stock market is about to fall. What I want to say is that this superficial understanding should leave the stock market and dig potatoes!

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