A conversation with four public health experts: The biggest threat to the healthcare system is our fear of the virus

Original link: https://www.latepost.com/news/dj_detail?id=1423

On December 7, 2022, ten new measures to further optimize the prevention and control of the epidemic were released, which opened the prelude to a series of comprehensive relaxation of epidemic control across the country in the next few days. Nucleic acid testing is no longer required, the itinerary card is offline, and most public places are free to enter and exit.

But soon, a new situation appeared. Some people began to have symptoms of new crowns such as fever, cough, and muscle aches. The self-tested new crown antigen box also showed two red lines (confirmed positive), which caused more people to panic. , People began to hoard medicines and antigen test kits in large quantities. What’s more, they rushed to the fever clinic of the hospital as soon as they had a fever, and stood in a long queue for six hours.

If the past three years have taught us any real experience and lesson, it is that the scariest thing is never a virus. Several experts we spoke to said that if a nationwide infection hit, the worst-case scenario would be a medical run. The most effective way to prevent medical runs is to help people eliminate their fear of the new crown virus.

“LatePost” interviewed four public health experts. They are Wang Guangfa, director of the Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine of Peking University First Hospital, Yang Gonghuan, former deputy director of the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Wang Chenguang, former professor of Peking Union Medical College Medical College, and hope Anonymous chief physicians of infection departments of tertiary hospitals in first-tier cities, they shared their judgments on the new coronavirus, suggestions for personal prevention and treatment, anticipation of the epidemic trend and new challenges.

No virus is invincible. Before dawn, the whole society needs to work together. Professor Zhang Wenhong of Huashan Hospital Affiliated to Fudan University and his team issued an article calling on every member of every family to be the person in charge of their own health, to be the guardian umbrella of the elderly in the family, to support and protect them , “The new crown virus is not a disease for a single person, but a test for each family, a test for our society.”

I am infected with the new crown, what should I do?

“Later”: Under what circumstances is it necessary to self-test the new crown virus? What precautions?

Wang Chenguang: The self-test is usually done when you have fever or chills, cough, shortness of breath or difficulty breathing, fatigue, muscle or body aches, headache, loss of taste or smell, sore throat, congestion or runny nose, nausea or vomiting, diarrhea One or more of these symptoms, it is necessary to confirm the diagnosis of the new crown to distinguish other respiratory infections such as influenza.

This is especially important for high-risk groups. Once you have symptoms, test yourself as soon as possible.

“Later”: What kind of process will you go through if you are infected with a virus? What situation needs to go to the hospital?

Yang Gonghuan: At this stage of the new crown infection, more than 90% of the patients can avoid going to the hospital. For mild cases, you can take symptomatic medicine at home, drink plenty of water, and supplement large doses of vitamin C (a variety of vegetables and fruits, such as lemon juice, etc.) to get over it.

Wang Chenguang: Usually lasts 5 days – 7 days, it varies from person to person. Some people are asymptomatic, and there are differences in symptoms among those who have symptoms. Symptoms are usually fever, muscle aches, cough, sore throat, etc. For young people without underlying diseases, if they feel uncomfortable, some conventional antipyretic and analgesic drugs such as ibuprofen and acetaminophen can be used to relieve symptoms.

The following conditions require emergency medical attention: 1. Difficulty breathing; 2. Chest tightness and tenderness; 3. Drowsiness and confusion; 4. Purple skin and lips.

“Later”: What correct understanding should we have about the new crown virus?

Yang Gonghuan: Many people in China are still quite afraid of the new crown. Because of fear, many people may go to the hospital as soon as they have cold symptoms, and they mainly choose large hospitals. In addition, China’s medical referral system is not perfect. Anyone who is sick wants to go to a big hospital. If there are too many patients, it will easily lead to a run on medical resources.

If we can help the public get rid of fear through proper health education, and deal with the new crown epidemic in an orderly manner, so that more than 90% of patients who do not need to go to the hospital do not go to the hospital, generally there will be no medical run-off.

I am in New York, and I have been infected with the new crown myself. Even in March-April 2020, the epidemic in New York was very serious, and most people voluntarily stayed at home. By May 2020, although masks are still required in public places, many People do not necessarily abide by it, so the proportion of people infected with the new crown is very high. For those of us who are older and have a relatively small circle of activities, the proportion of infection so far is also close to 80%. A few days ago, I had dinner with a few friends, all of whom were over 60 years old. Six of the seven people were infected this year. Two were asymptomatic, three had mild symptoms, and one had severe symptoms, because Not vaccinated.

Therefore, judging from the experience of the United States, most people are very likely to be infected, and the possibility of secondary infection also exists, but the chance of severe illness is much smaller after vaccination.

“Later”: In the post-epidemic era, what can individuals do?

Wang Guangfa: The first person responsible for life and health is oneself. The basic measures are to protect your mouth and nose, control your hands, and stay away from places where crowds gather. That is, wearing masks, doing good hand hygiene, and not going to crowded places. These three are the most basic means for us to control infectious diseases.

For those who have underlying diseases or are older, they and their family members should be vigilant, maintain good communication with online or community doctors, and use smart devices to monitor health status, including heart rate, blood oxygen saturation, blood pressure and other parameters. It was obviously different, and I felt suffocated again, so I must go to the hospital for treatment.

Antibodies last for six months after infection

“Later”: Whether it is infected, and whether the severity of symptoms after infection is related to personal physical fitness?

Wang Guangfa: We must have a basic understanding of the new crown virus, that is, human beings are generally susceptible to the new crown virus, and you will not be infected if you are not strong. There is no doubt about this.

“Later”: Will there be repeated infection? And what factors are related to the re-infection of the new coronavirus after a person is infected?

Wang Chenguang: The main factors of repeated infection are firstly virus mutation, and the new strain has crossed the immune barrier established by previous infection; secondly, the immune function of the individual body, such as some other diseases will cause immune function to be impaired.

Data on re-infection with the same strain after infection with the current circulating strain is lacking, because this strain has only been around for about a year. Judging from the previous epidemic strains, there is usually a protection period of more than half a year after infection. Repeated infection is not uncommon. Taking New York State as an example, more than 6 million people have been infected for the first time so far, and the cumulative number of reinfected people is also close to 500,000.

“Later”: Compared with the first infection, will the symptoms of repeated infection be weaker?

Wang Guangfa: In theory, it should be much weaker. Immediately after infection, the antibody level is relatively high, and the possibility of reinfection is also small. However, one of the characteristics of the new coronavirus is that the antibody declines relatively quickly after infection. At present, it seems that the level of antibodies in the human body is very low after about 6 months.

“Later”: The antibody is effective for 6 months. If faced with a new virus variant, is the antibody still effective?

Chief Physician of a tertiary hospital: After the virus mutates, the escape ability against the original strain is getting stronger and stronger. We don’t know how much immune escape will be produced, but the subclades of Omicron still have cross-protection with each other. , but the protective power will decrease. It is impossible to say that it mutates to the point where it cannot be recognized at all.

People with poor immunity, the shorter the time of antibodies he acquires, the worse the protection. Six months after the infection has turned negative, the vaccine can be revaccinated.

“Peak reduction and epidemic mitigation” is a top priority

“Later”: Is now the most appropriate time to fully relax the prevention and control of the epidemic?

Wang Guangfa: There are two factors for the overall relaxation now. One is that the virus has changed, the transmission speed has increased significantly, and the pathogenicity has weakened. If it is high, the benefits will be minimal, and may even be reduced. When we do anything, we must consider the issue of cost and benefit. This is the most basic economic principle.

The second is that we have the conditions and have a full understanding of the virus. The country has received more than 3.4 billion doses of vaccines, with an average of more than two doses per person, and some people have received three doses. Although the immune barrier effect brought by the vaccine is not complete, the level of immunity of the whole people is not at the same level as that of 2020.

China is too big, has a large population, and the development between regions is very uneven. For example, the temperature difference between the north and the south is very large. Some experiences in the south may not be suitable for the north. In winter, the virus can remain active outdoors for a long time. The South could be dead in a few hours. Therefore, when we talk about epidemic prevention and control, we should not be so general. It has many details. The government should truly implement smart, scientific and precise prevention and control according to the situation in each region.

Yang Gonghuan: At present, the new coronavirus has mutated to a low fatality rate and is highly contagious. As the pathogenicity and infectivity of the virus change, our epidemic prevention policies should naturally change accordingly. The Twenty Articles and the New Ten Articles were released against this background. The reason why we have entered a new stage of anti-epidemic is naturally related to the prolonged period of lockdown, which has had a considerable impact on the lives of ordinary people and the local economy. It is also natural to comply with this call.

“Later”: Some experts believe that this summer is a more appropriate time.

Wang Guangfa: Winter is the season of high epidemic situation, which may bring certain difficulties. So we have to have a clear understanding and be fully prepared.

Chief Physician of a tertiary hospital: If we had let go at that time, of course we would have survived the epidemic, but the price we would have paid would be far greater than now, and the death toll would be even greater. It is necessary to balance various situations, including the decline of virus virulence, vaccination rate, drug reserves, and bed availability.

“Later”: The contagiousness of the new crown virus, how strong is it?

Wang Guangfa: Infectious diseases have a special index to measure the infectiousness of the virus. The symbol is R0 (Reproduction Number), which means that without any protection, an infected person will infect several people on average. The R0 of influenza is 1.5, the wild strain in Wuhan in 2020 is 3-6, and the current data of the Omicron mutant strain BF.

“Later”: If I wear a mask, I may be infected if I talk to someone about one meter away.

Wang Guangfa: It is also possible to be infected, but it is still much lower than not wearing a mask. The R0 of not wearing a mask is 18, and certain protective measures have been implemented, including wearing a mask, paying attention to hygiene and maintaining social distance. In this case, its replication number is about 8, and the transmission coefficient is reduced by more than 50%.

“Later”: Is widespread infection inevitable?

Wang Guangfa: In addition to the strong transmission ability of the new coronavirus, the transmission speed is also very fast. The index to measure the transmission speed in infectious diseases is called the generation gap, which refers to the time between the first generation of infected people and the emergence of the second generation of infected people. Influenza The generation interval of the virus is about 3 days. At that time, the wild strain in Wuhan was about 5 days, and the current Omicron is about 2-3 days. This is an objective reality. So there is a high probability that many people in our group will be infected.

“Later”: Next, what will be the goal of epidemic prevention?

Wang Guangfa: Our current goal of epidemic prevention is shifting from strict prevention to “slowing the peak and slowing down the epidemic”. What should be concerned is no longer how many people are infected, but to reduce the number of cases that emerge in a short period of time.

If 60% of the people are infected within a week, it is like a high tide falling down at once, and it will easily break the dam. If we can let it flow slowly, the number of cases will not be many in a short period of time. Medical institutions, The security department and infrastructure maintenance personnel can ensure sufficient manpower, and the operation of the whole society can be less affected.

“Later”: What specific changes will occur in the corresponding epidemic prevention focus?

Wang Guangfa: Focus on vulnerable groups, such as the elderly and people with underlying diseases. Medical institutions, pension institutions, and welfare homes are all places where groups with underlying diseases gather. Children with birth defects or serious illnesses, elderly people in nursing homes, many people have multiple underlying diseases, and even find it difficult to take care of themselves.

If they are infected, the severe disease rate and case fatality rate will increase. We must concentrate our existing resources, strengthen the protection of these people, and actively promote the vaccination of these groups.

For these groups, the first thing to do at the community level is to do a thorough investigation. They may not be sick, but in order to protect them, it is necessary to reduce their chances of shopping and going to public places. Therefore, the community must ensure their daily necessities and medical needs; Healthy, able to take care of themselves, try to reduce the number of face-to-face visits by children, and take protective measures when visiting.

If this group is infected with the new crown, in addition to community investigation, it is also necessary to strengthen capacity and mechanism construction in community medical care, online medical care, and Internet medical care. They should use effective antiviral drugs as soon as possible. It is very important to have an advance dose, and they cannot wait until they develop into severe cases before actively intervening. In some places, the number of ambulances must be increased.

The peak of the first wave of infections is expected to arrive at the end of December

“Later”: When do you expect the peak of the first wave of the epidemic to come?

Wang Guangfa: If we benchmark the global epidemic last year, it is still in the climbing stage. According to the epidemic curve, it may reach a peak at the end of December this year and early January next year, and it is expected to last until around the Spring Festival. It is necessary for everyone to maintain a certain degree of vigilance against the new crown.

We hope to reduce the peak as much as possible. If there are tens of thousands of cases in a certain area in a day, it will have a great impact on society. Even if 1% of the tens of thousands of cases are severe patients, there will be hundreds of cases. The medical system will be short-term. It is more difficult to deal with. If the peak number is one or two thousand cases, it can be dealt with. Peak shaving means that the number of confirmed cases is small, the proportion of severe cases is small, and the absolute number is small.

“Later”: What will we face after the adjustment of epidemic prevention and control measures?

Yang Gonghuan: The pathogenicity of the new coronavirus has decreased and has little impact on everyone’s health. However, as the epidemic develops, the risk of infection will increase. More people will be infected in the future, but as long as arrangements and guidance are made, it will not horrible.

According to the experience of other countries, in the next few months (usually two months), it is possible that in urban areas, the number of cases will rise rapidly, but the severe and fatal rates will generally be low.

Some people say that even though the case fatality rate is very low, China has a large population base and the total number of deaths is also large. However, according to the case fatality rate of Omicron, the total number of deaths should be similar to that of influenza. Every year, 10 million people in China leave the world, and various diseases will lead to death, such as a 90-year-old elderly, even a common cold may cause death. The new crown will increase some deaths, but weighing various losses and the secondary disasters caused by the blockade, although we do not want to see the new crown bring death, this is a reality we must face.

“Later”: What challenges will it bring to the medical system?

Wang Guangfa: The handling of the past epidemic has exposed some problems. Some people’s medical treatment and treatment have been affected. This incident must be avoided in the future. It is very important to ensure timely diagnosis and treatment of the elderly and positive patients with serious underlying diseases. Infection prevention and control.

Of course, with the rapid development of the current social epidemic and the fact that many patients and medical staff have already been infected, it is difficult to completely avoid the occurrence of nosocomial infections. The current epidemic situation is a huge challenge for medical institutions. We must try our best to ensure the resources for critical illness treatment, including the number of medical staff, the number of ICU beds, necessary treatment equipment, etc.; the details of the process must be done well.

We are about to face the arrival of the first wave of peak epidemics. We must plan ahead and plan well. This is a problem that medical institutions must use their brains to solve.

“Later”: What can the medical system do?

Yang Gonghuan: If we can get rid of people’s fear (more than 90% of patients do not go to the hospital) and deal with the new crown epidemic in an orderly manner, generally there will be no medical run. However, medical runs are still possible. The reasons are: 1) due to past propaganda, a considerable proportion of people are still afraid of the new crown; 2) China has not solved the problem of medical referral and the construction of the primary medical system.

Therefore, at this time, to prevent medical runs, the government and the medical system need to do the following three things:

1) To strengthen public health education, authoritative clinicians need to continue to tell everyone not to go to the hospital, but to go to the hospital only when certain conditions occur;

2) Strengthen monitoring of the use of medical resources and make adjustments at any time;

3) Carry out the system construction of medical referral, strengthen the construction of the grassroots medical system, and fundamentally solve the problem of running out of medical resources.

“Later”: Can you talk about the system construction of medical referral in detail?

Yang Gonghuan: This is a long-standing problem in China. Many people in China usually go to large hospitals when they are sick. Now during the new crown period, if they have a fever and go to large hospitals, problems will arise. So first of all, we must persuade everyone not to go to the hospital unless necessary.

Medical referral means that everyone first sees a doctor in a grassroots community hospital, and needs to be referred by the grassroots hospital before going to a large hospital. This is a question that many experts who study medical reform have been asking, but it has not been seriously implemented in China. The key to the realization of medical referral is that everyone with medical insurance should have a community doctor to pay attention to patients’ routine medical problems. Therefore, strengthening grassroots community medical services is the key to building a good medical and health service system. Whether the Health and Medical Commission can conscientiously strengthen the construction of the grassroots medical system at this time is the key to preventing medical runs.

“Later”: Three years of the epidemic, what is the evolution of the role of the shelter? What else can it do now?

Chief physician of a tertiary hospital: Fangcang can isolate the source of infection and block transmission, which is its greatest role. The second function is that it can help research and judgment in the early stage, observe mild and common cases, and refer to designated hospitals in time for severe cases.

In the past, the Fangcang Hospital was led by the Department of Infectious Diseases, with assistance from other departments. Now that the virus has changed (stronger infectivity and lower pathogenicity), most people’s focus is on basic diseases. The role that Fangcai Hospital can play It is very small, because the case needs a professional team, such as a case of heart disease combined with new crown, which requires cardiology consultation, etc. The main problem is the underlying disease, and the new crown is relatively secondary, and they need to return to general hospitals.

Vaccines can prevent severe illness, but not infection

“Later”: How strong is the protective effect of the current vaccine?

Wang Guangfa: After receiving the new crown vaccine, breakthrough infection is still very likely, and the protective effect of the vaccine is not complete. But the vaccine has its value, and the proportion of preventing severe illness and death is still quite high, 80 to 90%. For the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases, we must take comprehensive measures, including vaccines and drug prevention, and advocate early treatment.

“Later”: Some people worry that inactivated vaccines are not as effective as Fubita’s mRNA vaccines.

Wang Guangfa: There is still a lack of sufficient data. Everyone should have a point of view. It is better to have something than nothing. Our country produced vaccines relatively quickly. A vaccine for SARS was developed two years after the virus passed. At present, several domestic vaccines are certified by WHO, which can meet our basic needs for epidemic prevention and control.

We also have domestically produced effective anti-new coronavirus drugs, and we don’t necessarily have to use Pfizer’s Paxlovid. At present, our focus is to use antiviral drugs early and adequately for high-risk groups with severe illnesses, rather than to use antiviral drugs for low-risk groups with mild illnesses. No country can meet this demand.

Yang Gonghuan: At present, most of the vaccines against the new crown are not completely effective in preventing infection, but they can prevent severe illness. Of course, if there are imported vaccines, it’s good to have one more choice, but don’t say that domestic vaccines are completely useless now-it can prevent severe diseases and effectively help tide over this epidemic. Therefore, promoting vaccination should be the highlight of the next anti-epidemic action.

Wang Chenguang: Taking the recent situation of influenza and new crown infection in the United States as an example, in the first week of November, 13,000 people were hospitalized for influenza in the United States, and 730 died. The hospital fatality rate was 5.6%. It will be less than 5% in the first half of this year (it may be lower at present).

But the data behind this figure is even more revealing. The current reduction in the death rate of the new crown in the United States is at the cost of millions of deaths before, and it is the result of large-scale mRNA new crown vaccination and natural infection.

At present, Hong Kong and Singapore have basically entered the post-epidemic period. These two regions are relatively comparable in terms of population size, population density, population structure, socio-economic development level, and medical level. Singapore and Hong Kong, China reported similar numbers of confirmed infections, both between 2.1 million and 2.2 million; as of December 10, Hong Kong, China reported 10,935 new crown deaths, and Singapore reported 1,707 cases.

In the mainland, inactivated vaccines are mainly vaccinated, and there are almost no mRNA vaccines. Therefore, the current Singapore data cannot simply copy and represent the current situation of the epidemic in mainland China. Without the introduction of mRNA vaccines, the immune gap would need to be filled with most people infected.

“Later”: If we continue to use inactivated vaccines, does it mean that we need a fourth, fifth or even more injections?

Wang Chenguang: Judging from the experience of vaccine research and development, inactivated vaccines mainly induce humoral immunity, and it is difficult to stimulate cellular immunity. More doses are usually required to establish immune protection. How many doses are needed to achieve the purpose of immune protection needs to be verified by clinical trials (Note: The basic protection of the new crown vaccine required by Singapore refers to having received three doses of mRNA or recombinant protein vaccines, or four doses of Kexing inactivated vaccines).

The more vaccinations, the better. The risk of too frequent vaccinations not only magnifies the risks of the vaccine itself, but also the challenges (or pressures) to the immune system cannot be ignored.

“Later”: Some areas have begun to implement the fourth inhaled vaccine. Is it better than inactivated vaccines?

Wang Chenguang: The inhaled vaccine has not undergone large-scale clinical verification and lacks effective evidence. Compared with intramuscular injection vaccines, inhaled vaccines can establish respiratory mucosal immunity, somewhat simulating the infection process.

The new crown has little organic impact on people

“Later”: At present, is the new crown (the sequelae of the new crown) worth paying attention to?

Wang Guangfa: Any disease will have certain sequelae, including influenza. Don’t exaggerate the sequelae of the new crown. The new crown does not have a great impact on people’s organic (lung function, etc.), it will mainly cause some functional changes, such as fatigue, etc., through positive mentality adjustments, most of them can recover, don’t always think of yourself as a patient .

Chief Physician of a tertiary hospital: From the current clinical point of view, the sequelae of the new crown are not serious. Because most people with Omicron have very mild symptoms when they are infected, the possibility of respiratory sequelae is very small. In the past, people were mainly under psychological pressure, with anxiety and insomnia. Now that the epidemic has eased, everyone treats it with a normal mind, and this problem will decrease.

What is worthy of concern now is how much it will affect the underlying diseases. Many people report that their underlying diseases have become more serious after being infected with the new crown. Many of them are elderly people. With age and underlying diseases, some people will definitely become heavier or relapse, but it is worth studying how much it will be affected by the new crown. We can currently reduce this impact by allowing specialist intervention and treatment as early as possible.

Wang Chenguang: Strictly in the medical sense, there is still a lack of sufficient research on the long-term diseases caused by the new coronavirus infection. It is more a coincidence phenomenon. For example, I have severe eczema recently, and I have never had it before the new crown. It is easy for me to associate this eczema with the new crown infection. The new crown will indeed aggravate some basic diseases, but this is not a new crown.

Dr. Li Changqing’s article (https://ift.tt/X3ctdzy) mentioned that the media should not overdo it before the medical community has made relatively accurate and operable standards for the so-called long-term new crown. Exaggerating this concept, it is also recommended that ordinary people try to ignore this topic as much as possible. If people pay too much attention to the new crown and label many common symptoms as the new crown, they may ignore the issues that should be concerned. If it is a potentially serious disease, labeling it with a new crown will delay diagnosis and treatment; if it is a functional disease, labeling it with a new crown will lead to unnecessary examinations and medications; there are many symptoms that may themselves be mental and psychological problems. Putting on the hat of having a new crown will prevent some mental and psychological diseases from being effectively treated, and the consequences will be no less than the misdiagnosis of cancer.

The new coronavirus is likely to become a seasonal epidemic

“Later”: Three years of the epidemic, what is your biggest feeling?

The chief physician of a tertiary hospital: The biggest feeling is the lack of medical resources. We still have a big shortage in the reserve of medical staff and intensive care beds.

If the pathogenicity of this virus has not decreased, and it remains at the level of 2020, but after we have enough medical resources reserves, can we also let it go? This may be worth our afterthought.

As a doctor fighting on the front line, I have not seen that the hospital is actively expanding beds and building hospitals. It still shows that the bed reserve is not enough this winter. Of course, what I have seen is not comprehensive. We need to reconsider how to balance and match medical resources in third- and fourth-tier cities and rural areas in terms of solving medical resources, especially the unbalanced medical resources in various regions.

“Later”: Are the three major infections in Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Beijing the same virus? What is the direction of mutation of the virus?

Wang Chenguang: At present, it seems to be the same mutated strain. If there is another popular strain to replace Omicron in the future, there is a high probability that the epidemic is over, and the new mutation will be classified as the common cold virus, becoming the fifth coronavirus member of the cold virus.

Virus mutation has no direction, but the result of natural selection is that the mutated virus with strong transmissibility survives. Omicron can quickly replace Delta, and it is also true that Delta replaces the original strain before. Viruses with strong toxicity and high lethality kill the host, and the virus cannot spread. Therefore, there is almost no possibility of a deadlier mutant virus replacing Omicron.

The end of the epidemic must be a situation where highly effective vaccines and highly transmissible mutant viruses coexist—the high-risk groups are protected through vaccines, and at the same time, the high-transmissible mutant viruses quickly establish an immune barrier among low-risk groups.

“Later”: What will be the long-term development trend of the new crown virus? Will it become more pathogenic?

The chief physician of a tertiary hospital: It is difficult for a virus to have both pathogenicity and infectivity. If the pathogenicity is strong, it will tend to get pneumonia, and the infectivity will become weaker; if the infectivity is strong, it will replicate in the upper respiratory tract The higher the efficiency, the faster the spread, and the lower the pathogenicity. Even if the virus is highly contagious and pathogenic, when the symptoms become severe, everyone will pay attention to it, defense measures will be strengthened, and the virus can be easily controlled.

Although the direction of virus mutation is disordered, but with the selection of people, the overall trend is gradually weakening.

Wang Guangfa: At present, in the human host, the evolution direction of the virus is getting weaker and weaker. But don’t think that we will be ok after this one. The virus is likely to gradually become a seasonal epidemic disease in the future, and there may be a certain amount of distribution in normal times.

Humans are not the only host of the new coronavirus, as are many wild animals. Perhaps at some point in the future, the mutant strains of the new coronavirus in these wild animals will be transmitted back to human society, which may also cause serious cases. In fact, we have learned from the past. For example, H7N9 has no symptoms in waterfowl, and it does not die or get sick. Once it spreads to humans, the fatality rate is very high.

Of course, we don’t need to be frightened by this virus, but we must attach great importance to this virus from the perspective of basic scientific research, and study the evolution law of its spread in the animal kingdom.

Yang Gonghuan: Human beings themselves live among various bacteria and viruses, such as hepatitis virus, HIV… Therefore, in the future, the new crown will live together with humans in this world like other viruses and bacteria.

Zhu Kailin also contributed to this article