global macro

• The three major U.S. stock index futures fell together before the market on Monday

Major European markets including Germany and the UK were closed today for Easter Monday.

• “Asset Pricing Anchor” hits the most important trend line in history, and the 40-year bull market is facing an end

The bond market’s 40-year bull run is under pressure as U.S. Treasury yields hit “the most important trendline ever.” Carter Braxton Worth, technical analyst at Worth Charting, said a 40-year downward trend in interest rates may be coming to an end as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit resistance at “the most important trendline ever.”

• Geographic standoff continues, spot gold approaches $2,000

On Monday (April 18), spot gold rose nearly 1%, hitting a new high of $1,993.83 an ounce since March 11. The ongoing war in Ukraine reinforces risk aversion in the market and further exacerbates high inflation. The Fed is forced to cut water faster to fight inflation, which could also accelerate the onset of a recession.

• Putin: Russia withstands unprecedented pressure from the West

On the 18th local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia has withstood unprecedented pressure from the West. Putin said that Western countries tried to disrupt Russia’s banking system through economic sanctions, causing shortages of goods in Russia, but their attempts failed. Russia’s Central Bank Governor Nabiullina said that 52 foreign organizations from 12 countries have joined the SWIFT-like system established by Russia.

• Zelensky calls on the West to impose sanctions on Russia’s entire banking system

On the 17th local time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a speech that the West must impose sanctions on Russia’s entire banking system in response to Russia’s attempts to establish a ruble payment system in Kherson and Zaporozhye. At present, Russia has not responded to this. On the 18th local time, the air defense alarm sounded again in Lviv, Ukraine.

hot news

• Twitter employs ‘poison pill defense’ to thwart Musk’s takeover plans

On Friday, local time, $Twitter (TWTR.US)$ announced in a press release that the company’s board of directors unanimously approved a limited-term shareholder rights plan to reduce the possibility of other entities gaining control of the company through public market accumulation. The right will take effect if an entity, individual or group acquires 15% or more of Twitter’s outstanding common stock in a transaction not approved by the board, the release said. Under the rights plan, other shareholders will be allowed to purchase additional shares of common stock at 50% of the market price. The entitlement plan will run for one year, expiring on April 14, 2023. More details about the plan will be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the 8-K filing has not yet been made public.

• Tesla Shanghai plant is reported to be ready to resume production, providing employees with three meals and allowances

Tesla’s Shanghai plant has resumed production and has instituted strict epidemic prevention measures for employees working in the closed-loop system, according to people familiar with the matter. A memo sent by Tesla to employees shows that each employee will be provided with a sleeping bag and mattress. Given that there are no purpose-built dorms, employees will be required to sleep in designated areas, and there will also be additional spaces for showers, recreation (two facilities not yet completed) and meals, the memo shows. The company will provide employees with three meals and a daily allowance of about 400 yuan ($63), but the actual amount will depend on the position and level, one of the people said.

• U.S. court rules Musk deliberately published false information

According to local media reports, the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California ruled in early April that Musk’s public remarks in 2018 about “securing privatization funds”, then Tesla’s CEO, were “false and misleading.” The court found Musk made these statements recklessly and knowingly to be false. The court is scheduled to hear investor damages claims in May, and the plaintiffs have filed a motion to limit Musk from continuing to speak about the issue in public.

• The factory continues to shut down, and Tesla’s electric car production may be nearly 40,000 fewer than planned

Affected by the epidemic, $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Shanghai factory has been suspended for nearly three weeks. At a production rate of about 2,100 cars per day, the plant has produced about 39,900 fewer cars than planned since the March 28 shutdown. “Our base case for reopening is the first week of May,” said Junheng Li, founder and CEO of JL Warren Capital, a New York-based research firm. With this expectation, Li estimates that Tesla’s vehicle production may be higher than that of Tesla. A reduction of about 84,000 vehicles is planned. If surrounding cities also impose lockdowns, which could affect the supply of auto parts at the plant, Tesla’s production could be further reduced, Li added. However, the reopening of factories may also be sequential, and the restored capacity will “depend on the availability of parts and components available to Tesla.”

• Musk confirms Tesla will no longer give away mobile chargers with cars

Tesla has reportedly stopped giving away free mobile chargers to customers who buy new cars. Then Tesla CEO Musk said: “The statistics show that the utilization of mobile chargers is super low, which seems to be a waste. The good thing is that we will add more plug adapters to the mobile charger kit.” Tesla’s official website shows that the current status of the mobile charger is out of stock. Musk also said, “Based on the feedback we have received, we will reduce the price of mobile chargers to $200 and make the ordering process easier. If the owner has a Tesla wall-mounted charger or uses SuperCharger station, there is no need for a mobile charger. We recommend installing a Tesla wall-mounted charger before the vehicle is delivered.”

• ARK Fund gives Tesla $4,600 price target in 2026, bullish on self-driving taxi business

ARK Fund founder Kathy Wood set a Tesla 2026 price target of $4,600, after previously giving Tesla a 2025 price target of $3,000. Wood expects Tesla’s sales to grow 75% annually, well above the 25% consensus Wall Street is expecting. ARK analyst Tasha Keeney predicts that the future self-driving taxi business will contribute more than half of Tesla’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda). Under this model, ARK Fund expects total Tesla sales to reach $843 billion by 2026, of which $284 billion will be in the self-driving taxi business.

• The iPhone 15 is expected to be equipped with a periscope camera, and relevant suppliers have announced investment in building factories

According to foreign media reports, analysts had previously expected that some models of the iPhone 15 series of smartphones that Apple (AAPL.US)$ will launch next year are expected to be equipped with periscope cameras and support 10x optical zoom. According to the latest reports, Magneto Electronics, a South Korean camera module parts supplier, announced last week that it would invest 191 billion won (about 155 million US dollars) to build a new factory to produce new optical stabilizers. It is reported that the optical stabilizer produced in the new factory of Magnetized Electronics will be used in future iPhones. Apple will decide whether to adopt it next year.

• Bank of America’s Q1 revenue of $23.2 billion, net profit of $7.1 billion

Before the U.S. stock market opened on April 18, Bank of America (BAC.US) $ announced its first-quarter 2022 results. According to the financial report, Bank of America’s revenue (after deducting interest expenses) in the first quarter was 23.2 billion US dollars, exceeding market expectations, a year-on-year increase of 2%; net profit was 7.1 billion US dollars, compared with 8.1 billion US dollars in the same period last year; diluted earnings per share were $0.80, beating market expectations and $0.86 a year earlier. The financial report shows that in the first quarter, net interest income was US$11.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13%; non-interest income was US$11.7 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8%. Credit loss provisions of $362 million were released in the quarter, compared with $2.7 billion a year earlier. Average deposits rose by $240 billion, or 13%, to $2 trillion in the first quarter. The Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio (CET1) was 10.4% in the first quarter.

• Uber to integrate Rakuten payments into its Uber Eats app

Uber (UBER.US) $ will integrate Rakuten Group Inc.’s payment service into its Uber Eats in Japan and other Uber mobile app businesses,media reported. The integration with Uber Eats will be rolled out in stages by the end of the month, the companies said on Monday, which will allow Rakuten account holders to log in to Uber Eats without an Uber account and, at the same time, earn and earn money while using the app. Use their Rakuten Points.

• Goldman Sachs: Maintain Wells Fargo (WFC.N) Neutral rating, price target raised to $56

After Wells Fargo announced its Q1 earnings, Goldman Sachs analyst Richard Ramsden maintained a neutral rating on Wells Fargo (WFC.US) and raised his price target to $56 from $54. Ramsden said Wells Fargo’s core pre-provision net income missed estimates by 16% as weaker core fee income and higher expenses offset internal NII, but this was offset by more constructive forward guidance, The latter was “much stronger than expected”.

• Truist: Maintain Buy rating on Devon Energy (DVN.N), price target raised to $80

Truist analyst Neal Dingmann maintains a buy rating on Devon Energy (DVN.US) $ , raising the price target to $80. The analyst said that Devon Energy demonstrated operational and financial confidence in the meeting with Truist, “they have made no changes to their plan for a material return to shareholders and may again pay out more than 90% of adjusted free cash flow. “. Even though oilfield services prices are likely to rise in the second half of 2022, Devon Energy “seems to remain the industry leader and will ensure there are no production bottlenecks or cost spikes,” he said. He also pointed out that after a possible decline in production in the first quarter, Devon Energy is confident that production will rebound in the second quarter and remain stable.

• Morgan Stanley: Reiterates Overweight rating and $1,300 price target on Tesla

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated an Overweight rating and a $1,300 price target on Tesla (TSLA.US) . Adam believes Tesla will play a key role in re-architecting the renewable energy/transportation industry, while its traditional automotive business has natural advantages: 1) direct-to-consumer advantages; 2) multi-trillion dollar battery capex cycle , estimated that as much as $20-$40 trillion in cumulative capital expenditures and R&D will have to be spent over the next 20 years to move away from fossil fuels, of which only 1% has been spent and less than 3% has been allocated %. “We think Tesla is the ultimate battery capex game,” Adam said. “At a cost of $80 million per gigawatt-hour, the capex for battery manufacturing alone could be $1.5 to $3 trillion,” Adam said. Combined with other related aspects, potential spending could reach $10 trillion to $20 trillion or more over 20 years.”

Focus on Chinese concept stocks

• Most popular Chinese concept stocks fell before the market, Didi fell more than 18%

• Didi’s Q4 2021 total revenue fell 12.7% YoY

Didi released its fourth quarter 2021 financial report on the evening of April 16. In the fourth quarter of 2021, Didi’s total revenue was 40.78 billion yuan, down 12.7% year-on-year; in the fourth quarter, the net loss was 171 million yuan, compared with a loss of 7.23 billion yuan in the same period last year; the total revenue of China’s travel business in the fourth quarter was 37.47 billion yuan, down year-on-year 15.1%; international business revenue in the fourth quarter was 1.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.2%. The company also announced that it will hold a general meeting of shareholders on May 23 to vote on the delisting of American depositary shares. As of press time, Didi fell 19.11% before the market.

• Zhang Chaoyang: Sohu is not going to be delisted, it is unnecessary to slander Sohu and ridicule live physics classes

$Sohu (SOHU.US)$ founder, chairman and CEO Zhang Chaoyang posted on a circle of friends that Sohu did not intend to delist, “Some self-media writers know one thing and don’t know the other, and they write articles eloquently to criticize Sohu, It’s not necessary to ridicule my live physics class.” Sohu previously announced that on April 12, the company was included in the temporary designation list based on the Foreign Company Accountability Act (HFCAA) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). , the company does not intend to challenge the SEC’s provisional determination.

• NIO Li Bin steps down as director of Dida Travel

According to the Tianyancha App, recently, Beijing Changxing Information Technology Co., Ltd., an affiliate of “Dida Travel”, has undergone an industrial and commercial change, and the CEO of NIO (NIO.US) , Li Bin, has stepped down as the company’s director. Previously, Li Bin served as its executive position in 2015. According to the official website information, Dida Travel is an Internet travel platform that provides taxi and ride-hailing services.

• NIO has built a total of 900 battery swap stations across the country

On April 18, NIO’s power exchange station, Nanjing Jiangning Auchan, was officially launched. It is reported that NIO has built a total of 900 battery swap stations across the country, and NIO users have swapped batteries more than 8 million times. Weilai said that it will continue to deploy in the future. In 2022, it will build a total of 1,300+ swap stations, 6,000+ super-charging piles, and 10,000+ destination charging piles in the Chinese market.

• Station B responds to layoffs in live broadcast business: the future is one of the most important businesses, and it is actively recruiting

On April 18, according to the self-media “New Entropy” report, an anonymous person close to station B said that the live broadcast business department of BILI.US plans to lay off staff. The list has been preliminarily drawn up and will be restored in Shanghai. The layoff interview will be conducted after normal, and this layoff will affect the entire live broadcast department. In response to the above news, Station B responded to Jiemian News, saying, “The live broadcast business is in good condition, and gross profit has been increasing for three consecutive years. It will be one of the most important businesses of Station B in the future, and it is currently actively recruiting.”

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