[Tesla’s Competitive Landscape Judgment] Netizen Xiaoyao’s investment notes said, $Tesla (TSLA)$ Many people say that electric vehicles have little difference, the business model is not good, and they are not worth investing in.
The difference is small, and the business model is not very good. I generally agree, but I strongly disagree that it is not worth investing in. If you don’t believe in Duan Yongping and Laoba, then Apple, Moutai, and Tencent are probably the only companies with good business models in the world, and it’s hard to find others. In this world, a bad business model and small differences are the norm. A bad business model and small differences does not mean that you cannot make a lot of money, nor does it mean that you cannot create a great company. In an industry with a bad business model and small differences, if you do a good job in products, experience, and services, and be the first, you can also become a top company.
Back to the electric vehicle industry: Many people compare the mobile phone industry, saying that the mobile phone industry is difficult to make money, and that you see how hard it is for Xiaomi. I think the mobile phone industry is really suffering, because with Apple, no matter how hard you work, you can’t catch up. But even with Apple, OV Huami can still make money, and it can reach a profit scale of tens of billions. Without Apple, they will be more comfortable , more profitable. What about the automotive industry? Take the domestic market as an example, at least 3 trillion yuan, four or five times larger than the mobile phone industry. In addition, there is no such dominant and insurmountable company as Apple in this industry. It is much bigger than the mobile phone industry, and there is no company like Apple. The automotive industry is far larger than the mobile phone industry, and the opportunities are great. The scale and profits of companies that can enter the finals must be huge, and the profits must be more than 100 billion.
There is also a huge controversy over the electric vehicle software business. For example, Netizen Tranquility Dongri believes that from the perspective of automobile companies, they hope to change (adding software functions and providing value-added services can be used as a means of competition, but it is difficult to make automobile business based on network application revenue. core business). From the perspective of stock trading, that has changed many times!
It is difficult to change from the perspective of user needs. The network effect of the application ecology cannot be achieved by any company’s “identification”. Even if the realization of L5-level fully automatic driving is not considered at all to free up user time during driving, there are still many difficulties that must be taken into account:
1. There is an opportunity to replace less convenient applications with more convenient applications, so IOS has grown into another profitable tool under the eyes of the powerful Windows. But in turn, it is very difficult to have a chance. Therefore, the car phone has never been widely used since it was invented, and was eventually killed by the mobile phone. Because laziness is part of human nature.
2. Taking a step back, if there is really an independent ecological demand for in-vehicle applications in the future, since the number of car users is only 1/10 of that of mobile phones, the product price is equivalent to dozens of times that of mobile phones. Its proportion in the profit structure is negligible compared with Apple (Apple’s application service revenue accounts for 19.8%, and gross profit accounts for 32.8% of the total gross profit). The current mobile phone is actually not a phone, but a computer (Internet terminal). It is the Internet rather than the call function that makes the mobile phone have super commercial value.
So if Tesla really made such a determination from the beginning, it can only be a wrong determination. Of course, if fully autonomous driving is really realized, what will change is not the automobile manufacturing industry, but the transportation industry.
The difficulty in the automotive industry is that consumers pursue differentiation, but it is not easy for manufacturers to make differentiation. Is Tesla a relatively better new car company, or is it an Optimus Prime, Decepticon business, or even a Skynet business. Different people can have completely different views, such a world will be interesting.
So I often tell my friends that the advantage of a mature market is not that the stock price is more effective and it is easier to realize the “value” of investment. It’s about being able to express more freely and bet more freely. Personal wealth does not necessarily come from one person’s blind gambling. But social progress must be the result of countless people gambling blindly. Without fantasy, there can be no better future. Without utility, it will be difficult to obtain reliable long-term returns for investors.
——Investing in growth stocks like Tesla does face the cognitive barriers of overcoming Buffett, Munger and Duan Yongping. It is difficult to insist on independent thinking, and it is even more difficult to insist on rational and objective judgment. Fortunately, I have no worship complex, and everyone is just like-minded!
Tesla’s business model is basically established, but the corporate culture needs to recognize Musk’s entrepreneurial spirit, and the competitive landscape in the next ten or twenty years requires sufficient insight and foresight to predict!
Ordinary people invest in incomplete information, as well as various cognitive obstacles and difficulties. Excluding the short-term opportunity to make money in the market, they spend most of their time eating business insight.
If the long-term business prediction is right, it will make money; if it is wrong, it will lose money. It is essentially no different from starting a company by yourself.
Tesla is temporarily put on the shelf, let’s watch it while walking!
——2023.1.27 
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