Let me briefly talk about where the ultimate goal of this gold bull market can go. At present, the world’s total GDP has exceeded 100 trillion US dollars.
In 1975, the world’s GDP totaled US$6 trillion, and the price of gold was US$140-180 per ounce. Taking 1975 as the benchmark, gold could be between 2200-2900.
Let’s compare the troughs and peaks of the past few decades.
In 1980, the total GDP was 11.5 trillion U.S. dollars, and the highest price of gold was 880 U.S. dollars. By analogy, it is not too surprising for gold to reach more than 7,000 U.S. dollars.
In 2001, the total GDP was 33 trillion, and the lowest price of gold was 260 US dollars. By analogy, the price of gold should be 800 US dollars now.
In 2011, gdp was 73 trillion, and the highest price of gold was 1900 US dollars. By analogy, it can be more than 1600 now.
Of course, we cannot use this simple analogy to determine where the bull market area for gold is this time. More consideration should be given to the U.S. dollar index and the world pattern.
First, gold is used as the world currency. This view will not change for a long time in the future, unless technology has developed to core mining or planetary mining.
Second, the attitude of the governments of various countries. Please remember that the nature of buying gold by the government is not the same as buying stocks by stock funds. Most of the money for stock funds comes from investors, while the government buys gold, which will reduce the market transaction flow of gold. , In the situation where production cannot keep up with consumption, everyone think about what will happen in the future.
Based on the historical relationship between gdp and gold, the relationship between the US dollar and gold, and the relationship between gold and currency, the current trend of government buying gold will not be sold in the short term even if it declines. In the post-epidemic era, I slapped my head, and the gold bull market started from $1,600 At the beginning, the high point is at least above 2500, and the highest can reach 4000 US dollars, which can be reached within 3 years.
By the way, attach the previous two gold prediction webpage links , webpage link
I wish you all a happy new year and a smooth investment.
$Shanghai Composite Index(SH000001)$ $Shandong Gold(SH600547)$ $Intime Gold(SZ000975)$
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