Zhongtai Xingyuan, managed by fund manager Jiang Cheng, flexibly allocates public offering funds and will release the fourth quarter report of 2022 on January 20, 2023.
1. China State Construction continues to rank as the largest heavyweight stock, adding 4% of its holdings to Yangnong Chemical
Let’s take a look at position changes first.
We see that China State Construction is still the largest heavyweight stock in the flexible allocation of Zhongtai Xingyuan, with a holding ratio of 9.96%. The number of shares held has increased, mainly because the scale of Zhongtai Xingyuan Fund has expanded from 6.9 billion in the third quarter to 8.8 billion in the fourth quarter.
Vanke A’s position ratio decreased from 6.36% to 5.67%, and there was a slight reduction in positions.
China Merchants Bank’s position ratio rose from 4.47% to 5.61%, with a small increase in positions.
The biggest change in this quarter is the new addition of Yangnong Chemical, with a position ratio of 4.14%.
2. Zhongtai Xingyuan Four Seasons News “Fund Investment Strategy and Operation Analysis”
Jiang Cheng : In the fourth quarter, the market first fell and then rose. Looking at the whole quarter, the risk-reward ratio of the varieties in the portfolio did not change significantly. In addition, there was no major adjustment in the judgment of long-term fundamentals, so we did not make any special adjustments. Obvious operations, excluding passive transactions caused by changes in product scale , experienced a quarter with a low turnover rate as a whole.
The main contradiction in the market seems to be the expected change on the demand side, but our focus is on the competitive landscape on the supply side . Valuation is weighing, which is to discount the long-term dividend level across the cycle, so the periodic fluctuation of demand is not important, but the long-term dividend level is important . That is, short-term cyclical factors are not important, but long-term structural factors are important . The most important long-term structural factor is the competition pattern within the industry, and the decisive factor of the competition pattern is the difference in competitiveness among enterprises, not the slope of the demand side.
For us, the market cannot be predicted, only dealt with . Given the combination’s current comfortable state, we’ll wait and see what happens.
3. Analysis of the investment strategy of Zhongtai Xingyuan Four Seasons News
Boshi : The experience of reading Boss Jiang’s report is too smooth, and I really don’t know where to interrupt it. Just read it all and try to analyze it for your friends.
First, Boss Jiang also mentioned that the main transactions this quarter were passive transactions caused by changes in scale. We have seen that the proportion of holdings of companies such as China State Construction and Hualu Hengsheng has not changed much. The change in the number of holdings is mainly caused by the increase in scale.
Second, Boss Jiang mentioned the demand side and the supply side. He believes that the market is currently paying more attention to changes on the demand side. In fact, participants in the stock market are currently seeing changes in demand for economic development after the epidemic, so they have some optimistic expectations for corporate profits in the future, and thus optimistic expectations for stock prices.
However, Boss Jiang believes that the supply side is more important. In fact, it is the companies we invest in, the main competitive landscape they face, and whether these companies have formed increasingly stronger competitive advantages in the competition. Changes in the market cycle and demand may cause the profits of the company and its competitors to rise or fall in the short term, but in the long run, the competitive landscape of the company is getting better and better. No matter how cyclical the market fluctuates, its profits and returns will increase. is getting better and better. As long as the demand for the products provided by this enterprise always exists, the dividends that the enterprise can distribute to shareholders will increase because its competition pattern is getting better and better.
Third, Boss Jiang believes that the current combination is in a relatively comfortable state. And one of the core principles is “do not predict the market, only respond to it.” Therefore, at present, we mainly wait and see the changes in the market. In fact, it is waiting for the stocks that have been tracking to reach a buying opportunity with a margin of safety, or waiting for some stocks to rise to an overvalued selling opportunity. Or just wait slowly, because there may be a lot of time in the middle that neither has a margin of safety nor is it overestimated enough. The current portfolio, the valuation is not high, the cash is reasonable, for the fund manager, it is better than walking in the garden.
For more investment philosophy of Jiang Cheng, the flexible allocation fund manager of Zhongtai Xingyuan, please read “Revisiting Zhongtai Xingyuan Jiang Cheng” written by Boshi in September.
$Zhongtai Xingyuan flexible configuration mixed A(F006567)$ $Zhongtai Xingyuan flexible configuration mixed C(F012940)$ $Yangnong Chemical (SH600486)$
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