Read the last article of Fund Four Seasons News, this article is some interesting observations and conjectures.
Megatrend: Convergence
According to the adjustment of positions presented by the Four Seasons News, two adjustments surprised Mr. Lemon : one is Xu Yan, the fund manager of the in-depth value style, who bought chips and innovative drugs for ten. The other is $Guofu Small Cap Stock (F450009)$ fund manager Zhao Xiaodong, who prefers traditional industries, bought two medical beauty stocks into the top ten heavyweight stocks.
To put it in a more clichéd way, two senior fund managers are trying to expand their circle of competence, but this is also a general trend. Various investment strategies and methodologies are integrating as a whole . Maybe Xu Yan thinks that individual chip and innovative drug stocks have really fallen to an unbearable level, and Zhao Xiaodong is actually not a rigid person. If you have watched the video of him singing, you will think it is still very lively A person will still get in touch with new things, and people should not be judged by appearances.
In fact, this is also the realistic reaction of the current circle. If you want not to be eliminated, you must continue to improve and keep up with the trend of the times, including the evolution of methods and the expansion of your circle of competence. This expansion is on the road to integration.
Countercurrent is to stick to the original strategy method and circle of competence . If you take this step, you may have to make yourself more extreme and become a “tool man” that can provide higher flexibility than index funds. This is what the market needs.
Big Divergence: Suspense
After reading the Four Seasons News, I still feel the same way as before. Now the differences are really big, bigger than last year. There are many tit-for-tat opinions, which is why everyone sees that the hot spots on the market are scattered. There is no sustainable reason for rising one today and another tomorrow, and changing the line the day after tomorrow.
And when will this difference be narrowed, and what is the final consensus? It’s really a big suspense. It’s just that there are no signs yet. The battle is not over yet.
Value or growth? Large cap or small cap? Which topics and industries?
The above questions are difficult to answer, because you don’t have any answers that you think there is a way out. In the past two or three years, the market has been constantly filling holes, and now there are no big holes that the collective is optimistic about. Looking at the obvious holes, there are many controversies.
The value has been strong for two years, should it turn to growth? But the probability of a style continuing for three years is not low. As for the industry, there are even more opinions. And all of this needs to be answered by reality. To put it bluntly , the future is extremely difficult to predict, and certainty cannot be grasped.
General Direction: Funding
It is the fundamentals and the capital that drive the development of the market. When the fundamentals are difficult to grasp, perhaps the capital will play a major role. This may be a possible certainty . That’s right, I said “group”. The stock price is at least bought by everyone, and in the end we can only grasp this point… Maybe this is also the reason why fund managers have come out to shout frequently recently.
It’s interesting to think about it. For the sake of their own performance, fund managers now need to speak desperately in the arena. However, walking in the fund world depends entirely on the performance curve. For the sake of a good-looking curve, there is no shame in letting go, and it is shameful to say that the curve is not good-looking.
After achieving the championship on the track and determining the championship by macro allocation, this year’s performance champion may be a selected stock fund manager selected by funds. Rely on scale to boost performance. Of course, as for how to win the championship, the fund company actually knows better than me.
@今日读论# Interpretation of 2022 Fund Four Seasons Report#
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