As a sci-fi fan, one of my daily pleasures is to speculate on what will happen in the future. The following is a conjecture or a brain hole about the war. It is purely for entertainment. It is highly likely to be wrong.
With the development of AI and robotics, future wars will inevitably involve highly intelligent robots. This process may be divided into the following stages:
man-machine confrontation stage
At this stage, some powerful countries with leading technology have taken the lead in developing combat robots that can be used in actual combat. These robots may be fully automatic or remotely controlled by humans. In short, they are drones. The opponents are still human warriors of flesh and blood.
At this time, the war will be very cruel and bloody, and the price of the war will be very high for the technologically backward side, even if it is a lucky victory, it will be a tragic victory.
Total Robot War Phase
With the development of technology, robot soldiers are becoming more and more powerful. Although some adaptability may not be as good as human soldiers, their reaction speed and firepower far exceed human soldiers. The advantages of human soldiers on the battlefield are getting smaller and smaller, and they are gradually eliminated. Both sides fighting on the battlefield will be robot soldiers.
At this time, although the war is more intense than before, it is not so terrible for humans, because a war may result in zero casualties for humans. Of course, there is still a cost, but mainly in terms of economics, the cost of robot soldiers is getting higher and higher, and such wars will be more and more expensive.
virtual war stage
Compared with human soldiers, the performance of robot warriors is stable, and the combat power value is easy to quantify. Therefore, with the application of AI and supercomputers, the war will gradually be transferred to the simulated battlefield of supercomputers. Both sides of the war will input their respective combat units into the computer. Fight in a virtual world. Wars are still expensive at this point, but compared to real-world wars, the cost has been significantly reduced.
The confrontation in the virtual world may take many rounds, as in modern sports competitions, the winner is determined by the total score, and then the real interests are adjusted accordingly. In order to prevent cheating, after the virtual war is over, there may be human referees to carefully study and review the war data.
At this time, there may be wars between countries every day, but everything happens in the virtual world, but the real world is peaceful, and even the borders between the two countries that are at war may still be open. Each country has its own army of robots, but these armies may spend their whole lives in warehouses, without the opportunity and necessity to go to the real battlefield.
Even further, these robot armies don’t need to be actually manufactured, as long as you have enough raw materials and factories to make people believe that you can make enough robot soldiers in an acceptable time at any time.
To realize war virtualization, there are two conditions. One is to have enough computing power, and the other is to find a solution that everyone accepts to map the real combat power to the combat power in the virtual world. Both are indispensable.
Computing power is easy to understand. The second condition is how to ensure that the combat power imported by each country can represent its real combat power? For example, a country actually has only 1 million robot soldiers, but it claims to have 2 million. How to verify?
This may be an application of blockchain technology (or some more advanced technology developed in the future). Every weapon, every robot, and related raw materials and factory equipment produced by every country will pass through Blockchain records, and every state change of these combat units thereafter needs to be updated in the blockchain, so that perhaps countries have a recognized source of well-documented data.
Of course, the above three stages are ideal situations. In reality, it is possible that in the first and second stages, human civilization will be destroyed, or the Terminator will rule the world.
This article is reprinted from: https://oldj.net/article/2022/06/17/a-sci-fi-prediction-about-war/
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