1. For the concept of new energy and other new medicines, which are suitable for the valuation of the market dream rate, the amount of dream depends on the courage of the fund manager.
Second, for coal valuation, strictly follow cyclical stocks, with a price-earnings ratio of 10 times, most of which are 5-10 times price-earnings ratio. Similar to steel stocks, no matter how high your dividends are this year, you cannot escape this valuation system. Because your products fluctuate wildly, it is not guaranteed that the price of your products will drop by half next year. This is a valuation brought about by uncertainty .
3. Bank stocks are valued at 10 times, which is basically sky-high, just a little more than 10 times a year ago in Ningbo China Merchants. This valuation system lies in the uncertainty of funds against the black box of loans . Similarly, no matter how high your dividend is, it is such a valuation, 4-10 times, the high point of the black box is white, and the low point of the black box is black. This is an estimate of black box uncertainty.
Fourth, hydropower stocks such as Changjiang Power Huaneng Hydropower, etc., their advantages are stable performance, basically stable product prices, and cash receipts, then the valuation is a dividend of 3%+, 13 times the price-earnings ratio is basically iron bottom, because in fact, adding others The annual big pile of depreciation is really an iron bottom with a price-earnings ratio of 10PE. The reported price-earnings ratio is 18 to 20. As for a better height, large-scale fund managers are required to express their opinions. Hydro’s valuations reflect their high degree of certainty.
5. The valuation of consumer stocks is basically given in strict accordance with the growth rate of performance. It is up to the fund manager to decide the height. If the 0-growth performance can stabilize the dividends and stabilize the dividends, and immediately reduce the price-earnings ratio by ten times, if it declines, I am sorry that I can’t keep it, including Maotai Wuliangye once…. Therefore, for stocks with dozens of times the price-earnings ratio, it is expected that there must be growth, otherwise, there will be a halving and a halving.
6. Insurance is similar to banks. Financial stocks are at 10PE , and if the growth rate declines or other negative factors, they will immediately reach 5PE, such as Ping An of China. The same is because of the existence of black boxes, that is, uncertainty.
7. Infrastructure stocks, which are also black boxes , accounts receivable, real estate, and reported profits of 5PE, such as China Construction. It wiped out many great gods who were counting on double-clicking.
Eight, add that the companies on the chain of misery, under the current circumstances, will all move closer to below 10PE. Such as Beixin Building Materials, Dongfang Waterproof Mao.
9. Before 2017, due to the small number of brokers and the afterglow of the bull market, the bottom was probably at a price-to-book ratio of 1.2. After that, the real face was revealed, the valuation moved down step by step, the number of brokers increased, the capital was low, and the valuation fell step by step. It is normal for large brokers to break the net assets, and the performance is seriously unstable. The valuation reference price-to-book ratio is more appropriate. Under the current circumstances, breaking the net is the norm.
10. Valuation of alternative stocks, state-owned shell stocks in economically developed provinces, the market value of 2 billion is basically the bottom , regardless of performance. The value of state-owned assets in economically developed provinces. Be careful with private companies, they are worthless.
11. The valuation of shares of Baotou Steel Co., Ltd. is due to the delisting rule for A-shares whose stock price is lower than 1 yuan for 20 consecutive trading days. For a listed company of the SASAC that can still make a profit, it will never be because the company is still making a normal profit. If it falls below 1 yuan and delists, it must be held responsible. Therefore, this kind of alternative valuation. Baotou Steel Co., Ltd. Shandong Iron and Steel, etc., if the stock price falls below 1 yuan and 20 cents, boldly buy.
The above generally describes the current valuation ecology of A-shares. The secondary market attaches great importance to certainty. For companies with great uncertainty, the valuation is as high as 10PE, and the performance cannot reach 5PE or even below. Once the certainty comes up, valuations go up. When investing, you still have to buy something with great certainty, or something with a whiter black box. Otherwise, it is likely to be a trap.
Within the general scope of the valuation of an industry, funds will be valued at high and low levels based on the comparison of the same industry in the industry. The growth rate and certainty will determine the valuation differences of companies in the industry. For example, in the banking industry, it is relatively high. obvious.
That’s all I can think of, and if there are players who add it, I can continue to add it.
$ Industrial Bank(SH601166)$ $Kweichow Moutai(SH600519)$ $China Shenhua(SH601088)$
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