gist
The all-vanadium flow battery has the advantages of high safety, strong capacity expansion, long cycle life and low cost in the whole life cycle.
Advantage 1: High security and easy expansion. Lithium batteries are prone to internal short circuits and cause spontaneous combustion. From 2011 to April 2022, lithium batteries accounted for 32 of the 34 explosions in energy storage power stations around the world. The all-vanadium redox flow battery electrolyte ions exist in the aqueous solution, and thermal runaway, combustion and explosion will not occur; at the same time, the stack and electrolyte liquid phases are independent, which can increase the power storage capacity by increasing the stack power and electrolyte, and can be expanded in a 100 megawatt energy storage power station.
Advantage 2: Long cycle life, easy recycling, and low cost throughout the life cycle. Vanadium batteries have a long service life and can cycle up to 10,000-20,000 times; since vanadium only changes its valence state in the electrolyte, it can basically be completely recovered. The full life cycle cost of vanadium batteries is 0.3-0.4 yuan/Wh, which is already lower than that of lithium batteries (0.5 yuan/Wh).
Advantage 3: Vanadium resources are independently controllable. As of the end of 2021, China’s vanadium reserves account for 39% of the world’s reserves and 68% of the world’s production, ranking first in the world. However, China’s lithium reserves account for only 7%, and the resources are concentrated in Chile (41%), Australia (25%), and Argentina (10%).
Disadvantage 1: The high cost of initial installation is the biggest disadvantage. At present, the investment cost of vanadium battery projects is concentrated at 3.8-6.0 yuan/Wh, which is more than twice the investment cost of the current lithium battery energy storage power station (about 1.8 yuan/Wh).
Disadvantage 2: The rapid growth of vanadium batteries may drive vanadium prices up. Assuming that vanadium batteries account for 20% of new energy storage in 2026, in both conservative and ideal scenarios, the consumption of V2O5 is about 116,000 tons and 185,000 tons (4 hours of energy storage time). In 2021, China’s V2O5 output will be about 131,000 tons; if the development of vanadium resources is less than expected, the large-scale application of vanadium batteries will drive up vanadium prices and further increase the cost of electrolytes.
Disadvantage 3: Low energy density and lower energy conversion efficiency than lithium batteries. The energy density of all-vanadium redox flow batteries is low, only 12-40Wh/kg, which is lower than the 80-300Wh/kg of lithium batteries. Vanadium batteries need a pump to maintain the flow of electrolyte, so their losses are large, and the energy conversion efficiency is 70-75%, which is lower than that of lithium batteries (90%).
Vanadium batteries have great potential for long-term energy storage. McKinsey predicts that the cumulative installed capacity of global long-term energy storage (more than 8 hours) will reach 30-40GW in 2025, and 1.5-2.5TW in 2040 (8-15 times the current installed capacity of global energy storage systems). The all-vanadium flow battery demonstration project has been running for many years, the industrial chain is gradually formed, and the whole life cycle cost is low. It is a relatively mature flow battery for commercialization at present, and it is expected to be widely used in long-term energy storage. Guidehouse Insights predicts that by 2031, the annual installed capacity of vanadium batteries in the world will reach 32.8GWh (about 1.6GWh in 2022), with a compound growth rate of 41% in 2022-2031.
With subsidies and incentives for resource development, and technology-driven cost reduction, vanadium batteries are expected to grow rapidly. In terms of policy, subsidies can be used to reduce the initial installation cost, increase the production capacity of steel companies with vanadium-titanium magnetite, and strengthen the development of vanadium resources to expand the supply of vanadium. Technological progress and the substitution of domestic materials will further reduce the cost of vanadium batteries. In 2021, vanadium batteries will account for less than 1% of the installed capacity of new energy storage in China. Currently, there are several vanadium battery projects under construction. We estimate that the annual installed capacity of vanadium batteries in China will reach 3.0GW and 4.7GW in 2026 (assuming vanadium batteries). Batteries account for 20% of new energy storage, conservative and ideal), and the compound growth rate from 2021 to 2026 is 42% and 56%, respectively.
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