“Efficiency improvement and cost reduction” is the core of the development of the photovoltaic industry, and scale and technological progress promote each other. my country is already a global leader in photovoltaic scale, and how to “improve efficiency” in technology is the focus of the next stage. In investing, we need to focus on judgment is “the duration of a technology to maintain excess returns.”
Silicon material: Under the guidance of new battery technology, the development of p-type material to n-type material is a major trend, and the requirements for purification are higher; although granular silicon has certain advantages in cost reduction, the quality also needs to be further improved. Silicon wafers: Large size and thinning are important development trends, and continuous crystal pulling is an important means to improve efficiency. Battery: TOPCon, HJT, IBC and other technologies will start the gradual replacement of PERC. Different manufacturers choose based on their own strategies, showing a situation of contention; the choice of materials and processes will continue to promote the progress of battery technology. Modules: Shingled, MBB technology and module products suitable for more application scenarios will continue to be launched.
TOPCon, HJT, and IBC batteries are expected to take over from PERC, and each technology will gain excess returns due to the mismatch between supply and demand, thus forming the best time period for investment. According to CPIA, in 2021, the market share of PERC (emitter passivation and back contact) cells will reach 91.2%, and the average efficiency will reach 23.1%, n-type cells, mainly including HJT (heterojunction of intrinsic amorphous layer) cells The market share of TOPCon (tunneling oxide passivation contact cell) is about 3%, the average conversion efficiency of TOPCon cells is 24%, the average conversion efficiency of heterojunction cells is 24.2%, and the average conversion efficiency of IBC (interdigital back contact) cells is The conversion efficiency reaches 24.1%. In the future, battery technologies such as TBC (tunneling oxide passivation back contact) and HBC (heterojunction back contact) will continue to make progress.
In 2022, the mass production efficiency of TOPCon, HPBC and HJT cells is expected to reach 24.5%. TOPCon (Jinko) and HPBC (Longi) are expected to take the lead in breaking through. At present, cost reduction is relatively fast. Yield and grouping rate are the targets to be broken. HPBC is more suitable for the distributed market; while HJT (Tongwei, Maiwei) is waiting for equipment, After further cost reduction of thinning, silver paste and target materials, a relative advantage will be formed.
The biggest difference in crystalline silicon cell technology is the passivation mechanism and metallization scheme. In most photovoltaic cell structures, a highly active carrier recombination center is formed in the contact area with the metal. Passivation is to make the surface of the silicon material form defects and deactivate, thereby reducing the surface recombination of carriers – 1) Field effect Passivation: creating an electric field near the surface to repel carriers with the same polarity; 2) chemical passivation: weakening the interface electronic states by forming saturated dangling bonds.
PERC realizes chemical and field effect passivation through the backside aluminum oxide cover layer. In addition to satisfying surface passivation, the passivation contact can solve the loss caused by the highly active recombination center in the metal contact area by inserting a wider bandgap layer; TOPCon It is to prepare a layer of ultra-thin silicon oxide on the back of the battery, and then deposit a thin layer of doped silicon, which together form a passivation contact structure. In addition, passivated contacts are also widely used in other photovoltaic cell technologies such as HJT, IBC, etc.
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