Industry Views
Demand side: New energy drives growth, with a ten-year CAGR of 13% and 15% in the world and China. 1) In 2020, the power device & module market will reach US$20.9 billion, with a four-year CAGR of 7%, and the IGBT market will reach US$6.65 billion with a four-year CAGR of 14%. 2) We estimate that the global and Chinese IGBT market will reach 95.4 billion yuan and 45.8 billion yuan in 2025, with a five-year CAGR of 16% and 21%. In 2030, the global and Chinese IGBT market will reach 160.9 billion and 73.2 billion yuan, and the ten-year CAGR will reach 13% and 15%. Among them, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic & energy storage contributed the largest increment. 3) The value of a new energy vehicle IGBT bicycle is about 1,700 yuan. It is estimated that the global and Chinese IGBT market will reach 38.3 billion yuan and 20.4 billion yuan in 2025, and the five-year CAGR will be 48% and 54%. If SiC is considered, the potential market space is even larger. 4) The value of IGBTs in photovoltaic energy storage inverters accounts for about 7%, corresponding to a value of 21 million yuan per GW. It is estimated that the global and Chinese IGBT market will reach 10.8 billion and 7.6 billion yuan in 2025, with a five-year CAGR of 30%. Global in 2030; China’s IGBT market will reach 28 billion and 19.6 billion yuan, with a ten-year CAGR of 25%. 5) In 2025 and 2030, the global industrial IGBT market will reach 26.6 billion and 32.2 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 4% in five and ten years.
Supply side: Thanks to the tide of shortages and rising prices, the localization rate of the industry is expected to reach 38% in 2022. 1) Infineon is the absolute leader in the IGBT industry, with a market share of 30%; the domestic company Zhongshilan has a global market share of 2.6% and 1.6% for IGBT single-tube and IPM modules, ranking tenth and ninth. Star Semiconductor has a global IGBT module market share of 2.8%, ranking sixth. The localization rate of the industry is relatively low, and the self-sufficiency rate of domestic production in 2019 is only 12%. 2) Since 2020, the demand side has benefited from the outbreak of demand for new energy vehicles and photovoltaics. The overseas epidemic situation on the supply side has repeatedly restricted overseas production capacity, and the supply and demand of IGBT has been unbalanced. Up to 39 to 50 weeks. We estimate that the IGBT revenue of domestic listed companies will reach 3.1 billion and 5.7 billion yuan in 2020 and 2021, an increase of 59% and 88%, and the localization rate will reach 17% and 25%, an increase of 5pct and 8pct. 3) Looking forward to 2022, the imbalance between supply and demand will run through the whole year. Overseas manufacturers are generally cautious in expanding production, and the increase in capacity is limited. The process of localization rate depends on the speed of production capacity release. We estimate that domestic production capacity will increase by 90%+ in 2022, and the localization rate is expected to be increased. increased to 38%.
Barrier side: technical barriers + customer barriers + capital barriers are high, and the industry has an obvious first-mover advantage. 1) The core technology of IGBT is the design and manufacture of IGBT chips and the design, manufacture and testing of IGBT modules, which requires extremely high personnel and equipment. 2) The industry certification cycle is long, and the vehicle-level certification cycle is as long as 2 to 3 years. The first-mover advantage of designated enterprises is obvious. 3) IGBT manufacturing is a capital-intensive industry, and the investment in an 8-inch wafer line with an annual output of 250,000 pieces exceeds 2 billion yuan.
On the financial side: domestic companies have better growth potential, and overseas leading companies have higher gross profit margins and higher R&D rates. 1) Thanks to the localization rate, the growth of domestic companies in the past five years is better than that of overseas companies. From 2016 to 2021, Star Semiconductor’s revenue and net profit attributable to the parent’s five-year CAGR reached 42% and 79%, leading the industry. In Q1 2022, Star Semiconductor’s revenue and net profit attributable to the parent will increase by 67% and 102%, leading the industry. 2) The gross profit margin of overseas leading companies is higher and more stable, and the profitability of some domestic companies fluctuates greatly due to the impact of the price cycle. Overseas companies have higher R&D expenses, higher R&D rates, and shorter account periods.
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