The current war between Russia and Ukraine is ups and downs. The US political elites intend to use the chaotic situation to win over Europe to join forces to deal with China, while the US-European strategic research community cooperates with the United States and follows suit, dividing Sino-European relations, and launching a discussion on “whether China has lost Europe”, giving the The turbulent international community casts a darker shadow.
Since mid-April, the United States has frequently advocated “the United States and Europe are united in the same spirit”, urging Europe and the United States to join forces to deal with China’s “threat”. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen delivered a speech at the Atlantic Council on April 13, and delivered a keynote speech at the Brussels Economic Forum on May 17, calling on the United States and Europe to coordinate in the fields of technology, industry and supply chain to jointly exclude China and Russia . U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Sherman led a delegation to visit Europe in April and discussed with the European External Action Service on how to coordinate policy toward China; on June 2, he emphasized to European reporters that “China has been challenging Europe’s security, economy and values” and called on Europe to help America against China. In May, the “US-EU Trade and Technology Council” held its second meeting in Paris and made a similar statement.
At the same time, some experts and scholars from the United States and Europe, especially some experts from European think tanks, echoed each other, and sang the relationship between China and Europe, and even raised the proposition that “China has lost Europe”. On April 19, Ortell, director of the Asia Program of the European Council on Foreign Relations, wrote that the war in Ukraine highlighted the “institutional competition” between China and Europe. On April 22, scholars from the “Mercator Institute of China” issued a document attacking Sino-Russian interactions, arguing that China and Central and Eastern Europe have parted ways. Since then, scholars from European think tanks such as the “Romanian Asia-Pacific Institute” and the Berlin branch of the Germanic Marshall Foundation have published papers, putting forward similar views. On June 10, Jiang Yien, a well-known American expert on China issues, published an article on the website of Foreign Affairs magazine, making the judgment that “China’s diplomacy with Europe has failed”. Under the influence of this trend of public opinion, at the end of May, three top European think tanks, the German “Politics and Science Foundation”, the French “Montaigne Institute” and the British “European Reform Center” jointly launched a research report, proposing the “restart” of Europe’s strategy towards China. Suggest. There is also a debate about whether Germany should reshape its China policy.
Needless to say, China-EU relations have encountered many obstacles since the beginning of last year: the China-EU Investment Agreement has been frozen, the mutual sanctions between China and the EU have not been lifted, and the report passed by the European Parliament on June 7 declared that China “poses a threat” to EU interests in the Indo-Pacific region. However, China-EU relations are like a prism. Different angles and levels have different colors and connotations. The dark side of conflict and confrontation coexists with the bright side of benign cooperation. In fact, the structural elements that bind China and Europe are still there, and they are fairly solid.
First of all, China-EU economic and trade relations still have significant complementarity and profound potential for cooperation, which is determined by the differences in resource endowments between China and Europe, and will not change in the short term. Since the beginning of 2020, China has surpassed the United States to become the EU’s largest trading partner. In 2021, although China and Europe are at odds from time to time, the annual growth rate of China-EU trade volume will hit a record high of 27.5%. For the past six years, China has always been Germany’s largest trading partner. After the outbreak of the epidemic, European political elites fell into a myth, repeatedly discussing how to get rid of Europe’s “supply chain dependence” on China, but the economic operation of China and Europe has shown vigorous vitality. In the current situation of soaring prices, Europe is even more inseparable from the import of Chinese goods. The European business community will not feel that “China is losing Europe”.
Second, if Europe wants to continue to implement a series of policy frameworks closely related to global governance, such as digital transformation, green new deal, and cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region, it is inseparable from cooperation with China, which is determined to a certain extent by China’s huge size. When the EU talks about China, “contact” and “dialogue” are still high-frequency keywords. A series of EU documents on the “Indo-Pacific Strategy” all expressed the need for “multi-level engagement” with China. After the China-EU Leaders Summit in early April, the European Commission issued an announcement not only expressing its intention to engage in “constructive engagement” with China, but also to continue high-level engagement with China in areas such as market access, climate and environment, digital economic cooperation and human rights. dialogue. President Xi Jinping held a video meeting with German Chancellor Scholz on May 9, and when he had a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron on May 10, the German and French leaders used terms such as “dialogue”, “consultation” and “coordination” many times. Long even said there was a “consensus” on Ukraine in the law. It can be seen that the European administration still attaches great importance to communication and cooperation with China.
Thirdly, the strategic culture formed in Europe after World War II determined that Europe could not completely turn against China. Most of the time, it would flicker between China and the United States, dealing with both sides, so as to maximize its own strategic space. As the origin of the modern nation-state system, Europe is not only well versed in the theory of balance of power, but also has a strong sense of cultural self-esteem and political autonomy, and is never willing to accept the total control of extraterritorial superpowers. During the Cold War, the United States provided security for Europe, but France’s “Charles de Gaulle” and West Germany’s “New Oriental Policy” showed the distinct character of Europe’s independence from the United States. Although the current American think tank advocates the establishment of a “democratic alliance” led by the United States, and the olive branch frequently displayed by the Biden administration has also received a certain degree of response from Europe, European political elites have also repeatedly talked about the European Union “to be a global competitor, not a global competitor.” global arena”, anxious about Europe’s marginalization in the international community, and unwilling to be completely tied to the American chariot.
For a long time, the EU has regarded itself as a “normative” force and exported “postmodern” rules to the world. However, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict shattered the “postmodern” dream and forced Europeans to return to the “modernity” full of geostrategic competition. China and Europe are of the same size and are far apart. There is no direct conflict of strategic interests, but there is a huge potential for economic cooperation. Europe, which has the richest geopolitical history, knows how to adjust the balance between China and the United States. Therefore, “China is losing Europe” is a false proposition.
Xin Hua, Director of the European Society of China, Director of the Center for European Union Studies at Shanghai International Studies University.
Source: China Time Insights, June 27, 2022
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