Titanium Media App reported on August 27 that the CICC research report pointed out that there is a recent view in the market that as the downward pressure on the U.S. economy increases, the Federal Reserve will slow down raising interest rates and start cutting interest rates sometime next year. We think this kind of thinking may be premature. Standing at the moment, we should not have too much hope for interest rate cuts. After the FOMC meeting in July, Powell made it clear that he would not give up monetary tightening because of negative GDP growth in a certain quarter. In his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Forum, he once again hinted that the Fed will not take it easy until inflation has not fallen significantly. let go. In addition, Powell also mentioned that the June dot plot predicts that the federal funds rate will be slightly below 4% by the end of 2023. In view of this, we expect the Fed to continue raising interest rates until 2023. If the non-farm employment and CPI data in August perform well, we cannot rule out another interest rate hike by 75bp at the meeting on September 22.
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Related events
- CICC: It is expected that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates until 2023, and does not rule out another interest rate hike by 75bp at the interest rate meeting on September 22 2022-08-27
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- The Fed will no longer provide clear interest rate hike guidance2022-07-27
- US Senate approves Michael Barr as Fed’s vice chairman for financial affairs supervision2022-07-13
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