Construction industry: BIPV is in the limelight, who will emerge? (with report)

Summary

Recommendation logic: (1) Under the guidance of the “dual carbon” goal, the low-carbon development of the construction industry has become an inevitable trend. Policy support and photovoltaic parity will drive the development of the industry. Superimposed the high-profile entry of central construction enterprises to send a positive signal to the market, BIPV has a competitive advantage It highlights that the penetration rate in distributed photovoltaics is expected to exceed 75% by 2025; (2) The BIPV market has an imaginary space of more than 100 billion yuan. With its high rate of return and low payback period, the penetration rate of industrial and commercial rooftop BIPV has reached 15% in 2020, becoming the Market breakthrough; (3) Cross-border cooperation between construction and photovoltaic companies, and the industry’s development prospects are gradually improving.

BIPV—The upgrade of traditional distributed photovoltaics, and new application directions continue to emerge: From the perspective of newly added photovoltaic power generation grid-connected installed capacity, distributed photovoltaics will increase by 29GW in 2021, a year-on-year growth rate of 87%, and the market share will continue to increase. The development trend of simultaneous development with distributed is obvious. In distributed power stations, BIPV is superior to BAPV in terms of appearance, life, force, waterproofing and construction. It has huge growth potential and belongs to the system integration link in the midstream of the industry chain. The current pattern is uncertain, attracting photovoltaic and construction companies to enter the market.

Building energy consumption, policy support, and affordable access to the Internet are the “three-wheel” driving force for industry development. my country’s construction industry carbon emissions account for more than half of the country’s total. The low-carbon development of the construction industry is closely related to the “dual carbon” goal. The development of green and low-carbon buildings will inevitably become the first choice for industrial buildings. At the same time, the government attaches great importance to photovoltaic power generation, and has issued a series of documents with specific goals around BIPV to encourage the development of the industry. State-owned buildings have taken the lead in increasing the market share of BIPV. Various localities have also actively responded, and subsidy policies have been implemented one after another. It also sent a positive signal to the market. In addition, in 2021, photovoltaic power generation will advance from “subsidy-driven” to “demand-driven”, and the market-oriented electricity price environment will help the development of distributed photovoltaics represented by BIPV.

The potential scale of BIPV exceeds 100 billion, aiming at the huge blue ocean market of industrial and commercial roofs. The total installed capacity of the current BIPV incremental market is about 8.8-11.7GW, corresponding to a market size of about 43.8-58.4 billion yuan, and the potential market size of BIPV for existing buildings is about 2.9-3.9 billion. The construction market will gradually increase volume. According to the calculation of each market segment, the investment recovery period of industrial and commercial roof BIPV is 1-3 years shorter than that of residential roof BIPV, and the internal rate of return is higher. At the same time, the industrial and commercial roof area is larger and flatter, and the power generation efficiency is high. In 2020, the penetration rate of BIPV on industrial and commercial roofs will be as high as 15.0%. Under the background of carbon neutrality, the importance of installing BIPV on industrial and commercial roofs is further highlighted, and it is expected to become a breakthrough in the market.

The cross-border cooperation between construction and photovoltaic companies is expected to benefit both in the early stage of the industry. The BIPV field has a huge imagination, and many companies are competing for the BIPV blue ocean market. Judging from the current market structure, BIPV’s main competitors include building steel structure companies, building decoration companies, photovoltaic module companies, etc. Photovoltaic and construction companies carry out cross-industry cooperation and can integrate resources such as technology, customer acquisition, and design strength in the short term. , and benefited first in the early stage of industry development.

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